Browsing by Author "Guzek, Marian"
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Item Badania nad optymalizacją rozmiarów handlu międzynarodowego (model J. Tinbergena)(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1966) Guzek, MarianThe purpose of the paper is to get acquainted the Polish reader with the econometric model of J. Tinbergen and — if applied — with the obtained results of statistical analysis as well as J. Tinbergen's interpretations. The author undertakes also an attempt to assess the usefulness of said model to the optimization of international trade of the socialist countries. Stressing the undisputable valours of J. Tinbergen's analysis and not questioning the possibilities of adapting this model for the assessment ex post of the level of international trade within the countries of the socialist camp — the author draws attention to some difficulties related with the extrapolation of said model. The above mentioned difficulties originate from the methodological traits of Tinbergen's model as well as from the different principles which govern the international trade in the socialist and — on the other hand — in the capitalist countries. The Tinbergen's model is lacking the optimization criterion. As a basis for the assessment of the volume of international trade of various countries serves the average level of trade (on the international scale), which is also being defined as a „standard level", „normal", or „ideal" level. From the optimization point of view that criterion does not offer a possibility to assess the international turnover for a group of countries. Furthermore, it does not permit to assess positive deviations from the „ideal" level. The Tinbergen's model does not take into consideration the efficiency problem of international trade. This problem is very essential in the conditions of socialist economy, since there is no automatic mechanism of international market, which regulates the volumes of exchanges according to the degree of profitability of transactions. The adaptation of said model to the socialist economy is also very problematical, especially in the ex ante analysis, for which the extrapolation of the parameters values — would be a very practical solution.Item Istota i cel integracji gospodarczej(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1969) Guzek, MarianAfter a short presentation of prevailing theoretical conceptions of international economic integration the author underlines the fact that most definitions neglect the social aspect of the phenomenon. In his opinion, a synthetical expression of this aspect is the process of narrowing the gap either in consumption or national income per capita between the integrating regions or countries. Considering this process a necessary component of economic integration, the author describes the latter as a process of developing such economic relations which do not enlarge the territorial disproportions between the countries but facilitate the opposite effect. Assuming that the above aspect is included in the concept of economic integration, the goal of integration policy can be formulated as a long-run maximization of the rate of growth in the integrated territory as a whole.Item Korzyści z handlu zagranicznego(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1963) Guzek, MarianItem Planowanie międzynarodowe i jego rola w integracji krajów RWPG(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1970) Guzek, MarianConsidering the possibilities of improving the planning links among the member- -states of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, the author distinguishes three forms of the international scale planning activities: 1) modified coordination of national economic plans; 2) programming of the international division of labour; 3) joint economic planning. The article deals with the third form which is considered to be the most controversial one. Two extreme views known from the literature are critically examined. The first one treats the joint planning as a supra-national activity based on the rules of directive planning and therefore unrealistic. The second one acknowledges the present coordination procedure as a sufficient symptom of the joint planning. Considering this view as inadequate, the author makes an attempt to formulate the rules of indirect international planning. He suggests that such a form of planning would not require supra-national authority. It has been presumed, however, that an international planning centre representing the member-states might modify the actual institutional and economic conditions and introduce a coherent system of stimula promoting the implementation of the joint plan. Besides, the assumption was made that the plan itself would have to be ratified by the member-states.Item Polityka handlu zagranicznego a konsumpcja indywidualna(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1967) Guzek, MarianIn the first part of the paper the author dwells on relations between the policy of foreign trade and the criterion of consumption maximization. Analyzing the consequences for the policy of foreign trade in case the criterion of consumption maximization prevails, the author comes to the conclusion the said criterion cannot constitute a sufficient premise for the rationalization of foreign trade. The structural consumption restrictions (and among them market disproportions) can be looked upon as an alternative of restricting the consumption fund. The planning body can thus consciously fix structural restrictions of market supplies — which the policy of foreign trade should strictly respect. It is only after taking into consideration — besides the criterion of consumption maximization — additional circumstances, such as the social costs sustained in conjunction with the disparity between the supply structure with the demand structure and the tendency of natural elimination of restrictions by the population itself (by means of individual contacts with foreign markets), that the author comes to the conclusion, that the market disproportions are irrational phenomena and as such, should be liquidated. The policy of foreign trade should be subordinated to that particular aim — as it still has at its disposal many ways and means of correcting the supply structure of market commodities. Consequently, the author proposes: — to treat the actual market prices as parameters for undertaking decisions in the field of current policy of foreign trade, — to take into consideration the disparity i market price relations in the Comecon countries.Item Rozwój systemu społeczno-politycznego w Polsce i współpraca z Zachodem: dotychczasowe tendencje i prognozy na lata osiemdziesiąte(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1983) Guzek, MarianThe article attempts at juddgement of roots of Polish crises taking the international conditioning into consideration. There are variants of forecasts for the eighties formulated, on the grounds of the observed tendencies in the aspect of evolution of social and economic system and the cooperation with the West. Two regressive „paths" are distinguished which require substantial curbing; of links with the West as well as two progressive ones implying further inflow of accumulation of outside from the West. The variant resting on the assumption of extrapolating main trends of seventies is considered by the author to be the most probable. It involves also the tendency of further structural hybridization without removing the main reasons of inefficiency of the economic system i.e. lack of correct political verification of macroeconomic decisions and lack of mechanism of optimum investment allocation and motivation system. There is also a forecasting variant presented which implies a reduction of social antagonisms by means of the national compromise providing facilities for a transition to the real national State organized according to the rules of inclusive socialism (including a society in the process of exercising political and economic power). These rules should capacitate creation of the new economic model different from the Hungarian and Yugoslavian ones, which in the opinion of the author, do not ensure a correct utilization of external and internal accumulation and are likely to induce crises. Yet, this forecasting variant (labelled the path 4) is considered by the author to be the least probable on account of the adverse structure of social powers and a lack of practical experience.Item W sprawie programowania międzynarodowej specjalizacji produkcji(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1976) Guzek, MarianThe author points out that the research work being an object of W. Samowol's "Observations", was intended to bring practical solutions, therefore its task was to adjust theoretical conceptions to the actual economic conditions. The theoretical solutions themselves had been worked out and presented in other publications. They have not been, however, mentioned by W. Samowol. The author has not confirmed a reservation on uncomparability of the two variants, showing that the reservation was caused by an incorrect interpretation of the numerical elements of calculation.Item Zasada kosztów komparatywnych w dynamicznym modelu międzynarodowych stosunków gospodarczych(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1965) Guzek, Marian