Browsing by Author "Janc, Alfred"
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Item Analiza kosztów i korzyści w ocenie przedsięwzięć inwestycyjnych(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1984) Janc, AlfredPresentation of essentials of the cost-benefit analysis system is the task of the article als well as indicating at potentials of that system for theoretical propositions and practical conclusions recently drawn and aimed at means of functioning of Polish economy. The author characterises sources of the cost-benefit analysis concept, solutions adopted in that system, assessments of investments projects, and relations of the CBA with such branches of knowledge as political economy, econometrics and planning. The author focuses on problems of shadow prices upon indicating at differences characterizing the modern social cost-benefit analysis as compared to traditional financial measures of private payability. To simplify the matter, calculation of shadow prices is one of the stages in the three stage process of estimating social payability of investment ventures. The other stages define a target function to be maximized and formulate a decisional criterion which is to facilitate inputs of perceived social costs and benefits to a form which enables comparing the investment project with other alternatives, and in consequence, its acceptance or rejection. It is stated by the author that in spite of the last two decades of animated discussions, of numerous improvements in theoretical formula and practical applications, there is no entire consent to the CBA procedures which could be named universal and serve as guidelines in all situations. It is also painted out that various elements present in the cost-benefit analysis and referring to theoretical grounds of that system have already been utilized in practice eg. of the Polish planning or investment effectiveness calculus. That particular fitness of the cost-benefit analysis for the centrally planned economies has been often emphasised by authors studying the CBA.Item Analiza zakupów jako podstawa polityki handlowej przedsiębiorstwa(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1978) Pawelke, Günter; Heinicke, Karl; Janc, AlfredThe authors take up an attempt to determine goals which should be fulfilled by a comprehensive, deepened purchase analysis in a socialist enterprise. Results of the analysis can be used as premisses of planning and — broadly understood — commercial policy carried on by an enterprise management. The starting point in purchase planning is the populations demand which should constantly find reflection in production. Simultaneously, due to decisions in such spheres like choice of merchandise flow, determination of amount and assortment structure of commodities, delivery terms, kinds of transport and packaging, one should aim at intensification of commercial activities. The purchase analysis in a commercial enterprise — according to the authors concept — should consist of three sectoral analyses (analysis of a merchandise purchase plan, analysis of connections in the sphere of co-operation and merchandise deliveries, and analysis of evaluation of merchandise purchasing in an enterprise) and of a cross-sectional analysis. Among sectoral analyses the authors distinguish so called research problems, solution of which enables comprehensive accomplishment of the merchandise purchase analysis. Its results can create a basis of proper operative decisions undertaken by an enterprise management as well as for determination of a long-term commercial policy.Item Aspekty metodyczne prognozowania cen światowych dla potrzeb krajów RWPG(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Janc, AlfredIn the process of — widely understood — using would market pirices for the needs of the CMEA, several stages can be distinguished. Effectiveness of the whole process is determined by realization of those stages. Following stages should be marked off: (1) approval — by the CMEA countries — of using world market prices in definite spheres of mutual co-operation; (2) choice of organizational forms of forecasting world market prices within the CMEA; (3) selection of methods and techniques of foreassting, adequate for a given commodity and for certain sphere of co-operation; (4) realization of the foreassting process and forecasts verification; (5) introduction of forecasts to mutual enterprises undertaken by the CMEA-countries in the sphere of production and trade. The author occupies himself with methodical aspects of forecasting world markest prices. There fundamental groups can be distinguished among method, of world market prices forecasting. Econometric methods consist in broad utilizetion of mathematical, statistical and econometric techniques in price models construction. A world price forecast can also be obtained owing to non-econometric methods. Those ones are based on knowledge of experts and its using for forecasting purposes. The usability, however, of the mixed method of forecasting. should be seen in analytic activities concerning world prices. The method in question should combine both non-econometric methods and technique and econometric ones. Utilization of a mixed methodical variant enables a more comprehensive reflection and analysis of factors influencing the prices as well as the most precise reflection of that influence. Furthermore, the influence of verification procedures on prices accepted within the CMEA is discussed as well as instruments of verifications of forecasts results are analyzed. The problem can be of some importance in case of forecasts utilization within the CMEA. In its final part the article contains considerations on problems of forecasts horizon and data modernization. It is analyzed in connection with the problem of reliability of forecasts results used within the grouping.Item CELE POLITYKI PIENIĘŻNEJ I ICH REALIZACJA W WARUNKACH ZMIENIAJĄCYCH SIĘ REGULACJI PRAWNO-INSTYTUCJONALNYCH W POLSCE W LATACH 1995 - 1997(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1998) Janc, AlfredItem Model demograficzny w zastosowaniu eksperymentalnym(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Mazur, Denis Peter; Janc, AlfredA demographic model of fertility age curve is simulated to determine the effect of successive shitfs in women's aggregate age at birth. The age limits of women's reproductive span their age structure, and the annual number of livebirths are held constant in the first experiment" The second experiment involves an assessment of variation in women's reproductive-age span, Two experimental populations are distinguished: (1) the actual population by age, and (2) the life table type. The shape of age curve of fertility has a minimal affect on the cumulative rate for the life table age structure. When based on the actual population by single years of age, the cumulative rate of total fertility tends to fluctuate with changes in the peak age of women at childbearing. An increase in the average age of women at birth under the absolute constancy of parameter values usually augments the rate of total fertility. A slight decrease in completed fertility is observed for the life table type of age structure when the upper limit of women's reproductive span is advanced early. In the final simulation, when requirement of the constancy of parameter values is much relaxed the test corresponding to an intermediate value of the average age at childbearing generates the highest level of completed fertility. The author suggests that the most desirable approach seems to be a combination of analytic properties of the model with simulation.Item O potrzebie opracowania koncepcji i metody szacowania struktury ludności bez zniekształceń i zakłóceń(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Valkovics, Emil; Janc, AlfredThe interpretation of age-pyramids representing population structures qualified as distorted may be found mostly in the form of specifying the causes of „cuts" and „protrusions" seen on them, without taking their multiplying effects exerted mostly on the number of birth into consideration. The calculation of age-pyramids or population structures referring to identical dates of observation necessitates to eliminate the effects deemed as causing distortions, occured extraordinarily during the century preceding the observation of the population on the life history of each of the birth cohorts (generations) constituting the population. After calculating (estimating) the population sùrplusses or losses regarded as extraordinary, as well as their structures, we have to elaborate the hypotheses on mortality, nuptiality, fertility and external migration of their — and of their descendants — further lives. Afterwards, on the basis of fictive numbers of the populations of the related birth cohorts for the termination of the effects causing distortions up to the date of the observation „population projections" are to be realized. The age-pyramid and population structure without distortion may be compared with the real (distorted) age-pyramid and population structure in several ways. The calculation of the structure of subpopulations without any perturbation — constituting the population — necessitates also the elimination of the effects of differences in the mortality and external migration of the subpopulations, beyond the so-called rectangular standardization of the age-specific rates of the subpopulation observed transversally. If it is not possible, we have to apply the hypotheses of independency and continuity. However, neither the elimination of the effects of differences observable in the calendar within the individual cohorts concerning the longitudinal sums of the age specific rates of subpopulations can be neglected. Beyond the transversal population structures without any distortion and perturbation, also their longitudinal versions referring to individual birth cohorts (generations) can be calculated, as they are in interrelation with the transversal versions of the former one, that may be described also in mathematical way.Item Zastosowanie analizy kosztów i korzyści do oceny inwestycji w krajach rozwijających się(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1986) Janc, AlfredThe subject of the article is the Western elaborated method of investment estimation known as cost-benefit analysis, discussed in the context of investment processes and problems of estimating investment ventures in the developing countries. Development of methodological concepts of cost and benefit analysis is presented as well as relations of investment estimation to planning the socioeconomic development. Particular attention is paid on the methods elaborated within the framework of such international organizations as OECD, UNIDO, IDCAS and the World Bank. The author focuses on two basic elements of the cost-benefit analysis, i.e. searching for a numeraire- a unit of account and settlement valuation of expenditures and results. The author discusses both various methods of arriving at settlement prices for the needs of estimation development investments and the meaning of the so-called national parameters i.e. dual valuations having the same values in analysis of all examined and evaluated undertakings in a given state in a given period. The article indicates at the wide interest paid to the concept of cost-benefit analysis recently in the developing countries. It is emphasised that a large body of literature is devoted to the theory of cost and benefit analysis as well as numerous performed and described practical applications of the formulated methods.