Przegląd Strategiczny, 2020, nr 13
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Item The Role of the Polish Military Contingent in the Reconstruction of Ghazni Province(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Sabawoon, MirzaThe article outlines the activity of the Polish army as part of NATO operations in Afghanistan. The analysis concerns humanitarian aid in particular, and identifies the most important activities of the PRT (Provincial Reconstruction Team) carried out in the field of reconstruction and security in the city of Ghazni from 2001. The PMC (Polish Military Contingent) worked for the stability of the city, starting in mid-2008. The author concludes that the objectives pursued by the PMC related to the reconstruction of the city of Ghazni increased the level of security of the local community and the overall stability in the region. The methods used in the article (comparative, research, systemic and genetic explanation method) make it possible to examine and present the processes and changes taking place.Item “Active Measures” of the USSR Against the USA: Old Soviet Games in the New Geopolitical Reality(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Dubov, Dmytro; Barovska, Anastasiia; Koretska, IrynaThe growth and dissemination of Russia’s propaganda have become a serious threat in recent years. But these efforts of Russia are not new, they have a basis in the past – known as “active measures.” Therefore, the problem of detecting and counteracting these “active measures,” first and foremost, is that there is no commonly accepted definition of the term. Therefore, the authors addressed the specific problem of the definition of “active measures.” The authors found that all “active measures” were subordinated to a single political strategic idea, and this idea was carried out by various methods. The authors are convinced that any classification of current “active measures” should be based on the methods detected. In order to identify these methods, the scheme of “active measures,” suggested by S. K. Whittle, is used. At the same time, his scheme has been supplemented, and the relevant cases for the application of different methods of “active measures” are given. An attempt is made to compare the methods of applying “active measures” with current aspects of the hybrid war of the Russian Federation, in particular in Ukraine.Item “The Terrorist Bomb is Still Ticking” – Even in the Shadow of COVID-19(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Wojciechowski, SebastianItem The ASEAN’s Attitude to the South China Sea Dispute after the Verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Pietrasiak, MałgorzataThe South China Sea is the most inflammable area in the region of Southeast Asia due to its natural resources, commercial and political importance. The ASEAN countries directly involved in the dispute have conflicting interests, mainly related to their relationship with China, a pretender for the whole area. Therefore, attemps to settle the dispute are not successful. On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a verdict taking into account the Law of the Sea, in which it accepted the Philippines’s arguments and rejected China’s claims based on historical arguments against the islands in the South China Sea. China did not take part in the trial and found its sentences non-binding but at the same time it has entered into a dialogue with ASEAN on the code of conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. The purpose of the article is to discuss how the parties are involved in the conflict, progress towards signing the Code of Conduct for the Parties in the South China Sea and the attitude of ASEAN countries to this conflict. Due to the degree of dependence of economies on Chinese influence, and relations with other powers, mainly the US, the behavior of individual countries is different. Hence the problem with the organization’s cohesion and attempts to break the deadlock, which have been unsuccessful so far. The basic research hypothesis that will be verified is to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea in the long run. At the same time, it was noted that Vietnam is prepared for long-term actions, based on diplomatic tools combined with a tough attitude, to solve problems related to the sovereignty of disputed areas. ASEAN will have to face up with the issues more consistently, by making greater use of quiet diplomacy. The theoretical basis of the article is Hurrell’s theory of neorealism, which analyzes, among other things, the principles and objectives of regional organizations in the international environment. Hurrell assumes that all regional organizations cannot be understood differently from their regional balance of power and regional dominant forces policy and ASEAN’s attitude proves this point of view.Item Use and Application of Firearms by the Police in the Light of Human Rights Standards in Poland(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Fehler, WłodzimierzThe article is devoted to the assessment of the rules, possibilities and manners of using and applying firearms by the Police in terms of compliance with human rights. The first part of the study contains analyses focusing on general frames for the use and application of firearms and circumstances giving premises for the use or application of these arms. In the next section, the discussion covers the conduct of law enforcement officials preceding the use of firearms and refers to the question of the so-called special use of firearms. The content of the final part of the article covers mechanisms preventing abuse regarding the use and application of firearms and procedures for situations of breaching legal regulations for the use of such arms. The article closes with the summary where, based on the analyses of existing solutions and available statistical data, a conclusion is made that the Police exercise proper caution so as to ensure the observance of human rights in relation to holding legislative power to use and apply firearms. The key methods applied while preparing this article were the legal analysis and the institutional analysis. In the alternative, a descriptive method with the application of the critical analysis of the literature on the subject was also employed.Item Turkey-US Relations in the Context of the Syrian Conflict: from Cooperation to Confrontation(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Akyeşilmen, Nezir; Tinker, Vanessa; Ishmeal, MohammedTurkey and the United States of America have been strategic partners for over seven decades. Nevertheless, their relationship has not always been a smooth one, and the two countries have encountered temporary bilateral crises from time to time. In spite of the challenges, over the years, the NATO allies – the United States and Turkey have continued to reaffirm their commitment to cooperate with each other as “strategic partners.” However, the ensuing Syrian crisis has brought the relationship between the allies to an all-time historic low. This study examines Turkey-US relations in the context of the ongoing Syrian conflict using a conflict analysis framework. With this framework, we analyze the historical background, identify the root causes of the crisis and conduct an actor analysis. Based on our findings, we provide policy recommendations to de-escalate and transform the current crisis in US-Turkey relations in order to both restore their mutual trust and find new ways to cooperate as strategic partners.Item The British-Irish Border in the Context of Brexit(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Balawajder, GrzegorzThe subject of the paper is reflections on the consequences of Brexit for the functioning of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The author explains what this border means when the United Kingdom is no longer a member of the European Union, and thus the border may be a barrier to the free movement of people, goods, capital and services. At the same time, it is stressed that the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have a significant impact on the change of the function of this border, which from then on is no longer an internal border of the Union. The aim of the paper is therefore to analyse the consequences of this change, with a simultaneous indication of different models of the UK’s functioning with relation to the European Union and their impact on the British-Irish relations, especially with regard to the various dimensions of the border as a barrier. The article presents various scenarios of solutions that will determine their mutual relations as a result of negotiations between the European Union and Great Britain, especially with regard to access to the single European market, which in turn will be influenced by the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland in the scope of the free movement of people, goods, capital and services. The author used the system analysis method and the comparative method. The author puts forward the thesis that if the negotiations cause a fairly strong loosening of relations between the UK and the European Union, to mitigate the consequences of such a situation for the Irish-British relations, it will be necessary to find and develop bilateral solutions that will facilitate border crossing. The Smart Border 2.0 concept can constitute such a solution.Item Political Regime Type and Regional Cooperation – a Case Study of Arab States(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Grabowski, WojciechThe purpose of the article is to show how the type of political system (authoritarian regime) influences the shape of regionalism in the Middle East and to what extent this political system determines the features of cooperation between Arab states. To this end, a hypothesis was put forward according to which the authoritarian political system is a key obstacle to the successful integration and unification of the Middle East. Middle Eastern regionalism serves to protect and legitimize the political power of authoritarian leaders, whereas in Europe it guides to peace, stabilization and development. Authoritarian regionalism tends to reduce democratic ambitions and maintain the authoritarian status quo. In order to verify the hypothesis, the following research questions were posed. First, how is the type of political system related to successful integration? Second, can autocracies work effectively together? To verify the hypothesis and answer the research questions, the author referred to the theories of realism, constructivism, neo-functionalism and the typology of political systems to show that there is no single theory that could fully explain the processes in international relations. The conclusion of this article is that regional organizations created by authoritarian states are only symbolic and instrumental in nature and are oriented towards internal policy (the survival of the regime) rather than regional cooperation.Item Sanctions, Accommodation, and Defiance. A Long Track of US Sanctions Targeted at Iran. Radosław Fiedler’s Interview with Richard Nephe(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Fiedler, RadosławInterviewItem The Formation of the International Imperatives of the National (Food) Security Coefficient in Ukraine under Globalization(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Khalatur, Svitlana; Zhylenko, Kateryna; Vinichenko, Ihor; Trokhymets, Olena; Kriuchko, LesiaThe purpose of the study is to review the academic literature on food security issues in order to examine the indicators of rational and minimal nutrition, facilitating the analysis of the existing system of indicators by which to assess the state of the food security system in a country. The aim of the article is to investigate and demonstrate the imperatives behind the formation of Ukraine’s national (food) security in the context of globalization. National food security in the broad sense should be considered as the state of the economy, and more narrowly – as the guaranteed ability of a state to meet the needs of the population by providing each citizen with the required volume, range and quality of food at a level that ensures the health and intellectual development of the individual, based on the principles of self-sufficiency of basic products and their economic and physical accessibility, regardless of the influence of external and internal factors. The Global Food Security Index Ranks of the European Union and Ukraine are analyzed. Consumer expenditure on food consumed at home in Ukraine is analyzed in the article. Average food security indicators of the EU and Ukraine are analyzed for 2001–2018, in particular for food exports, food imports, food production index, food, beverages and tobacco. The dynamics and forecasts of wheat and maize harvest and crop production in Ukraine and the EU are compared. The analysis of the Suite of Food Security Indicators of the EU and Ukraine is presented alongside a comprehensive analysis of the multifactor regression model of Food Production Index from foreign direct investment, net inflows, GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, short-term debt, tax revenue, total natural resources rents, and trade. The analysis has shown that for the analysis of the food production index it is effective to build a regression model, because it allows not only to estimate the degree of influence of the factor on the result, but also to most effectively predict the size of the food production index for the future.Item Institutional Mechanism to Ensure National Security in the Information Space of the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Bondarenko, Sergii; Nagornyak, Tetyana; Polovyi, MykolaThe paper is devoted to an analysis of the institutional mechanisms that ensure national security in the information space of several leading countries – the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation. It is stated that institutional mechanisms that ensure national security in the information space of the leading countries all have a similar structure. The main components of these mechanisms involve public authorities (state leaders – president or prime minister, government, ministries, and agencies), local government bodies, civil society institutions, the academic community, business community, and the media. The gradual expansion of the system of institutions that ensure national security in the information space and increase in their powers occurs in all these states. The analysis also demonstrates the paradigm shifts in the development and implementation of US and UK information policy in the context of modern nonlinear processes. Paradigmatic shifts are currently being reoriented towards the interests and needs of target audiences, diversification of channels and mechanisms of the distribution of meaning (strategic narratives) in the information space, from vertical to horizontal interaction with internal and external audiences. Emphases are shifting to the involvement of a wide range of institutions and other stakeholders in the implementation of information policy and delegation of powers from the center to the periphery, while preserving the main parameters of the policy established by state structures.Item Boko Haram – the Evolution of Jihad Activity in Nigeria 2015–2019(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Wejkszner, ArturThis article analyzes the rise and evolution of Boko Haram, a Nigerian jihadist organization operating since March 2015 under the banner of Islamic State. The key changes in the ideology, tactics, and goals of Boko Haram have been identified providing in-depth insight into how and why the organization has evolved. The evolution of jihadist activity of Boko Haram included at least two dimensions: firstly – the extreme radicalization of paramilitary struggle manifested in the massacres of civilians in rural areas; and secondly – the feminization of jihadist activity with special regard to the involuntary participation of young women in suicide bombings. The analysis of the facts discussed in the article is based on one of the qualitative scientific methods, namely case study. The main reason to apply this method is the need to investigate the above-mentioned changes in the activity of Islamic terrorists within the time limits indicated in the title of the article.Item Born in the Ashes: Nuclear Uncertainties ‘Increasing’ Strategic Stability(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Sinovets, Polina; Melnyk, TetianaThe article explores the challenges that strategic stability is facing under the new nuclear world order. These are conceptual deviations from Cold War-framed deterrence theory, technological breakthroughs and critical transformations of states’ nuclear postures. Contrary to the existing publications on this issue, we claim that strategic stability will continue under the new nuclear order and might even be strengthened by the complex combination of security challenges, given the growing impossibility to de-escalate war once it breaks out.Item Baltic-Black Sea Region as a Resilient Region: Political and Security Aspects(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Gladysh, Marianna; Krayevska, Oksana; Holovko-Havrysheva, OksanaThe conceptual bases of resilience in modern political science are analyzed, including the key conceptual approaches that are used in academic studies for understanding the policy of resilience, characterizing the reaction of subjects to stress or threat of any kind and origin. The concept of resilience is applied to analyze the cooperation among the Baltic-Black Sea countries as a regional interaction model which should be formed in order to reduce or avoid security crises. The Baltic-Black Sea countries have developed and formed strong ties in different dimen¬sions among one another, opening an opportunity for intellectual adventures in the area of the conceptualization of their interaction modes under the regional cooperation frameworks. Based upon the analyzed doctrinal views and available documentary backgrounds on resilience in the UN and the EU, the possible visions and scenarios for the creation of the Baltic-Black Sea region as a resilient one are given. The existing and potential obstacles to cooperation in the region are highlighted. The main threats and challenges for the Baltic-Black Sea region at present are investigated.Item Iran, Terrorism, and ISIS. Radosław Fiedler’s Interview with Bruce Hoffman(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Fiedler, RadosławInterviewItem Political Identity as a Security Factor of Ukrainian Statehood(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Prymush, Mykola; Lavrynenko, HannaIn the article, the authors analyze the formation of the political identity of citizens of Ukraine as a security factor of Ukrainian statehood. It is noted that, in addition to political identity, there are many other identities, that are presented in the form of a matrix, the components of which continuously interact with, complement and influence each other. In terms of methodology, the process of forming political identity is considered from the standpoint of symbolic interactionism, where the emphasis is placed on political interaction. In addition, in order to objectively assess the effectiveness of the formation of political identity and potential negative consequences in the form of a crisis of statehood, the mechanism for transforming a situational identity into a basic political identity is considered from the standpoint of post-structuralism. The study identifies and formulates criteria for constructing this basic type of political identity, the prerequisites for their formation and correlation with the actual political situation in Ukraine. The multitude of approaches to the study of the formation of political identity is complemented by the consideration of various models of its construction. Fragmental, elite and organic models are considered. Particular attention is paid to the leading role of the state in the process of forming political identity, where the key participants are political elites, the media and civil society. To determine how the perception of the degree of influence of each participant affects the process of political identity formation by the population of Ukraine at different periods of time, with its intermittent outbursts of social activity, the method of factor analysis is used. On the basis of the results of the analysis of the constructed triangular diagrams, two patterns are extracted. According to one, an increase in positive perception and integration into the process of socialization of models of the political identity formation proposed by the political elite is observed in society after each surge in mass protests that leads to a regime change. The other pattern is manifested in the revealed tendentiousness of the influence of the media and political elites on the security level of Ukrainian statehood and the growth of tension in society.Item EU-Africa Relations: Towards a New Comprehensive Strategy With Africa. Between a Rock and a Hard Place(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Forysiński, Wojciech; Emmanuel, AchiriThe European Union has a long history of relations with Africa and Africa has always been a strategic partner for the European Union. Today, however, the European Union’s relations with Africa are at a crossroads and the partnership needs to undergo a profound and rapid change. In order to properly investigate this research problem and to address its research questions concerning the future of the EU-Africa partnership, it is demonstrated that the time has come for change and redefinition of the partnership. Therefore, the overall aim of the article is to provide an insight into the EU’s new partnership with Africa, to explore its complex, fragmented nature and scope, actors, legal bases, constitutive elements and different ways both sides are going to present the new agreement to their respective constituencies. The way this research is pursued combines a number of methods. It involves textual analysis of primary sources – the instruments regulating the EU’s relations with Africa, secondary sources, documentary analysis as well as comparative, contextual and historical analysis. The complexities facing the EU and its African partners encourage curiosity and reflection about the new partnership. The article strongly emphasizes that the EU-Africa partnership does not stand still. It is a process of ever closer partnership. It has evolved from a relatively limited scale into a comprehensive system of normative instruments and institutions. And it has bifurcated into EU-ACP and EU-AU partnerships and today both partnerships are being re-negotiated. The likelihood of the negotiations being completed successfully, optimistically, by the end of 2020, remains open. It is our overall conclusion and prediction that the EU-Africa partnership will be enhanced and move a step closer to an integrated, comprehensive partnership, an effective framework for EU-AU relations.Item Decentralization vs Centralization: Scenarios of Regional Development of Ukraine in the Context of Internal Stability Establishment(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Uzun, Yuliia; Koch, SvetlanaThe work aims to analyze scenarios for the development of regional policy in Ukraine in conditions of decentralization and centralization trends confrontation in the country. The main problem is the establishment of structural completeness of the decentralization reform in Ukraine, which should involve the implementation of administrative-territorial, budgetary and political decentralization. An important task is also to determine the effectiveness of devolution, delegation, deconcentration, deregulation, and divestment, which are manifestations of the decentralization process and collectively determine the quality of reform. Based on the methodology of system analysis and the concept of “balance of relations,” as well as using a historical and comparative method in investigating the improvement of approaches to leading public policy, and a structural-functional method for analysis of territorial-political system as a decentralized and multi-level, the paper proposes an analysis of the balance of inter-level relations in the country, the effectiveness of reforms, decentralization and trends for further development. The work indicates that since 2014, administrative and territorial optimization and enlargement of communities have become the main result of the decentralization reform. The discussion of political decentralization remains extremely disturbing and is blocked as “separatism,” as well as attempts to resolve the conflict in the Donbas by political means through the adoption of the Steinmeier Formula are demurred as “capitulation.” The economic crisis, which coincided with the pandemic, can aggravate the negative perception of reform, the development of which remains possible within the framework of three development scenarios: “Euro-optimistic,” “inertial” and “blocking.”Item Feminization of the Police from the Perspective of Comprehensive Risk Minimization(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Magiera, MaciejNowadays, the Police have a significant impact on the security and public order in Poland having actually become a litmus test of how the authorities approach the general public. Furthermore, Polish society is developing the characteristics of risk society and information society, which stimulates a special interest of citizens and the mass media in all the activities of uniformed institutions. Their attitude to current political events is often assessed and their effectiveness criticized. Therefore, the impact of contemporary modernization processes on the Police, including feminization, is a worthwhile task. For this purpose, extremely useful have been research methods, such as case studies, comparative analysis and system analysis.Item The Role of Germany in the Transnistria Conflict(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Koszel, BogdanThe author indicates in the article that the conflict over Transnistria was not int the field of German close interests. The main task of the German government was to maintain good relations with Russia and to grant it the role of the main mediator in the dispute between Moldova and rebellious Transnistria. On the other hand, Germany, as an EU member, sought to stabilize the region and to bring about democratic and pro-European changes in Moldova. Berlin supported negotiations between the conflicted parties within the OSCE framework albeit aware that they were a sham and would not contribute to the resolution of the conflict. Both the people of Transnistria and Moldova are committed to maintaining the status quo. The absence of physical violence and minor economic and legal tensions have encouraged Western Europe to remain indifferent to Transnistria’s problems. In the article the author used the following research methods: historical, descriptive, source analysis and decision making method.