Przegląd Strategiczny, 2018, nr 11

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    GREENLAND - FROM AUTONOMY TO (IN)DEPENDENCE
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Brańka, Tomasz
    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the process of development of Greenland’s autonomy, especially vis-à-vis the Act on Greenland Self-Government of 2009, which ensures that decisions on the future status of the island will be made by the people of Greenland. Compared to other entities, Greenland is the only Arctic territory which can feasibly gain independence. This study also discusses the relations between Denmark and Greenland in terms of post-colonial relations between the former metropolis/colonizer and the island, outlining also the discourse on independence in Greenland. The hypothesis posed in the paper is that the proceeds from mineral extraction will not enable Greenland to become economically independent and abandon Danish subsidies, and that the process of gaining sovereignty might result in Greenland becoming dependent on external powers which will have a considerable impact on social relations on the island. This means that the matter under negotiation is not so much whether or not Greenland has the right to declare independence, but rather if it should take this step.
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    Iran’s Engagement in Syrian Conflic t. Causes and Consequences
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Ożarowski, Rafał
    Since the 2011, Iran is deeply engaged in Syrian war in order to support and keep President Bashar al-Assad in power. Firstly, Iran started with political and diplomatic support and later turned into military and economic assistance. At the moment, it is believed that Syria is financially sustained by Iran. The main reason that Iran has determined for wide-scale engagement was the existential need for maintaining and then expanding its own regional power influences in the Middle East. If Syrian regime collapsed, Iran would be dealt with a big dilemma and it would loss Syria as a key military and political ally. Thus, Iran would have cut off his transit route to supply weapons to Lebanon for Hezbollah, as these transports still go across Syrian territory. It would surely diminish the Iranian position in the Middle East. Preventing such a case, Iran has been determined to engage in the Syrian conflict to a great extent, which, as a consequence, is charged with heavy costs. Although there is no exact data of Iran’s expenses for the Syrian War, it is supposed that this is in the range of 6 billion USD to 35 billion USD. At the moment, it can be said that engagement in Syrian war was beneficial for Iran, mainly in political sphere, yet the full consequences of this involvement will only be known in many months.
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    Badanie polityki zagranicznej państwa, Edward Haliżak (ed.), Rambler, Warszawa 2018, 590 pp, ISBN: 978-83-62751-64-8.
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Osiewicz, Przemysław
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    THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI): IMPLICATIONS FOR IRAN-CHINA RELATIONS
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Osiewicz, Przemysław
    The article focuses on the Belt and Road Initiative, which was introduced by the leadership of the People’s Republic of China in 2013, and its political as well as economic implications for Iran-China relations. The ongoing implementation of the Chinese initiative raises a few research questions. Would both sides benefit from the cooperation in the BRI framework or would one of them maybe have the upper hand? What are the main opportunities and challenges in the case of China-Iran relations and BRI implementation? The analysis is conducted in the framework of the grand strategy theory. This study is based on primary sources such as official governmental documents, speeches of influential politicians, and official statistical data. Besides these sources, information from secondary sources like monographs and academic articles was taken into consideration.
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    The Role of Non-Profit Organizations in Ensuring Social Security on a Local Scale
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Bodziacki, Ryszard
    The democratic transformation in Poland, the beginning of which dates back to the 1980s, brought political and economic freedom that additionally inspired the activity of civil movements taking the form of non-governmental organizations. Since the early 1990s, Polish society has become clearly divided, which was illustrated by the emergence of three distinct areas of public activity. The Law of March 8, 1990 on Territorial Self-Government began the rapid development of local governments, which were given the task of handling local public matters. The Law on Business Operations, which was in force at the time, ensured freedom of operations and the principle of quality of all participants of business life. Other laws, the Law on Foundations of April 6, 1984 and the Law on Associations of April 7, 1989 restored the possibility of civil self-organization, working for one’s own circle and fulfilling social needs. Throughout the whole period of political transformation, and in particular in the decade after Poland’s accession to the European Union, NGOs have become one of the most active actors of public life, and a capable partner to local and regional authorities in designing policies. One significant element of politics involves ensuring the security of citizens. Social security is of particular importance. NGOs initiate a number of projects aiming to fulfill the basic needs of residents, thereby ensuring their personal development and confidence. Cooperation with territorial self-government is of exceptional importance here.
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    Is this the Collapse of Islamic State? The Evolution of the Terrorist Threat in the Mi ddle East in 2017
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Wejkszner, Artur
    The main aim of this article is to present an evolution of the terrorism threat in the Middle East in 2016. For this purpose, firstly, the essence and determinants of the contemporary terrorism threat have been analyzed. Some main Middle East terrorist organizations, actively operating in this area, have also been indicated. Secondly, the chronology and the most important terror¬ism trends in the region have been presented. A special attention has been paid to consequences of the fall of the Islamic State. And last but not least some predictive scenarios regarding the development of above phenomenon in 2017 and beyond have been pointed out.
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    Internal Factors and its Impact on Iranian Foreign Policy
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Fiedler, Radosław
    The Islamic Republic of Iran has a political structure with co-shared and competitive activity in the field of foreign policy. There are two power centres the president and the supreme leader. Iranian political elite is composed of factions of the conservatives, moderates, pragmatists, and reformers. Each faction has influence on the course of Iranian foreign policy. The dominant faction, conservatives, has caused isolation and imposition of severe sanctions on Iran during Ahmadinejad’s presidency Although domestic sources of foreign policy reveals competition among different factions there is consensus in principal goals of Iranian foreign policy.
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    National Media as a Projection of a Devastating Effect of External Influences
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Danylenko, Serhiy; Nesteriak, Yuliia; Grynchuk, Maryna
    This article is devoted to the research of media space of several countries in the Western Balkans and the Baltics, where we can observe the emergence and effective use of dubious media, in order to promote aggressive narratives, identified as a destructive influence of the Russian Federation. It is considered as the threat to the national security of these states. The informa-tion tools of a destabilizing nature include diplomatic, intelligence, and energy tools. The me-dia component of information influence has become the central object of research. It is stated that the destructive use of dubious national media, as well as their replenishment, takes place systematically and efficiently in those areas, where Russia’s state interests are focused on the restoration of its domination. On this basis we can conclude that dubious media is used within Russia’s hybrid aggression in relation to Ukraine, where it is seen as a mean of animating the externally initiated destabilizing political influences. However, Russia will be forced to spend more and more resources (financial, organizational and informational) on such operations, and their effectiveness will fall as local governments, society and citizens will learn how to recognize the threats, retransmitted by dubious media, public associations, populist politicians or radicals.
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    The Inclusion Processes in the Extent of Welfare Security
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Jagusiak, Bogusław
    The article presents and analyzes selected basic problems coinciding with the issues of the inclusion and integration of population into the domain of social security, and it answers the research question: what is the proper, complete and exact meaning of the notions of security, social security, and social welfare? Critical semantical analysis of many works and statements, from classical to modern to newest ones, is the principal research method. According to the central conclusion, the most proper definition of social security identifies it with care, protec-tion and control and not mainly with the absence of threats. The author underscores that leading publications identify social security with protecting the existential foundations of human lives and assuring the fulfillment of individual needs (material and spiritual) and aspirations through the creation of conditions facilitating work and education, and through healthcare and pension guarantees. Part One of the article focuses on the etymology of the definition of security, and on the conventional understanding of security. Part Two is devoted to the natural definition of security, especially social security. Part Three provides information on the topic of social security, considered from the angle of protection and control of people’s living standards.
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    Терроризм и революция
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Гуторов (Gutorov), Владимир (Vladimir); Ширинянц (Shirinyants), Александр (Aleksandr)
    Статья посвящена актуальным проблемам теоретического анализа революционного тер- роризма эпохи модерна. Характеризуются специфические особенности революционного терроризма в плане сравнения исторического опыта Великой французской и Октябрьской революций. Критически оцениваются результаты интерпретации этого опыта в общесо- циологических теориях М. Манна, Б. Мура и И. Валлерстайна, а также в политической философии неомарксизма (М. Хардт, А. Негри, Р. М. Унгер, Т. Иглтон, Ф. Джеймисон). В статье отмечается, что большинство объяснительных макросоциологических моделей ограничиваются лишь «подведением итогов» террористической политики партий и госу- дарств в XVIII–XX вв. Различные аспекты дискуссии вокруг самого феномена террориз- ма и роли государства в его сдерживании или, наоборот, распространении затрагиваются в них лишь косвенно, поскольку террор как таковой нивелирован до уровня сегмента (более или менее существенного) макропроцессов и структур, определяющих эволюцию к индустриальному и постиндустриальному типу общества. При этом историческая ли- ния преемственности между различными этапами эволюции самой политической тра- диции террора трактуется в макромоделях весьма абстрактно и нередко становится едва различимой. Аналитические идеи философии современного левого радикализма также свидетельствуют о том, что неомарксистские идеологи в своем анализе современного терроризма, в определенном плане, остаются столь же приверженными абстрактным фи- лософским конструкциям, как и ученые, ориентирующиеся на макро-теоретические па- радигмы современной социологии и академического марксизма со всеми свойственными им несомненными преимуществами и неизбежными аберрациями.
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    A Strategic Review of the Security of European Countries
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Magiera, Maciej; Donaj, Łukasz
    This paper combines a review of the strategic security of European countries in 2017, and the creation - on the basis of the international scenario method - of short-, medium- and longterm forecasts. The authors address both the nature of armed conflicts (including the so-called ‘frozen conflicts’) and the escalation of terrorist acts. Also, the issue of the immigration crisis has been highlighted as causing both the rise of radical public sentiments and being a ‘source’ of the smuggling of people (including terrorists) and goods (including weapons which are later used in attacks).
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    Europe Within the World of Regionalisms
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Bach, Daniel C.
    The surge of diversified forms of regionalism and regional integration within the past few decades has stimulated the reappraisal of the conceptual tools traditionally designed to benchmark and monitor region-building processes across the world. More recently, the Brexit negotiations have become a reminder that the EU remains an unfolding experience. This article argues that the study of African regionalisms constitutes a timely invitation to revisit the experience of the EU and its contribution to the world of regionalisms. After a brief survey of the classic definition of the region, we will discuss the ongoing relevance of European integration and the implications of the analytical distinction between regionalism, regionalisation and regional integration, before drawing from the study of Africa five threads which set the basis for a comparative study of regions and regionalisms beyond the classic emphasis on the EU or the world of regions.
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    DESTABILIZATION OF THE INTERNAL SITUATION AS ONE OF THE MAIN THREATS TO THE SECURITY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Kusa, Natalia
    For the first time internal security has been clearly articulated in Russian National Security Strategy of December 2015. That is when the so-called colour revolutions and “radical social groups which use nationalist and extremist religious ideologies, foreign and international nongovernmental organisations, as well as private citizens who act against the Russian territorial integrity and destabilise political processes” have been deemed the most significant challenges to the Russian security, together with the North Atlantic Alliance and the United States of America. As a response to such defined threats, Russian legislation introduced solutions that attempt to prevent the danger. The aim of this article is to answer the question, whether Russian authori¬ties treat the destabilisation of internal situation as one of the main challenges to the Russian security, and if yes, what are the indications of that? Does Russian legislation (especially from the last few years), actions of the Russian authorities and Russian subject literature, include evidence confirming this hypothesis?
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    THE IMPORTANCE OF THE EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY’S ACTIVITIES FOR THE SECURITY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Bryła, Jolanta
    The aim of this article is to show that the activities of the European Space Agency contribute significantly to the security of the European Union. What was required to develop space potential and to start using it for security purposes was the political and programmatic evolution of both organizations. The original objectives for which the European Space Agency was established were not related to security. Before the ESA became an organization with important implications for the security of the EU, it was an intergovernmental organization exclusively dedicated to the ex¬ploration and exploitation of space for peaceful purposes. The paper assumes that in order for this evolution to be possible, both the ESA and the EU had to find and/or develop common platforms and forms of possible cooperation. The paper identifies the most important reasons for and stages of this evolution, as expressed in program documentation. As this process is not yet complete, the remaining obstacles to the optimal use of the potential of both organizations to strengthen the security of the European Union are identified. The paper was created on the basis of the descriptive method, analysis of the content of documents and synthesis.
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    Current Challenges for the Application of the Rule of Law in European States, Poznań, 12–13 April, 2018
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Bainczyk, Magdalena
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    Polish Strategic Analyses – Review of 2017 Publications
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Wiśniewski, Rafał
    The text is a review of selected articles from leading Polish academic journals dealing with the topic of international security. It aims to present the most important topics of current debate taking place in Polish strategic studies.
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    PRETEXTS AS THE MOTIVES FOR TRIGGERING ARMED CONFLICTS AND STATES PARTICIPATION
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Malendowski, Włodzimierz
    The causes of armed conflicts are a subject of constant interest to the social sciences. This has resulted in many theories and findings regarding the selection of different criteria in determining conflict-triggering factors. In international practice, states decide to declare war citing reasons connected with the state or vital national interests. Sometimes, the true motivations for the use of force are hidden. The history of armed conflicts includes many cases of using contrived pretexts or outright lies to start a war. External circumstances which were beyond the control of the state starting the war and which did not depend on the state’s will and actions have been used as pretexts. Some of the pretexts, however, were deliberately fabricated to justify and explain military operations. States taking advantage of pretexts to use force can be observed from the time of the Trojan War to the attack on Iraq in 2003. Among the countries using pretexts to start a war, the superpowers occupy the leading position – they claim higher purposes, despite the fact that there are no objective criteria upon which to establish their superiority over the conventions of morality and international law.
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    ПОСТСОВЕТСКОЕ СОДРУЖЕСТВО (СНГ). ОСТАЛИСЬ ЛИ РЕСУРСЫ ДЛЯ НОВОЙ РЕИНТЕГРАЦИИ?
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Медведев (Medvedev), Николай (Nikolay); Нестерчук (Nesterchuk), Ольга (Olga); Слизовский (Slisovskiy), Дмитрий (Dmitry)
    В предлагаемой статье авторы задались целью рассмотреть вопрос: остались ли у Содру- жества Независимых Государств (СНГ) ресурсы для новой реинтеграции. Вопрос этот поставлен уже давно лидерами и политическими элитами стран-членов СНГ, историей становления и развития Содружества, специалистами и экспертами, внутренними и вне- шними условиями и обстоятельствами, связанными в самых невероятных комбинациях с прошлым, настоящим и будущим СНГ. Решали задачу по классификации и анализу име- ющейся в открытом доступе информации: документов, событий и фактов, представлений и воззрений лидеров и элит, экспертов и специалистов. Такая широкая задача имеет су- щественное ограничение – только политологический взгляд на события, факты, оценки и суждения. Результаты исследования выражены в следующих терминах: а) настоящее и будущее СНГ находится в тисках противоречия между благоприятными для эффек- тивного развития стран природно-материальными и человеческими ресурсами, с одной стороны, и устойчивыми пороками и слабостями политического правления и управления – с другой; между естественными интересами и желаниями народов стран-содружест- ва развивать интеграцию с пользой для общего блага и по своему рациональными олигархически-элитными запросами и эгоистичной политикой, объективно ведущих лишь к извлечению прибыли любыми способами; б) к настоящему времени СНГ, несмотря на ободряющие заявления со стороны лидеров и части политической элиты, стоит на поро- ге системного кризиса как следствия некритической и запоздалой реакции на причины кризиса и неадекватных внутренним и внешним вызовам реакций и руководства России, и лидеров и элит ряда стран-членов СНГ; в) построение обновленной и эффективной сис- темы отношений в рамках СНГ во многом будет зависеть от уровня и качества изменений в политико-экономическом сегменте Российской Федерации и других стран Содружества; г) признаки имперско-силовой модели поведения России на постсоветском пространстве, усиливая конфликтогенность политических процессов в рамках Содружества, показы- вают возможности как разрушения СНГ, так и актуальность замены имперски-силовой политики на имперско-духовную и просвещенную; СНГ еще актуально-политическое понятие, постепенно обретающее значение и смыслы сугубо исторического понятия, ко- торое в своей трансформации остается ресурсом и потенциальным основанием рождения новой организации – Большой Евразии с включением в него всех государств Содружес- тва и региона.
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    Challenges and Opportunities for the EU Digital Single Market, Brussels, 23 April, 2018
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Morozowski, Tomasz
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    Brics and New Multilateral Development Banks: Towards Recalibration of Global Economic Governance
    (Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Rewizorski, Marek
    This article addresses selected issues enmeshed into global economic governance debate. It focus¬es on a role of international institutions in transforming world order, in particular the rise of emerging powers increasingly categorised or acronymised as BRICS, their resources, power and vested interests. The main narrative brings close the phenomenon of the new reshuffling in multilateral development banking (MDB). The New Development Bank (NDB), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as ‘products’ of the third wave of MDB emergence, fit well into the proc¬ess coined as ‘the recalibration of the world economy.’ It is expressed by shift of the centre of glo¬bal economic gravity towards non-western actors and can be explained by arguments derived from game theory. They elucidate exit - voice nexus, where the cost of exit for both organisation leaders (Western donors) and members (EMDCs, BRICS) is fragmented multilateralism and where the cost of voice is decreasing capacity to influence principles and procedures of multilateral develop¬ment lending. The article in the first section starts with overview of three waves of multilateral development banking, where the most recent of them is partially explained using game theory argument. Second section starts from accentuating common characteristics of NDB and AIIB and then examines the differences between NDB and AIIB - entities which emerged during the third wave. The final section provides summaries and conclusions.