Quaestiones Geographicae
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Czasopismo Quaestiones Geographicae jest wydawane od 1974 roku. Jego założycielem i pierwszym redaktorem był profesor Stefan Kozarski. Czasopismo obejmuje zagadnienia zarówno z geografii fizycznej jak i społeczno-ekonomicznej.
Quaestiones Geographicae publikuje wyniki badań z następujących dziedzin:
- geografia fizyczna,
- geografia społeczno-ekonomiczna,
- planowanie i gospodarka przestrzenna,
- zrównoważony rozwój,
- ochrona środowiska,
- GIS i geoinformacja,
- turystyka i rekreacja.
Głównym zadaniem Quaestiones Geographicae jest wspieranie naukowców w promowaniu ich osiągnięć w światowej społeczności naukowej. Czasopismo ma na celu ułatwienie wymiany poglądów między naukowcami z różnych krajów. Quaestiones Geographicae jest wydawane w języku angielskim. Jest publikowane kwartalnie i drukowane przez Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe oraz w wersji elektronicznej na platformie Versita. Wydawcą jest Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu.
Quaestiones Geographicae was established in 1974 as an annual journal of the Institute of Geography, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland. Its founder and first editor was Professor Stefan Kozarski. Initially the scope of the journal covered issues in both physical and socio-economic geography; since 1982, exclusively physical geography. In 2010 there appeared the idea of a return to the original conception of the journal, although in a somewhat modified organisational form.
Quaestiones Geographicae publishes research results of wide interest in the following fields:
- physical geography,
- economic and human geography,
- spatial management and planning,
- sustainable development (including regional and local development),
- environmental science,
- GIS and geoinformation, and
- tourism and recreation.
The primary mission of Quaestiones Geographicae is to assist researchers in promoting their achievements in the worldwide scientific community. The journal is designed to facilitate an exchange of ideas between researchers from different countries. Preferably, the contributions submitted should be ones with a deep theoretical and methodological background in geosciences, overviews, and comparative studies of interest to an international readership and of theoretical or practical significance. Quaestiones Geographicae is peer-reviewed and its language is English. It is published quarterly in print version by Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe and in an electronic version on Versita platform. The publisher is the Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences of Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań.
Redaktor naczelny: prof. zw. dr hab. Andrzej Kostrzewski
Kontakt:Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza
Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych
Ul. Dzięgielowa 27
61-680 Poznań
strona www: http://geoinfo.amu.edu.pl/qg
Nazwa wydawcy: Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych
Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza
ISSN 0137-477X
ISBN 978-83-62662-62-3
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Item 18th century Vistula river geography in view of Franciszek Florian Czaki’s maps(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Strzelecki, KrzysztofOld maps are proven to be very useful when it comes to solution of the modern research problems and are widely used in various science disciplines connected with specification of mutual relations between elements of the geographical environment. This fact stems from the increased consciousness of unique information recorded on old maps, which at their time constituted a basis for subsequent cartographical studies. The geographical characteristics of the Vistula river were depicted in a handwritten 12-sheet map made the first half of the 18th century by Franciszek Florian Czaki, a military cartographer. On the basis of his own terrain mapping, Franciszek Florian Czaki succeeded in creation of his work, which was intended to provide an example for the designed, detailed map of Poland, ordered by Józef Aleksander Jabłonowski, the Nowogród voivode, and later by the king Stanisław August Poniatowski. The map was fully based on terrain mapping, which included such details as: settlement, road and water networks, forests, land relief as well as main types of ownership: crown-, church-, and nobility-owned.Item A geomorphological approach to geodiversity – its a pplications to geoconservation and geotourism(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych UAM, 2012) Thomas, Michael F.Geodiversity is becoming widely considered alongside biodiversity by conservation agencies and has importance for geotourism. Geomorphology has a central role in understanding geodiversity, particularly at regional and local scales. By focusing on the processes that interact at the earth’s surface and how they respond to external forcing, geomorphology analyses both landscape evolution and real-time changes over different timescales. Diversity reflects the complexity of process systems and history. Connectivity and sensitivity amongst landscape elements are highly varied over space and time, leading to divergence and increasing diversity over time. By using these principles within constrained chronologies of landscape change, studies of geodiversity can become a valuable tool in ecosystem management and the delivery of ecosystem services, including sustainable geotourism.Item A spatial and temporal analysis of land use changes in two mountain valleys: with and without dam reservoir (Polish Carpathians)(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2017) Wiejaczka, Łukasz; Olędzki, Jan Romuald; Bucała-Hrabia, Anna; Kijowska-Strugała, MałgorzataThis study analyzed the temporal and spatial changes in land use taking place in two adjacent river valleys, located within the Polish Carpathians. The land use in 1977 and 2009 was presented for selected areas. In one of the valleys, a dam has been operating since 1994 along with a retention reservoir, which is an additional factor influencing the direction and scale of the land use changes. An analysis using GIS techniques showed that the general directions of transformation in both valleys in the land use structure are similar but with different intensity. In studied valleys a decrease of area with agricultural land and gradual increase in the forested area have been observed. In the valley with the reservoir few more changes were noticed. The decrease of the forested area by 5.5% and farmland by 8.2% on the areas submerged by reservoir was observed. The strip fields pattern has been changed into more dispersed. The road network development was also observed, as well as the change of nature of residential/agricultural buildings into residential/recreational.Item Accuracy of the soil sealing enhancement product for Poland(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2016) Krówczyńska, Małgorzata; Soszyńska, Agnieszka; Pabjanek, Piotr; Wilk, Ewa; Hurbanek, Pavol; Rosina, KonstantinIncreasing urbanization results in constant enlarging of the artificial area closed to water infiltration. In 2006–2008, the Soil Sealing Enhancement (SSE) database was the part of the GMES Fast Track Service on Land Monitoring. The accuracy of the final product set by the authors should reach at least 85%. Orthorectified high resolution aerial photos of Poland were used to develop reference data constituting 20,000 random samples around the country. In each sample, the points were classified into three possible surface classes: natural, artificial and semi-sealed. Comparison of reference data to original project statistics revealed the values of accuracy, commission and omission errors in the SSE dataset. Although, SSE accuracy in Poland fulfils the criteria set by SSE authors with overall accuracy of 99.5%, the individual analysis for each category reveals many weaknesses. Preliminary interpretation of mistakes leads to the conclusion that the spatial resolution of pictures used in the SSE project is insufficient. In several cases, validation proved that omission errors were made in relation to construction sites or recently constructed buildings. It should be stated that the accuracy of SSE product for Poland should be treated as the maximum value of impervious surfaces.Item Achieving thermal comfort and sustainable urban development in accordance with the principles of bioclimatic architecture: A case study of Ulcinj (Montenegro)(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2017-12) Bajçinovci, BujarHuman communities have always taken actions to create a healthier environment for living and working. Those efforts are best documented in the architectural structure everywhere, starting from ancient history to the present. It is assumed that the town of Ulcinj is one of the earliest cities on the Adriatic coast. The building morphology and urban structure of Ulcinj is 2,500 years old and is continued by multi-ethnical society. Hence, the urban structure of Ulcinj developed harmonically across the rock hills which encompass the city beach, forming the urban structure which is perceived as the unity of land and sea. The study investigates the Ulcinj urban structure, urban management, sustainable development, focusing on human comfort, and environmental actions with a view to accomplish better and more natural life. Bioclimatic passive design principles are associated with an environmental sustainable design, interrelated to the microclimate of the region, connected to the thermal, spatial, visual, acoustic, and air quality. The research method consists of empirical observation through the city and riviera. According to the conceptual findings of this paper, with a proper implementation of bioclimatic passive principles, the work seeks to indicate that it is possible to achieve a higher level than the current one. Hence, the huge number of tourists and overnight stays can make a difference in eco-tourism, and sustainable development if we can achieve energy efficiency, and preserve the natural resources in accordance with passive bioclimatic principles.Item After Rio+20: Preparing for Sustainable Retreat?(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Nováček, PavelThe industrial age has brought us much good: a higher quality of life which is reflected in better healthcare and education, a longer life expectancy etc. But besides the indisputable benefits, the industrial age has also caused many problems which are now assuming global proportions. In 1987 UN Commission on Environment and Development attempted to propose how to enable people and whole nations to develop while sustaining functioning ecosystems and healthy environment. The key term became “sustainable development”. But problem with sustainable development concept is that it is so vague and “all-embracing”. Its biggest deficiency is the fact that it fails to attempt to even define human needs. The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20 conference, June 2012) did not change current unsustainable development trends. Therefore we should allow for and ponder the possibility that effort at sustainable development will fail and the human community will experience great civilization turbulence. Maybe it is too late for sustainable development, what we need is a sustainable retreat. Our abilities are limited and promoting sustainable development may prove to be beyond us. In comparison with our ancestors we have much greater opportunities. But this has not been counterbalanced by greater responsibility and foresight. We should explore and study future opportunities and dangers that could occur under certain conditions. These images of possible futures may help to make our present decisions more qualified and responsible.Item Agrarian-economic structure of agricultural holdings in Poland and East Germany: Selected elements of comparative analysis(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2014) Jezierska-Thöle, Aleksandra; Janzen, Jörg; Rudnicki, RomanThe aim of this study was to determine differences in the development of farms in Poland against the agriculture of East Germany, and to show areas with similar conditions for development. The time range of the research covered the years 2002–2010, i.e. the stage of preparation of Polish agriculture for accession to the European Union, the implementation of pre-accession aid programmes, and the establishment and implementation of the tools of the Common Agricultural Policy. To assess the level of agricultural development, natural, productive and social characteristics were adopted. Spatial variations in the analysed features were based on the variation coefficient (Vz), and the level of agricultural development, on Perkal’s index (Wi). In the analysed period the range of variation and the degree of the spatial dispersion of sub-indices changed, indicating a deepening of the polarisation processes in agriculture. The implementation of CAP intensified the process of specialisation and modernisation in agriculture, an example of which is the increase in the average farm size and in agricultural productivity. On the other hand, agricultural production intensified, as exemplified by a decrease in the minimum value in six of the analysed characteristics, which indicates growing disparities.Item Agricultural land on built-up housing lots and the incomes of communes: An example of Rokietnica commune in the Poznań agglomeration(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2017) Maćkiewicz, Barbara; Karalus-Wiatr, CecyliaThe strong connection between urbanisation processes and the transformation of farmland into built-up areas – mostly residential – has already been tackled in the literature. Still, in Poland this process of farmland loss, generally thought to be irreversible, occurs in a specific, often irrational and not fully registered way. What is more, this development is favoured by legislation, especially rules controlling the exclusion of land from agricultural production and real-estate taxation. Among the many detrimental consequences of those regulations are incomes of communes lower than they should be. The problem tackled in the article is that of the exclusion from agricultural use of only fragments of geodetic lots on which building investments are going on. The cost of the exclusion and the difference in the rates of the agricultural tax and the real-estate tax very often result in the exclusion of only a part of a lot, while the rest of it is formally still in agricultural use, even though its owner does not conduct any agricultural activity there. In this case two taxes have to be paid from one lot: the real-estate tax, on the land taken out of agricultural use and the building erected on it, and another, the agricultural tax, on land that is still a piece of farmland. This situation, especially in areas undergoing rapid urban sprawl, is common in Poland and has unfavourable consequences for the incomes of communes. It also leads to a discrepancy between data from the real-estate cadastre and the actual area of land in agricultural use, which greatly hampers an exact measurement and control of the real losses of land performing the agricultural function, including that with high-quality soils. The conducted research demonstrated that in 2014 nearly 7% (927) of all geodetic lots in Rokietnica commune, situated in the immediate neighbourhood of Poznań, were builtup housing lots, mostly carrying detached single-family houses, with fragments of farmland. Almost a half (49.4%) of the total area of those lots, 42 ha, was still agricultural land in the real-estate cadastre and subject to taxation not by the real-estate tax, but the much lower agricultural tax. Because of this difference in the two taxes, the annual receipts of the commune budget are 186,601 zlotys (43,395 euro) lower. It also turned out that more than 50% of farmland on those lots (21.8 ha) was arable land of the good land-capability class III, which is high for the conditions in the Poznań agglomeration. This not only corroborates the findings of earlier studies highlighting significant losses of good-quality arable land taking place as a result of urban sprawl, but it also means that in the Polish conditions actual losses are much higher than would follow from records in the real-estate cadastre. It can also be stated that the Polish legal rules not only fail to adequately protect farmland situated within metropolitan areas, but even favour its excessive loss.Item Agriculture of the Czech Republic in the 21st century: From productivism to post-productivism(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Věžník, Antonín; Král, Michael; Svobodová, HanaDuring last two decades Czech agriculture has gone through significant changes: the transition of agriculture in the 1990s and the entrance of the Czech Republic into the EU and its commitment to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Both of these changes contributed to the structural and regional differentiation of Czech agriculture and exposed it to competition with the whole of Europe. Furthermore, CAP exposed Czech agriculture to uneven conditions for farmers within the EU. The most significant results of these changes have been a decrease in the agricultural sector output, a reduction in farm animals bred, and shrinkage of arable land. On the other hand, many non-productive and non-agricultural activities in the rural areas are subsidised, which offers farmers new possibilities of development. The aim of this paper is to analyse the structural and spatial change in Czech agriculture between 2000 and 2010 on the basis of Agrocenzus data supplemented by opinions of farmers gained in a series of interviews.Item Analogue aerial-photographs external orientation reconstruction based on geoportal data(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2011) Dzieszko, PiotrFor acquisition of source data for geoinformation analyses is necessary to do some field works. This way of data acquisition is time-consuming. In this case, photogrammetric and remote sensed methods can be more effective choice. Especially orthophotomap extracting is more effective process in creation of geodata. It is good foundation for further analysis and nice extension of existing geographical information systems. Despite fast growth of photogrammetry there are plenty of analogue, archival airphotos which can be used for geoinformation analysis. They are quiet up to date and scanned in very high resolution which means they can be used for really reliable analysis. The problem is very important because many of analogue, archival air photos do not contain photogrammetric warp. The aim of this paper is expression of applicability of geoportal webpage, which is part of INSPIRE directive, that can be used for external orientation reconstruction when there is no other georeference data.Item Analysis and visualisation of lake disappearance process in Iława Lakeland Landscape Park(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2018-06) Marynowska, Weronika CecyliaLake disappearance as a natural stage of evolution of lakes is an extremely important issue in the landscape and ecosystem research context. Studies of the changes that occur in the lake landscape, characteristic in the northern part of Poland, are aimed at defining the cause and forecasting the results. The possibilities of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used in this paper to analyse and visualise the process of lake disappearance in the Iława Lakeland Landscape Park. GIS technologies which primarily are used for gathering, storing, processing and presenting spatial data have been used to interpret changes in lakes coverage over a period of 100 years. The analysis were based on data bases and cartographic former maps such as hydrographic maps, attribute data and bathymetric plans. The data was gathered by transfer from different geoportals, next vectorised, and then preprocessed. Former maps were rectified. The lake disappearance process was presented in several forms: lake cards, animations and interactive map. Basing on the GIS analysis about lake disappearance in Iława Lakeland Landscape Park it was possible to state that lakes are disappearing in rate of 3.99 ha a–1.Item Analysis of sediments in the north-east morainic upland edge zone in the vicinity of Piaski Pomorskie (West Pomerania, NW Poland)(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2016) Paluszkiewicz, Ryszard; Paluszkiewicz, RenataThe aim of this article is the description of lithofacies characteristics of sediments forming the north-east part of the morainic upland edge zone in the vicinity of Piaski Pomorskie (West Pomerania). The paper undertake also an attempt to reconstruct paleogeographical conditions of the formation of moranic uppland edge. The diversifcation of glaciofuvial and fuvial processes during the phase of stagnation and recession of uppervistulian ice-sheet in the vicinity of Piaski Pomorskie (Western Pomerania) led to the formation of a morainic upland edge distinctly marked in morphology The edge zone separates the undulating moraine plateau from a lower situated Dębnica River Valley. This area is mostly formed by fne-grained sands with occasional layers of a coarser fraction of gravel and coarse- and medium-grained sands. The observed type of low-angle cross-stratifcation and trough cross-stratifcation indicates the dominance of diversifed energy depositional environment with considerable power of water as transporting medium. The research area was formed at the front of the ice-sheet, which receded from the nearby reach of the Pomeranian Phase of the Weichselian glaciation.Item Analysis of the labour market in metropolitan areas: A spatial filtering approach.(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych UAM, 2012) Kossowski, T omasz; Hauke, JanThe power of today's computers allows us to perform computation on massive quantities of data on the one hand and produces enormous amounts of analysis output on the other, as noted by Griffith in his 2003 book. Besides, visualisation and spatial filtering (the core of considerations in Griffith’s book) have a chance to be widely used in research practice, especially in geosciences and, more precisely, for georeferenced data. Following the idea proposed by Patuelli et al. (2006, 2009), we analysed the labour market in Poland, focusing on metropolitan areas and their surroundings. The analysis was performed on a data set for the unemployment rate in the 2,478 Polish communes. We took into account spatial autocorrelation and used spatial filtering techniques to construct components of an orthogonal map pattern. As shown in Tiefelsdorf & Griffith (2007), the spatial filtering techniques could be employed in both, parametric and semi-parametric approaches. In this paper we adopted a parametric one.Item Application of graph theory to the morphological analysis of settlements(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2017-12) Szmytkie, Robert; Kostrzewski, Andrzej; Stryjakiewicz, Tadeusz; Zwoliński, ZbigniewIn the following paper, the analyses of morphology of settlements were conducted using graph methods. The intention of the author was to create a quantifiable and simple measure, which, in a quantitative way, would express the degree of development of a graph (the spatial pattern of settlement). When analysing examples of graphs assigned to a set of small towns and large villages, it was noticed that the graph development index should depend on: a relative number of edges in relation to the number of nodes (β index), the number of cycles (urban blocks), which evidences the complexity of the spatial pattern of settlement, and the average rank of nodes of a graph, which expresses the degree of complexity of a street network.Item Application of the spatial database for shoreline change analysis and visualisation: example from the western Polish coast, southern Baltic Sea(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2018-09) Kostecki, RobertThe main aim of the study was to introduce a spatial database application for the estimation of changes in shoreline position. The open-source PostgreSQL database system with the PostGIS spatial extension was used as the data store for digitalised shorelines. The solution to calculations of the shoreline changes was based on the functions written in the PL/SQL language and geospatial functions provided by the PostGIS extension. The traditional baseline and transects method was used to quantify the distances and rate of shoreline movement. Outputs of the calculations were stored in the database table and simply visualised using graphical functions in the R software environment or in GIS Desktop software. The advantage of presented method is the application of SQL language in the analysis of the relation between the geometry of shorelines stored in the database table, which, compared to other similar solutions, gives the user fully open, simple analytical code and enable selecting custom parameters of analysis, modifying code and performing additional calculations.Item Approach to students’ social representations in the construction of academic European geography: A case study of Spanish university students(Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, 2017) Macía-Arce, Xosé Carlos; Lois-González, Rubén Camilo; Rodríguez-Lestegás, Francisco; Armas-Quintá, Francisco XoséThis article provides the results of classroom research involving university students training to be secondary school teachers of geography and history. The research is based on the analysis of a word association test on Europe and the European Union. The results constitute an approach to the geographical and historical representations these students have of their own European continent. This is a fundamental question considering that this collective group is training to teach the contents and values of European geography in secondary school education. From here on, our intention is no other than to carry out an exercise of synthesis and overall reflection on the test results and introduce issues which could generate some debate in the educational community.Item Appropriation of public urban space as an effect of privatisation and globalisation(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2011) Mierzejewska, LidiaThe changes taking place in the public space of many cities of the world have been assessed as harmful. They are seen as resulting from modern processes shaping their spatial-functional structure. Among them are advancing privatisation, which leads to various forms of public space appropriation, and globalisation, which transforms the world from a world of cities and places into one of networks (especially the Internet and motorways). In Polish cities, however, the deterioration in the quality and accessibility of public spaces is due not only to the social awareness developing in the conditions of neoliberalism and a market economy, which puts private property above public to get over the experience of feasible socialism, but to some extent also to Polish legislation. The aim of this article is to present forms and ways of appropriation of public urban space in the conditions of privatisation and globalisation, as well as reasons why this development seems to intensify in the Polish conditions.Item Assessing the level of popularity of European stag tourism destinations(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2016) Iwanicki, Grzegorz; Dłużewska, Anna; Kay, Melanie SmithThe primary objective of this article is to determine the degree of popularity of stag tourism destinations in Europe. Research was based on the search engine method, involving an analysis of the highest positioned offers of travel agencies in the most commonly used search engines in Europe (Google, Bing, Yahoo). The analysis divided the studied cities into four categories in terms of popularity. Conducting the said analysis is strongly justified, because academic publications have so far not provided studies which have determined the degree of popularity of stag destinations on a continental scale.Item Assessment of bank erosion, accretion and lateral channel shifting using remote sensing and GIS: Case study – Lower course of the Bosna River(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2016) Lovric, Novica; Tosic, RadislavRiver bank erosion, accretion and lateral channel migration are the most important geomorphological pro- cesses, which attract a great deal of attention from river engineering scientist over the last century. In the presented study, we assessed how the river’s shape and position have changed during 1958–2013 period using remote sensing and GIS. We have identifed that the total area of bank erosion during given period equalled 8.3430 km2 , of which 3.2593 km2 were on the left bank and 5.0837 km2 on the right bank. The total area of bank accretion from 1958 to 2013 equalled 10.7074 km2 , of which 5.4115 km2 was on the left bank and 5.2958 km2 on the right bank. The Bosna riverbed average movement in the period 1958–2013 was established in the amount of 132.4 m. During this period, the average lateral channel migration was 2.5 m per year. The data presented here are signifcant for practical issues such as pre- dicting channel migration rates for engineering and planning purposes, soil and water management.Item A new approach to innovation and its application to the countries of the European Union(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Agüeros, Manuel; Casares-Hontañón, Pedro; Coto-Millán, Pablo; Castro, Pablo De; Pesquera, Miguel ÁngelThis research provides a new theoretical approach to innovation. Innovation relies on collaborative relationships between universities, private companies and public administration. This theoretical approach offers an opportunity for scientific discovery in an environment of collaboration. Innovative ideas are not self-contained items; they are more like ecosystems and networks. The article also provides data processed in recent years (2003–2009) for the European Union states, providing relevant empirical evidence on the relationship between human capital, relational capital, technological capital and innovation. In the econometric and statistical modelling, the countries of the Europe of the Fifteen (EU-15) will be considered.