Przegląd Strategiczny, 2019, nr 12
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Item African Dimension of the Belt and Road Initiative(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Kaczmarek, FilipThe research purpose of this paper is to examine the role of the BRI in China-Africa relations and the mutual interdependence between the BRI and other forms of Chinese presence in Africa. In order to attain this goal, the method of analysis of secondary data will be employed regarding concluded agreements, trade exchange, Official Development Assistance (ODA), foreign direct investment (FDI), debt, instruments of soft power and plans for the future. The analysis allows the several conclusions to be drawn. The BRI is so flexible that it can be extended in a relatively simple way and in a short period to other African countries. The BRI is the structuring factor in China’s strategic approach to Africa and can give new impetus to Chinese trade, investment and contracts in Africa. The former institutional co-operation framework that encompassed the whole of Africa was very general and did not result in the identification of such concrete sec- toral priorities as is the case with the BRI. The Initiative has exerted influence on China’s policy in Africa. There is no doubt that the Initiative’s core task in Africa is infrastructure connectivity, but one of the tasks proposed for the future is industrial relocation. If this task is accomplished, it may be fundamental for Africa’s development.Item Anxiety and Safety– the Ideology of the Consumer Society(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Pieszak, ErykOne of the basic human needs is safety. The article assumes that the consumer society must ful- fill this need. The aim of the analysis of scientific research on consumer society and its ideology is to try to answer the question: how is this happening? It is difficult to answer the above question clearly. It can be said, however, that a consumer- oriented market may be wrong, but it always cares about the consumer’s good. This is the basic message concerning safety that is to be provided to consumers. How does this safe world of the consumer look like? Building a safe world is a utopia. The presented sentence is not a discovery and it does not bring much. However, if there is no safe world, why is it so important and why are there areas of the world in which for many decades there have been no wars? You cannot look at all of Europe in this way. And yet the richest countries in the world are waging war not in their own territory, but going beyond it, they are guarding global security. It is sometimes difficult to say whether these activities were necessary for safety. One should rather ask what type of security we meant. Therefore, a justified question is whether in the consumer society security of financial turnover is not the most important one.Item Central Europe and NATO Transformation 2014–2018(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Gizicki, WojciechThe collapse of the Cold-War order in Europe brought about a radical change in the global security system. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the disbandment of the Warsaw Pact created a situation where the only serious and effective guarantee of stability in Europe was NATO. Central European states, which until that time had been subordinated to the USSR, un- equivocally and consistently chose to pursue the Euro-Atlantic direction in their security policy. The decision resulted in their gaining full, even though gradual, membership in the Alliance during the years 1999–2004. The accession process was first completed by the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Central Europe is not free from dangers stemming from national and su- pranational transformations. NATO is facing the need to increase its activity and systematically ensure joint cooperation and security guarantees as regards all its member states. This is pri- marily caused by a revival of Russia’s superpower ambitions under the presidency of Vladimir Putin and an escalation of terrorism and cyberspace threats. The decisions and practical actions related to biennial NATO summits are of vital importance in this respect. The text presented here is an analysis of the security of Central Europe within NATO structures in the light of the last three NATO summits: in Newport in 2014, in Warsaw in 2016 and in Brussels in 2018.Item China’s Strategic Economic Growth (1978-2018)(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Moiseev, Vladimir; Nitsevich, Victor; Sudorgin, OlegToday, China is the leading economic power, its gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 1979 to 2018 in 50 times, to $13,2 trillion. This is 10 times the GDP of Russia and almost 30 times the GDP of Poland. China’s nominal GDP is the second in the world after the United States. The authors not only reveal the factors of the Chinese phenomenon, but also attempt to analyze the main components of China’s success in economic development. The purpose of this study is a comprehensive analysis of key features of China’s economic development strategy. Тhe authors examine the key features of China’s economic development strategy, the priority directions of its modernization: public administration reforms, state regulation of the economy, analyze the features of attracting national and foreign investments for a breakthrough in socio-economic development. Тhe authors used the analytical, comparative, institutional and sociological methods.Item Civilizational Structure of Regional Integration Organizations(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Sardak, Sergii; Radziyevska, Svitlana; Prysiazhniuk, YuriyThe paper advances a new comprehensive complex approach to the investigation of the civili- zational aspects in the development of regional associations of countries. The research starts with the overview of historical dimensions of the civilizational approach and the contribution of the founding scholars to its development. It continues with the analysis of the scientific and methodological input of the followers and the critics of this approach. The authors suggest their theoretical approach to the identification of the modern local civi- lizations according to six parameters: natural, biological, technical, economic, social, and gov- erning. The civilizational affiliation of countries and the civilizational structure of major 17 regional associations of countries are identified. The results demonstrate that some regional groups have been more homogeneous in terms of civilizational composition, others – less homogeneous, which does not interfere with their dynamic development. However, the logic of the historical dynamics of human development indicates the inevitability of changing the current situation through prolonged civilizational conflicts resulting in significant changes in the global social dynamics and the civilizational structure of the world and of regional associations of countries. The identification of the civilization structure of countries and regional associations contrib- utes to the rational decision-making in the areas of international economic relations and to the formation of the integration/disintegration policies on the national and regional levels. It is predicted that from 2030 global social dynamics will undergo a fundamental break- through that will radically change the civilizational structure of the world and regional unions of countries.Item Digital Intervention in National Political Systems in the Conditions of Contemporary Information Society(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Volodenkov, Sergey V.The article analyzes the phenomenon of digital interference with national political systems in the conditions of the modern information society and the evolution of the Internet as a space of political communications. It is shown that digital intervention is relevant but at the same time a complex multidimensional phenomenon of contemporary politics. In many respects, the potential of the digital interference phenomenon is closely related to the substantive and functional features of the functioning and transformation of the contemporary Internet, which has been actively used when changing political regimes in many countries. The initiatives of countries to form the sovereign national segments of the Internet space are, on the one hand, an attempt to protect their political systems from external influence and invasion, to ensure their own political stability, and on the other hand, they pose risks to the democratic potential of the Internet. The article substantiates the thesis that the phenomenon of interference with elections in actual practice often becomes not so much an objective process as an instrument of information warfare, mass political propaganda and discredit of political opponents, a manipulative tool that can be actively used not only by authoritarian regimes with a low level of democratic development. It is noted that differences in understanding and defining the essence of the Internet by various countries give rise to a significant potential for political conflicts on a global scale. This leads the author to conclude that it is necessary to form institutions that are able to prevent and regu- late information conflicts in the Internet space, as well as reduce global political risks (including risks associated with potential interference in the electoral process of sovereign states), forming a collective responsibility in the functioning of the global Internet.Item Dilemmas Related to the Poland’s Participation in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Tomaszewska, Paula; Pohl, ArturThe aim of the article is to show the dilemmas related to the Poland’s participation in the Chi- nese Belt and Road Initiative. The theory behind the paper is that the Belt and Road Initiative has divided the mainstream of public discourse into two main threads: an optimistic option – one that sees opportunities in the participation in the initiative – and a pessimistic one, high- lighting the threats to the security of the Polish state. The authors will answer the following research questions: how is the BRI presented in the Polish public discourse? What are the main opportunities and challenges resulting from Poland’s accession to the initiative? A desk research analysis of all types of Polish-Chinese relations will also be conducted.Item Dimensions of Social Diversity in Europe(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Szewior, KrzysztofThe aim of the publication is to learn the dimensions of social differentiation by applying socio- economic indicators, as well as to indicate the importance of economic and social conditions as the leading factors in building the social order of national states and the European Union. The main research question concerned the issue whether and under what conditions it is possible to achieve improvement in the level of social cohesion? The experience and knowledge allow to assume that the most important in achieving social and economic cohesion are: the level of economic development and socio-political consensus regarding the distribution and circulation of social goods, rather than the model of national social policy. The adopted assumption was verified, confirmed the dominant role of the social contract, the scope of social solidarism and the developed GDP. These elements determine social development and determine the competitive advantage of national economies. In view of the weakness of institutions and EU-wide solutions, they consolidate the multidimensional disproportions between European societies. The analysis is based on research methods of politics and social policy. Statistical data was provided by national and EU institutions.Item EU-NATO Partnership in 2017–2018 – Towards a New Model of Effective Response to Threats(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Przybylska-Maszner, BeataThe purpose of this article is to understand the factors determining the state of European Union-NATO relations since 2017. Current determinants of these relations are discussed alongside the structures of interinstitutional links between the two organizations. In order to properly investigate the research problems identified, qualitative selection of sources in the form of legal acts and ‘soft law’ documents of the organizations concerned has been em- ployed. The research questions addressed in the analysis concern the sources and dynamics of changes in these relations. The answers are based on an examination of the determinants of behavior of participants in the decision-making process of both organizations. The article is based on the assumption that, in the period analyzed, the hitherto principle of correlation of tasks based on the two organizations mutually complementing their respective potentials, has been modified. Recurrent situations calling for a joint and multidimensional response to cri- ses have considerably widened the potential scope of strategic commitment of both partners and contributed to their links becoming stronger. Intensified activities aimed at developing the EU’s CSDP have occurred while political disputes regarding the role of both entities in the new balance of strategic forces have significantly multiplied. European limitations on ex- ercising an actual military influence in the region impede the chances of effective cooperation between the two entities.Item Mega FTA as a Signal Against Trade Protectionism Focused on the EU and Japan FTA(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Park, Sang-ChulThe research questions of the paper are whether the EU Japan FTA can be a win-win approach or win-lose approach? Moreover what are reasons for the two parties to complete the FTA and which industrial sectors can be mostly profited in both parties? Last, but not least how to esti- mate impacts on the global economy? The hypotheses are FTA can reduce trade protectionism, and the former can generate more economic benefits to the participating countries than latter in the long term based on the trade dynamic group. The research methodology is to use cross sec- tional analysis based on statistic data and information collection as well as trade policy analysis. Additionally, critical analysis of literature and inference analysis are employed. The conclusion of the research is that the EU Japan FTA can generate about 0.76 percent GDP growth to the EU and about 0.29 percent GDP growth to Japan additionally per year next ten years long. Furthermore, it also creates new employment in both parties. Although the EU Japan FTA can create some looser particularly in East Asian economies such as South Korea, China, and Taiwan, their total amount is estimated as very low. In the global economy, the EU Japan FTA can generate much larger gains than lost. As a result, it is not only a win-win approach for the EU and Japan, but also for the whole global economy if it enters into force.Item Migration Policy as Instrument of Ensuring National State Security(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Burda, Mikhail; Gerasimova, Irina; Ochacha, MargaritaIn the article, the authors analyse the relationship of political processes, migration policy and national security of the state. The methodological basis of the research is dialectical, comparative and institutional methods. The dialectical method revealed the dynamics, current regularities and contradictions in the formation of the state migration policy. The compara- tive method contributed to identify characteristic features of the migration policy formation of some EU countries and Russia, taking into account the transformation of political systems. The institutional method allowed exploring the interaction of public authorities with other institutions of civil society. In order to process the empirical evidence, quantitative and quali- tative research methods were used. The factors of the migration attractiveness of the state, the stages of the migration process and migration risks are considered. In this regard, special attention is paid to the migration crisis in modern Europe. It also analyses the growth factors of the popularity of right-populist parties and the idea of the sovereign migration policy of individual member states of the European Union. Special attention is paid to the descrip- tion of the implementation plan for the “Prague Process” mechanisms on the example of the integration mechanisms of migrants to Austria and the Czech Republic, the participation of government bodies and civil society institutions in these mechanisms. Some features of the migration system of the Russian Federation are also considered in the context of ensuring national security. The research presents and analyses some statistical data on migration in Russia and global migration in the world.Item Non-Governmental Organizations as Actors of Ukrainian Politics of Memory(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Kornievskyy, Oleksandr; Rozumnyi, OlexiiThe article investigates the role of non-governmental organizations as subjects (actors) of Ukrainian politics of memory, as well as the mechanisms used by them to influence the forma- tion of the historical memory of Ukrainian society. The authors resort to comparative qualita- tive research, using an empirical-interpretative version of the method of studying specific cases (case study). The objects of analysis are: the Center for the Study of the Liberation Movement, “Tkuma” Ukrainian Institute for Holocaust Studies, and the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center. The results of the study indicate that NGOs are actively influencing the process of form- ing the historical memory of Ukrainian society. Methods of such influence can be both direct (through various educational activities) and indirect (through interaction with state institutions responsible for the implementation of national memory policy). The effectiveness of this influence is determined by such important factors as the availability of sponsors with significant financial means and/or lobbyists in government agencies and institutions that are part of the state memory policy infrastructure.Item Perceptions of China’s Role in the MENA Region, The 5th China and the Middle East and North Africa Conference, Shanghai, 17–18 May, 2019(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Dahl, MichałItem Political Security in Authoritarian Systems with a Resource Rent Economy: a Result of the „Social Contract” and High Resource Prices?(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Akhremenko, Andrei; Shulika, YuliaMost researchers believe that states which are rich in natural resources are more able to main- tain political stability in comparison to countries without such an access to exceptional profits. However, some rent resource autocracies are unanimously considered fragile, and their ability to extract maximum rents does not always contribute to political and economic security during price fluctuations. Based on the idea that the state’s ability to extract resources imposes on it certain ob- ligations, the research question touches upon the quality of governance as a supposed core factor, which mediates the resource dependence and political security in terms of stateness and the ability to fulfil the “social contract.” The latter is described as implementation of political decisions, pro- vision of public goods and services. However, the quality of governance is substantially different in various autocratic systems. Using case-study and descriptive statistics, the authors try to reveal the context and ascertain which factors trigger the horizon length of autocrats` political strategies during rising and falling resource prices. The authors affirm that resource dependence negatively affects political security less due to an absence of economic growth during price breaks, and more due to the struggle of political elites for the redistribution of resources, absence of disciplinary mechanisms, weak representation and accountability systems, and poor enabling environments as a basis for quality of resource management. The authors conclude that political security in autocratic resource economies is achieved through the coexistence of political will and triggers, conducive to specifying the length of the planning horizon.Item Revisiting Mackinder’s Heartland Theory: Identifying The Emergence of a Complex Power Competiton in the Indian Ocean Region(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Bakare, Najimdeen; Toor, Minahil R.Competition amongst great powers is not new in international politics. It has traditionally been the driving force for the creation and collapse of empires and states. In the 19th–20th centuries, the British Empire established its dominion in the world over and maintained an uncontested global supremacy. To secure Britain’s global dominance, in 1904, Sir Halford Mackinder dazed the world with his heartland theory. Ever since then, the theory remains one of the most discussed geopolitical theories. The article does not pretend or oblivious of the heaps of criticism Mackinder’s theory has received over several decades, it nonetheless, em- ploys the theory in the context of the contemporary international political environment, with particular reference to the happenings around the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and Arabian Sea. So therefore, the point of analysis here centres around the applicability of the theory and the implications posed by Mackinderian geographical rationalisation in formulating foreign policy around what the article considers as the contemporary pivot area – the Indian Ocean. Through the theoretical understanding of Mackinder’s thesis, the article argues that the Indian Ocean and its adjoining seas corridors and Straits are ‘pivot areas’ potential enough to gener- ate competition amongst regional and global powers. The new ‘pivot areas’ is enormously endowed with natural resources and is the major energy highway(s), upon which global economies are dependent. The article concludes by arguing that a complex power competition (CPC) is brewing along the neo-pivot region.Item Russian Politics Toward Ukraine: was there Ever a Strategic Partnership?(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Brusylovska, Olga; Koval, IgorThe hypothesis of this research was that these states never had a rich level of strategic partner- ship (despite the officially proclaimed status), but always remained a sort of “negative strate- gic dependence” because of the high level of asymmetry in their relations. I. Zhovkva proved that the attribute of strategic partnership is community of strategic interests without its further reflections existing relations are superfluous. G. Perepelytsia marked that scientists must dis- tinguish two definitions of strategic partnership – as a level of the attained cooperation and as an instrument of state foreign policy. In the given article strategic partnership is examined in two measures. The first part is sanctified to the use of the concept of strategic partnership in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation (on the example of Ukraine), and second to accordance of level of their cooperation proclaimed strategic partnership. After 1991, the goal of Moscow was ‘a friendly and neutral Ukraine.’ The relations were built primarily on an economic basis, but even then Russia widely used a ban on the import of some goods as a political instrument. After 2004, problems in Russian-Ukrainian relations related to the Russian military base in Crimea and the basing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet aggravated. Kremlin tried to destruct Ukraine rather than let it go its own way these witnessed against the contemporary concept of strategic partnership, which was the foundation of Russian politics towards Ukraine. Rather, the RF used very old policy of ‘stick and carrot’ (low gas prices and other economic preferences as the carrot, responsibility for ‘compatriots’ as the stick). The Treaty on Friendship, Coopera- tion, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation was denounced as well as all Russian-Ukrainian agreements on the Black Sea Fleet, so, the RF itself refuses from using ‘strategic partnership’ as instrument of its policy towards Ukraine.Item Russian Scientific Journals in the Area of International Relations – 2018 Review(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Macuhin, AlexandrItem Security - a network of interconnections. From the editor(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Wojciechowski, SebastianItem Security Priorities and their Perception by Local Communities. A Survey of Population in Wielkopolska 2015-2017(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Nowiak, WojciechThe aim of the article is to present the results of studies carried out in Wielkopolska regarding the perception of security by local communities, declared priorities and the impact of public debate and the media on these priorities. The studies were carried out in the former administra- tive region of Konin in 2015, 2016 and 2017. As the analysis shows, the narrative regarding individual and collective threats presented by politicians and the media had a large impact on individual priorities. This is evident from the assessment of the threat to national security and the assessment of such phenomena as terrorism, immigrants or the possibility of aggression from the East. With regard to individual security and changing priorities in this area, the impact of stabilization resulting from the implementation of social programs of the Law and Justice Party, with a special focus on the “Family 500 plus” program, is clearly noticeable. The results of the studies explicitly recommend their continuation in the years to come.Item Selected Aspects of Iran’s Hydrological Security(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Sakson-Boulet, AnnaThe main objective of this paper is to analyze Iran’s hydrological security and to verify the hypothesis that the low level of Iran’s hydrological security is one of the country’s most important ecological threats. An attempt to answer the following research questions is made using the quantitative method, decision-making method and institutional and legal analysis: (1) what water resources does Iran have, and are citizens suffering from a shortage of water?; (2) is the management of groundwater, closed reservoirs and rivers sustainable?; (3) do the actions of the Iranian authorities safeguard the hydrological security of the state? The analysis of the factors of Iran’s water security carried out in this paper leads to the conclusion that this country is facing a serious ecological crisis resulting from shrinking fresh water resources.