Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny, 1981, nr 4

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Badanie własności prognostycznych modelowych tablic trwania życia typu W. Brassa
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Zasępa, Ryszard
Model life tables can be generated according to the hypothesis of W. Brass by acceptance of an adequate table as standard one and by using the formula (1). The possibility was then examined of using such tables for mortality forecasting. Tables generating a system, by which the tables are generated, depends upon two parameters α and ß, interpretation of which has been described. Model tables closeness has been examined on the ground of existing life tables for Poland by town and villages when (I) the life table 1970 - 1972, or (II) an average of the life tables 1960-1961 and 1970 - 1972 were taken as a standard. Differences in real values lx and in values from model tables occured. An example has been given for men in Table 1, and results have been shown. The results rx occur systematically and runs are created by their signs. Forectasting that is based on model tables delivers biased forectasts. It can be significantly diminished by taking into account the biases estimated from the past data. Such a forecast has been done experimentally in two variants for the year 1980. In the variant I in estimation of parameters α and ß data for age-groups x=1, 5, 10, 15, ..., 85 years have been taken into account, and for the variant II data for the years x=1, 75, 80, 85 have been omitted. Differences in expectation of life at age x, ex have been presented in Table 2, and in Table 3 — death pro probability nqx within the interval (x, x+n) for both forecasts variants. Comparisons lead to the conclusion that both variants are too optimistic, and the projection obtained from variant II is relatively more relevant. The data for the last one are presented in Table 4. Expectation of life at age x, ex and death probability have been compared in Tables 5 and 6, for the years 1970, 1973,1976 and the projection 1980, respectively. The necessity of the Brass model extension to more than two parameters is stated in the conclusion. Further studies will shown, whether proper modifications lead to more realistic mortality projection.
Badanie zgodności poziomu rozwoju demograficznego i gospodarczego Polski w ujęciu przestrzennym
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Zając, Kazimierz
The task that has been formulated in the article consists in showing some general regularities and tendencies in shaping the demographic and economic processes, determination of their mutual relationships and formulation — in outline — of causes of occured changes. A hypothesis has been accepted that the level of demographic development is conditioned by economic development. It's aimed then at obtaining bases to accept or reject a formulated hypothesis, on the ground of empirical research. The coefficient of concordance between levels of economic and demographic development has been used in the elaboration. The research concerns the data for the year 1976 by the voivodeships. Some conclusions appear as a result of the research. The population's development is governed by some specific rules. Obtained results do not confirm the preliminary accepted hypothesis. No concordance has been observed between economic and demographic development in voivodeships. It presumably results from the fact that changes in demographic processes are much more slower than changes in economic development, which can be steered in an undoubtedly easier way.
Bezdzietność w Polsce
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Vielrose, Egon
Childlessness is analyzed among married women aged 35 - 39 in 1970. A strong relationship was found between the proportion of childless women and the gross reproduction rate with a time-lag of 10 years. The respective regression equation seems, however not to be stable in time. The proportion of married women aged 30 - 34 having no children below age 16 might also serve to estimate the proportion of childless women.
Bibliografia prac prof. dr Stanisława Borowskiego
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Borowska, Zdzisława
Charakter i miejsce demografii we współczesnej nauce
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Pavlík, Zdeněk; Bielówka, Leokadia
Demography originated by reason of development of empirical approach in science and it has been closely connected with statistical methods from the very beginning. A strong position of methodology in demography and poorly developed demographic theory are explained by that. The process of demographic study starts in contradistinction to many other empirical domains from preparation of demography subject with the aid of statistical description and only then it comes to its closer examination. A basic part of information about reality vanishes in the preparation process and an important position of demographic analysis in demography is explained by that. From the point of view of development principle — on which hither to existing science classifications are based — demography places itself on a border-line between natural and social domains. This principle is, however, insufficient so it is necessary to complete it with complexity principle. Demography can be judged as a rudimental domain that occupies itself with reproduction of human populations as a resulting process as well as with most important factory bs which this process is influenced. In the same way as each other empirical domain demography can be internally divided according to a criterion: complex-fragmentary, real-abstract, general, -detailed, into four basic sub-domains (Fig. 3): population demography, demographic analysis, theory and methodology of demography. Demography is extensively connected with other empirical domains in the frames of science. These domains deal with other aspects of human existence, human populations and society. It is also connected with methodological domains and the Marxist and Lenin philosophy. The demography experience finds its use in economic and social planning and it is a basis of population policy as a part of social policy.
Choice of Econometric Model for the Discriminative Prediction
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Pawłowski, Zbigniew
The author occupies himself in the article with conditions that should be fulfilled by an econometric model that is supposed to serve a purpose of the discriminative prediction. After brief remarks on the subject of discrimination prediction (para 1) six fundamental conditions are discussed in the next part that should be fulfilled by a good model. In turn, Section 3 is devoted to discussion of the notions of efficiency and reliability of decisive variables. Efficiency is understood as intensity of stochastis connection of these variables with goal variables, and reliability of decisive variables — as probability of actual reaching the desired values in the predicted time by them. Section 4 is devoted to considerations on economic effectiveness of decisive variables changes of which are combined with cost of action and with reliability. Section 5 concerns elasticity of decisive variables (understood as a degree of ability to show significant changes values from time period to time period). Then, in the sixth part of the article proposals are presented of some aggregate measures enabling the analysis of the extent in which changes of goals variables, designed for the future, result from changes in decisive variables level, purely exogeneous variables, delayed endogeneous variables and from random factors.
Czas, przestrzeń i ich struktury formalne
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Ponsard, Claude; Rutkowska, Czesława
Consideration on formal structures of time and space mainly based on humanistic and social sciences is proposed in the study. The first part answers the question whether these formal structures are similar or different. The author supports the opinion that time possesses one formal structure while there are many different formal structures in the case of space. Time has a structure of complete succession by inclusion relation. It is verified not only by mensurable (or chronological) time, but also by structural (or operational) time. On the other hand, space is connected with so differentiated presentation ways, that it produces various configurations. It results from this, that formal structures with which abstract spaces are equiped, together with considered physical and human spaces are numerous and more or less strongly dependent on this whether metric spaces, topological spaces or graphs are concerned. A problem of supplementary nature towards the first one, and namely of comparative properties of time and space, introduced by their adequate formal structures, is discussed in the second part. The discussion concerns four main properties: direction, reversibility, homogeneity and continuity. Time direction is obvious while space direction refers to examination of isotropy properties. Irreversibility of time is visible for its reversibility, which is sustained sometimes, is a false problem. On the other hand, reversibility problem for space depends on symmetry properties, except directed and non-symmetrical graphs (condition of the lack of peripheries). While time is homogeneous, space is once homogeneous and once heterogeneous. Continuity is connected with the nature of time. In the case of space it depends on conditions of accessibility, and continuity notions in empirical meaning and in mathematical meaning are not similar, unless in some particular case. An opinion is underlined in the conclusion, that time is less abundant than space in proper formal structures and comparative properties.
Demografia i historia
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Henry, Louis; Rutkowska, Czesława
The author reflects on relations between demography and history. He evaluates the role of demographic research in cognition of the past, and moves a problem to which extent demography is related to natural sciences. He arrives at the conclusion that historical demography embraces only a part of demography of the past, since it is restricted — on the one hand — by paleodemography in respect of the kind of research tools and statistical sources used and on the other — by contemporary demography. In the days to come historical demography should become an auxiliary science for history similarly as it is in case of archeology. The research results of historical demography can be, however, of direct importance not only for history but also for other sciences.
Działalność organizacyjno-naukowa i dydaktyczna Profesora Stanisława Borowskiego
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Wierzchosławski, Stanisław
Stanisław Florian Borowski, an outstanding economist, statistician and demographer, professor at the Academy of Economics in Poznań, for many years head of the Department of Economic Statistics and Demography, director of the Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, former Deputy Rector for research, died suddenly July 10th 1977 while conducting demographic surveys. Prof. Borowski was an outstanding scholar having great and original achievements in research. He left a great research outcome encompassing more than 250 publications, in that number 14 monographies and over 50 studies and dissertations. A substantial part of his publications was issued in foregin languages. As the scholar he presented himself as a very rich personality interested in many, different spheres of Knowledge. Prof. Borowski was the scholar of great caliber, of rare intellectual culture. He represented a deep and exploratory intellect. He was involved, with a great passion, in all his research activities, in which he presented his humanism as well as an uncompromising attitude when truth in science was concerned. Prof. Borowski was an outstanding research organizer. In Poznań Academy of Economics he established the Department of Economic Statistics and Demography. That department became one of the strongest demographic research centers in Poland being also respected abroad. In 1972 Prof. Borowski was appointed to a post of Chairman of the Comittee of Demographic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences, (he fullfilled this duty till his sudden death). As a research organiser in the field of demography he made agreat contribution to new research initiatives as well as to research development projections. He was an active member of the Polish State Commission on Population Policy founded by the Ministry Counsil. Thanks to his efforts an intensive cooparation with research centers abroad was developed. He organized several national and international conferences on demography. Prof. Borowski had a big share in education of young scholars. Thanks to his initiative the Subsection of Demometrie of the Polish Academy of Sciences has been created. That subsection has contributed to promotion of the newest statistical-mathematical methods in demography. Prof. Borowski confered a doctor's degree on 14 people creating a basis for development of his own, modern school of demography. He made a great contribution to a popularization of science being an editor of several scientific periodicals. He was an editor of the economic division of the quarterly „Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny", co-editor of „Poznańskie Roczniki Ekonomiczne", subeditor of „Studia Demograficzne" and editor of the annal „Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski". Prof. Borowski was entirely devoted to science. Unfortunately he could not finish his great work for the benefit of science. His health condition was weadend after many years spent in concentration camps during the last world-war and after many years of an intensive research work. An extremely modest, noble and honourable man, a scholar of rich intelligence and an indefatigable, broad-minded researcher departed from this world.
Dzietność małżeństw według wybranych cech społeczno-ekonomicznych w Republice Federalnej Niemiec
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Schwartz, Karl; Roeske-Słomka, Iwona
A review of birth development in Germany within the last hundred years leads to determination of the present level of the number of children as very low, hence importance of some selected socio-economic features for a number of children possessed by married couples has been examined. It has been stated that the family number of children grows smoothly along with husbands' incomes. Such an observation has been made especially for families in which the woman does not work professionally. Married couples, in which women work professionally, possess significantly less children than others. Particularly, absence of children has been stated in the marriages, in which women earn relatively much money. Irrespective of women's paid work and of income level, the number of children is determined by standards of particular classes of society. The highest number of children occurs in self-dependent farms, then in marriages of workers, officials, and at the end — always with a very low number of children — marriages of employees. Decrease in the share of marriages of workers and of self-dependent farms, as well as the growth of the share of employees' marriages within the past 50 years, have influenced slightly the average number of children of all married couples. There is a justification, in spite of many reservations, for continuation of research on fertility differentiation when data from official statistics used.
Genealogia i demografia historyczna
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Dupâquier, Jacques; Rutkowska, Czesława
Genealogy, which is understood here as a set of technics used with the purpose of stating the relatives of the initial line of the given person, could render a great service to historic demography. Allowing to investigate families' histories in their unbroken succession it could simultaneously permit to answer important questions of biological (f. ex. is longevity hereditary?), social (f. ex. successive transition from townspeople to nobility), or demographic nature (f. ex. what are the processes of leaving country and going to towns?). Initial genealogies, that exist at present, possess important hardships, which make them not enough usable: they are not representative, often very incomplete, and chronologically unbalanced. Some of these weaknesses can be coped with when critical methods of historic demography used. The most important thing would be completing the tables of initial genealogy by preparation of family cards, on which all demographic phenomena would be written relating to re-constituted marriages. In conclusion the author recommends a numeration system called the Soza-Stradonitz system. He gives practical advice on research organization, and adducing notarial records in particular, what seems indispensable for the author from the point of view of genealogy's contribution to the true social history.
Jakościowe i ilościowe aspekty badań naukowych w świetle statystyki
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Steczkowski, Jan; Zeliaś, Aleksander
In the elaboration basic problems of qualitative and quantitative aspects of research in empirical sciences have been presented. The central idea of considerations is an opinion that placing these two aspects in opposition is unjustified and also that a division of statistics into quantitative and qualitative is conventional. Difficult qualitative problems of investigated reality can be solved thanks to quantitative methods which fulfil an ancillary role in qualitative analysis. Development of social sciences has caused intensive interest in statistical methods. Such a situation has raised new qualitative problems for statistics. Necessity of measurement improvement of indirectly unmeasurable phenomena has caused development of statistical methods suitable for weaker scales. Application of statistical methods based on these scales simplifies and also objectivizes cognizance. In order to avoid deformation of the studied processes it is obligatory to supplement formal analysis with analysis of the merits of these processes. This quantitative analysis has to be submitted to qualitative analysis.
Model demograficzny w zastosowaniu eksperymentalnym
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Mazur, Denis Peter; Janc, Alfred
A demographic model of fertility age curve is simulated to determine the effect of successive shitfs in women's aggregate age at birth. The age limits of women's reproductive span their age structure, and the annual number of livebirths are held constant in the first experiment" The second experiment involves an assessment of variation in women's reproductive-age span, Two experimental populations are distinguished: (1) the actual population by age, and (2) the life table type. The shape of age curve of fertility has a minimal affect on the cumulative rate for the life table age structure. When based on the actual population by single years of age, the cumulative rate of total fertility tends to fluctuate with changes in the peak age of women at childbearing. An increase in the average age of women at birth under the absolute constancy of parameter values usually augments the rate of total fertility. A slight decrease in completed fertility is observed for the life table type of age structure when the upper limit of women's reproductive span is advanced early. In the final simulation, when requirement of the constancy of parameter values is much relaxed the test corresponding to an intermediate value of the average age at childbearing generates the highest level of completed fertility. The author suggests that the most desirable approach seems to be a combination of analytic properties of the model with simulation.
Morfologia rodzin polskich w świetle danych z narodowego spisu powszechnego z dnia 7 grudnia 1978 r.
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Romaniuk, Kazimierz
On the ground of initial results of the National Census recently carried out an attempt has been undertaken to present the situation and structure of households and families in Poland. On the day of the Census Poland numbered 35,061,000 people, 10,048,000 households, and 9,435,000 families. One-family households prevailed (77,8%), especially in the country, where they amounted to 81,4% of the total number of households. The share of two-family households is insignificant not only in towns, where they amounted to 3,8%, but also in the country (6.2%). The share of three-family households, or even larger, is insignificant (0,1%). It delivers a picture of decay of multi-generation families in Poland, which existed in the past. A predominating place is occupied by a model of family consisting of both parents and children (63,6%). Families consisting of a mother all alone and her children amount to 11,8%, and of a father and children only to 1,5% of the total number of families. In the subsequent part of the article the problem of the number of children in families has been considered, as well as the problem of so called economic number of children. It results from it, that country families pay substantially higher economic efforts in favour of the process of generation replaceability than urban families.
Nauczanie statystyki i demografii na uniwersytetach węgierskich (1777 -1977)
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Kovacsics, Józef; Rzepczyński, Piotr
The author of the study refers to the most importa at stages of the two hundred years progress, he discusses the work of the famous professors who have contributed to the education of statistics at the Hungarian universities as well as the main tendencies of the education. He shows the changes following the liberation of the country in 1945 which led to the expansion of the organizational framework of the education and to development of special branches of statistics. The author evaluates the participation of the Hungarian statisticians in the scientific life. He touches upon the close and friutful connection of the statistical departments of the universities and of the Central Statistical Office.
Nauka demografii a przyszła liczba ludności
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Urłanis, Borys. C.; Walkowiak, Halina
The significance of demographic sciences has been underlined in the article. The sciences acquire still more importance today. Forecasting questions should be the main subject of interests of those sciences. The narrow ideas of some scientists had to be emphasized that the earth could feed population about 10-13 times more numerous than at present. All the opinions, according to the author, that are based on „uncompetent optimism" (a notion formulated by D. M. Gwissiani — Member of the Soviet Academy of Sciences), should be rejected. It can be assumed on the ground of modern trends in reproductiveness and mortality that the crude natural growth rate will approximate zero at the end of the 21st century. It means stabilization of the earth's population at the level of 13 milliards people on the turn of the 21st century. It should be mentioned here that the earth's resources allow to increase production of foodstuffs and of other means of population's maintenance at the level adequate to human standards about 3 times. It fully suits the triple growth of the earth's population.
O pewnym problemie analizy wzdłużnej. Ocena zdarzeń demograficznych metodą kohort
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Pressat, Roland; Rutkowska, Czesława
A longitudinal analysis requires utilization of statistics of demographic events located in cohorts history. And so, too often, and in practice always, these statistics are prepared by age (in completed years) of units or by antiquity (in completed duration periods) of cohort's elements. That should be then separated what refers to age given in numbers of events regarding each of both cohorts contributing to event's appearance at that age. The article is devoted just to a method allowing to do such a separation, explaining it on the ground of statistics referring to first marriages (of single people) of French women in 1962. Such a re-grouping of data by generations delivers to satisfactory results.
O potrzebie opracowania koncepcji i metody szacowania struktury ludności bez zniekształceń i zakłóceń
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Valkovics, Emil; Janc, Alfred
The interpretation of age-pyramids representing population structures qualified as distorted may be found mostly in the form of specifying the causes of „cuts" and „protrusions" seen on them, without taking their multiplying effects exerted mostly on the number of birth into consideration. The calculation of age-pyramids or population structures referring to identical dates of observation necessitates to eliminate the effects deemed as causing distortions, occured extraordinarily during the century preceding the observation of the population on the life history of each of the birth cohorts (generations) constituting the population. After calculating (estimating) the population sùrplusses or losses regarded as extraordinary, as well as their structures, we have to elaborate the hypotheses on mortality, nuptiality, fertility and external migration of their — and of their descendants — further lives. Afterwards, on the basis of fictive numbers of the populations of the related birth cohorts for the termination of the effects causing distortions up to the date of the observation „population projections" are to be realized. The age-pyramid and population structure without distortion may be compared with the real (distorted) age-pyramid and population structure in several ways. The calculation of the structure of subpopulations without any perturbation — constituting the population — necessitates also the elimination of the effects of differences in the mortality and external migration of the subpopulations, beyond the so-called rectangular standardization of the age-specific rates of the subpopulation observed transversally. If it is not possible, we have to apply the hypotheses of independency and continuity. However, neither the elimination of the effects of differences observable in the calendar within the individual cohorts concerning the longitudinal sums of the age specific rates of subpopulations can be neglected. Beyond the transversal population structures without any distortion and perturbation, also their longitudinal versions referring to individual birth cohorts (generations) can be calculated, as they are in interrelation with the transversal versions of the former one, that may be described also in mathematical way.
Pięć wieków rewolucji demograficznej w Europie Zachodniej
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Mols, Roger
We can simultaneously talk about social and historic advantages resulting from investigation of demographic revolution, which have taken Western Europe over the past five hundred years. It makes easier to understand the past, the present and the future. Just as in collective drama, so this revolution started from a prelude, and then two acts have followed. The drama has introduced three factors, which determine the whole demographic evolution: a number of marriages, reproductiveness and mortality. During the prelude the proscenium was occupied by the first factor owing to creation of the „European model of marriage", constituted by a high average age of contraction of the first marriage and substantial proportion of unmarried women. Those two features hampered significantly birth possibilities in the era, when projected life duration was very restricted. The first act shows us a duel between life and deatfi, undergoing vicissitudes in dependence on countries and the decade, starting from the 18th century till 1930. At first mortality retreated, so in epidemic aspect as in endemic one. Infant mortality decrease resulted in improvement of projected life duration. That progress realized from the 18th century, and even more in the 19th century. Reproduction had its differentiated evolution until the last thirty years of the 19th century. A natural surplus became very significant in majority of countries. Only France differed in that respect. Still befor 1800 fertility in France diminished under the influence of the first wave, still restricted one, of „birth control" of peassant and handicraft types. When about 1880 the second wave, connected with industrialization, started in England, it reached the heart of hard-working Europe before 1914 and caused decrease in fertility, still lasting after the first world war. About 1930, demographic equilibrium was seriously disturbed in many countries. Just then an unexpected jump occured, causes of which deserve consideration, which caused a „baby boom" throughout 20 years. A new contraceptive offensive, which is created by trilogy: pill, abortion, sterilization, started about 1965. It caused a decrease in a replacement coefficient below an absolutely necessary level (2,10 children per woman) in all countries except Ireland. The decline was spectacular in many countries. And not without reason, people concerned with human future are frightened by the vision of Apocalypse. So, civilizations are mortal.
Polityka ludnościowa Chin modelem dla trzeciego świata?
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Schubnell, Herman; Chuchracka, Iwona
Chinese experience in a struggle with an excessive increase of the population is discussed in the article. Among Asiatic countries that have significant achievements in reducing the birth-rate a significant place is occupied by the Chinese People's Republic. The success was scored by China unaided owing to the society's discipline. Three basic stages are distinguished by the author of actions against excessive increase of the Chinese population: the years 1949 - 1954, 1955 - 1966 and since 1966. In the first stage the traditional valuation system, considerably a feudal system, in which a place was for a great family with a strong man's domination was destroyed. A democratic system of marriage contracts was announced with a free partner's choice, monogamy and legal protection of mother and child. In the second stage the period 1962 --1966 of strong anti-natalic compaign stood out especially by propagation of late marriage contracts. The period was interrupted by the 'cultural revolution'. The third period distinguishes itself with a planned and institutional approach to the action of restriction of increase of thé population. The Chinese system of struggle with an excessive increase of the population cannot rather be used in other countries of the Third World. It is too much connected with typical Chinese conditions, with Chinese discipline and — politically — with Chinese way of communism. According to the author developing countries can, however, fully study the Chinese case to see how the comprehensive approach leads to the end.

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