Przegląd Strategiczny, 2020, nr 13
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Item “Active Measures” of the USSR Against the USA: Old Soviet Games in the New Geopolitical Reality(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Dubov, Dmytro; Barovska, Anastasiia; Koretska, IrynaThe growth and dissemination of Russia’s propaganda have become a serious threat in recent years. But these efforts of Russia are not new, they have a basis in the past – known as “active measures.” Therefore, the problem of detecting and counteracting these “active measures,” first and foremost, is that there is no commonly accepted definition of the term. Therefore, the authors addressed the specific problem of the definition of “active measures.” The authors found that all “active measures” were subordinated to a single political strategic idea, and this idea was carried out by various methods. The authors are convinced that any classification of current “active measures” should be based on the methods detected. In order to identify these methods, the scheme of “active measures,” suggested by S. K. Whittle, is used. At the same time, his scheme has been supplemented, and the relevant cases for the application of different methods of “active measures” are given. An attempt is made to compare the methods of applying “active measures” with current aspects of the hybrid war of the Russian Federation, in particular in Ukraine.Item Baltic-Black Sea Region as a Resilient Region: Political and Security Aspects(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Gladysh, Marianna; Krayevska, Oksana; Holovko-Havrysheva, OksanaThe conceptual bases of resilience in modern political science are analyzed, including the key conceptual approaches that are used in academic studies for understanding the policy of resilience, characterizing the reaction of subjects to stress or threat of any kind and origin. The concept of resilience is applied to analyze the cooperation among the Baltic-Black Sea countries as a regional interaction model which should be formed in order to reduce or avoid security crises. The Baltic-Black Sea countries have developed and formed strong ties in different dimen¬sions among one another, opening an opportunity for intellectual adventures in the area of the conceptualization of their interaction modes under the regional cooperation frameworks. Based upon the analyzed doctrinal views and available documentary backgrounds on resilience in the UN and the EU, the possible visions and scenarios for the creation of the Baltic-Black Sea region as a resilient one are given. The existing and potential obstacles to cooperation in the region are highlighted. The main threats and challenges for the Baltic-Black Sea region at present are investigated.Item Boko Haram – the Evolution of Jihad Activity in Nigeria 2015–2019(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Wejkszner, ArturThis article analyzes the rise and evolution of Boko Haram, a Nigerian jihadist organization operating since March 2015 under the banner of Islamic State. The key changes in the ideology, tactics, and goals of Boko Haram have been identified providing in-depth insight into how and why the organization has evolved. The evolution of jihadist activity of Boko Haram included at least two dimensions: firstly – the extreme radicalization of paramilitary struggle manifested in the massacres of civilians in rural areas; and secondly – the feminization of jihadist activity with special regard to the involuntary participation of young women in suicide bombings. The analysis of the facts discussed in the article is based on one of the qualitative scientific methods, namely case study. The main reason to apply this method is the need to investigate the above-mentioned changes in the activity of Islamic terrorists within the time limits indicated in the title of the article.Item Born in the Ashes: Nuclear Uncertainties ‘Increasing’ Strategic Stability(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Sinovets, Polina; Melnyk, TetianaThe article explores the challenges that strategic stability is facing under the new nuclear world order. These are conceptual deviations from Cold War-framed deterrence theory, technological breakthroughs and critical transformations of states’ nuclear postures. Contrary to the existing publications on this issue, we claim that strategic stability will continue under the new nuclear order and might even be strengthened by the complex combination of security challenges, given the growing impossibility to de-escalate war once it breaks out.Item Decentralization vs Centralization: Scenarios of Regional Development of Ukraine in the Context of Internal Stability Establishment(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Uzun, Yuliia; Koch, SvetlanaThe work aims to analyze scenarios for the development of regional policy in Ukraine in conditions of decentralization and centralization trends confrontation in the country. The main problem is the establishment of structural completeness of the decentralization reform in Ukraine, which should involve the implementation of administrative-territorial, budgetary and political decentralization. An important task is also to determine the effectiveness of devolution, delegation, deconcentration, deregulation, and divestment, which are manifestations of the decentralization process and collectively determine the quality of reform. Based on the methodology of system analysis and the concept of “balance of relations,” as well as using a historical and comparative method in investigating the improvement of approaches to leading public policy, and a structural-functional method for analysis of territorial-political system as a decentralized and multi-level, the paper proposes an analysis of the balance of inter-level relations in the country, the effectiveness of reforms, decentralization and trends for further development. The work indicates that since 2014, administrative and territorial optimization and enlargement of communities have become the main result of the decentralization reform. The discussion of political decentralization remains extremely disturbing and is blocked as “separatism,” as well as attempts to resolve the conflict in the Donbas by political means through the adoption of the Steinmeier Formula are demurred as “capitulation.” The economic crisis, which coincided with the pandemic, can aggravate the negative perception of reform, the development of which remains possible within the framework of three development scenarios: “Euro-optimistic,” “inertial” and “blocking.”Item Energy Security of the Black Sea Region: Geostrategy and Geoenergy Measurement(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Grishin, Oleg; Todorova, Ralitsa; Tolochko, AleksandrThe purpose of the article is the analysis of the state of energy security in the states of the Black Sea region in terms of the geopolitics and geostrategies of different regional and international political forces. Energy security is interpreted as the provision of steady energy supply from different types and sources (diversification) and energy market stability. Energy security analysts have always emphasized the importance of energy and energy policies, but too often focused solely on the utilization of resources as an element of political power. The problem of energy and its security is often viewed as vague, misunderstood or unsolvable, with countries hostage to threats with hazardous consequences. A quality selection of analytical and statistical resources has been made to identify energy security problems, such as the growing dependence of most advanced industrial countries on oil and gas supplies, and increasing demand from developing economies for fuel. The objectives of the study are based on the notion of the regional division between the states of the Black Sea basin. The results of the study are founded on the analysis of the operations of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization and the geostrategic and geopolitics interests of the major players in the Black Sea region in the context of their energy security. The article is concluded with the suggestion of a potential solution to the problem of uneven geographic distribution of energy resources such as oil and gas on the political map of the world. The political instruments for influencing energy security in the EU, NATO, USA, Russia and Turkey are analyzed in the article. Recommendations for reducing potential conflicts in the Black Sea region and minimizing the impact on the energy security of the states involved by providing a steady energy supply are given.Item EU-Africa Relations: Towards a New Comprehensive Strategy With Africa. Between a Rock and a Hard Place(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Forysiński, Wojciech; Emmanuel, AchiriThe European Union has a long history of relations with Africa and Africa has always been a strategic partner for the European Union. Today, however, the European Union’s relations with Africa are at a crossroads and the partnership needs to undergo a profound and rapid change. In order to properly investigate this research problem and to address its research questions concerning the future of the EU-Africa partnership, it is demonstrated that the time has come for change and redefinition of the partnership. Therefore, the overall aim of the article is to provide an insight into the EU’s new partnership with Africa, to explore its complex, fragmented nature and scope, actors, legal bases, constitutive elements and different ways both sides are going to present the new agreement to their respective constituencies. The way this research is pursued combines a number of methods. It involves textual analysis of primary sources – the instruments regulating the EU’s relations with Africa, secondary sources, documentary analysis as well as comparative, contextual and historical analysis. The complexities facing the EU and its African partners encourage curiosity and reflection about the new partnership. The article strongly emphasizes that the EU-Africa partnership does not stand still. It is a process of ever closer partnership. It has evolved from a relatively limited scale into a comprehensive system of normative instruments and institutions. And it has bifurcated into EU-ACP and EU-AU partnerships and today both partnerships are being re-negotiated. The likelihood of the negotiations being completed successfully, optimistically, by the end of 2020, remains open. It is our overall conclusion and prediction that the EU-Africa partnership will be enhanced and move a step closer to an integrated, comprehensive partnership, an effective framework for EU-AU relations.Item Feminization of the Police from the Perspective of Comprehensive Risk Minimization(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Magiera, MaciejNowadays, the Police have a significant impact on the security and public order in Poland having actually become a litmus test of how the authorities approach the general public. Furthermore, Polish society is developing the characteristics of risk society and information society, which stimulates a special interest of citizens and the mass media in all the activities of uniformed institutions. Their attitude to current political events is often assessed and their effectiveness criticized. Therefore, the impact of contemporary modernization processes on the Police, including feminization, is a worthwhile task. For this purpose, extremely useful have been research methods, such as case studies, comparative analysis and system analysis.Item Inevitable War, US Decline or Business as Usual? Narratives on China’s Ascension to Power Among American Academia(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Paszak, PawełThis article aims to analyse prevalent narratives on China’s rise among American academia. The attribution of a scholar to a given narrative depends on how their ideas and arguments resonate with three pivotal questions: 1) what is the current balance of power between the US and China?; 2) which variables and determinants have the greatest impact on the trajectory of Sino-American relations?; 3) what are the prospects of China’s rise?. The author identifies three core narratives: 1) pessimistic which acknowledges deteriorating position of the West and an-ticipation of a conflictual character of future relations between China and the US; 2) a balanced view that recognizes a relative decline of the US, but also assumes that China’s re-emergence has apparent limitations. Potential hegemonic war is both probable and avoidable either through deeper engagement or different forms of balancing; 3) an optimistic narrative which stresses internal and external barriers to China’s development that preclude its potential rise to global leadership or the preponderance of American power which is likely to endure in coming dec-ades. The Author adopts constructivist approach and employs methods of critical discourse analysis and categorization.Item Institutional Mechanism to Ensure National Security in the Information Space of the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Bondarenko, Sergii; Nagornyak, Tetyana; Polovyi, MykolaThe paper is devoted to an analysis of the institutional mechanisms that ensure national security in the information space of several leading countries – the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation. It is stated that institutional mechanisms that ensure national security in the information space of the leading countries all have a similar structure. The main components of these mechanisms involve public authorities (state leaders – president or prime minister, government, ministries, and agencies), local government bodies, civil society institutions, the academic community, business community, and the media. The gradual expansion of the system of institutions that ensure national security in the information space and increase in their powers occurs in all these states. The analysis also demonstrates the paradigm shifts in the development and implementation of US and UK information policy in the context of modern nonlinear processes. Paradigmatic shifts are currently being reoriented towards the interests and needs of target audiences, diversification of channels and mechanisms of the distribution of meaning (strategic narratives) in the information space, from vertical to horizontal interaction with internal and external audiences. Emphases are shifting to the involvement of a wide range of institutions and other stakeholders in the implementation of information policy and delegation of powers from the center to the periphery, while preserving the main parameters of the policy established by state structures.Item Iran, Terrorism, and ISIS. Radosław Fiedler’s Interview with Bruce Hoffman(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Fiedler, RadosławInterviewItem Political Identity as a Security Factor of Ukrainian Statehood(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Prymush, Mykola; Lavrynenko, HannaIn the article, the authors analyze the formation of the political identity of citizens of Ukraine as a security factor of Ukrainian statehood. It is noted that, in addition to political identity, there are many other identities, that are presented in the form of a matrix, the components of which continuously interact with, complement and influence each other. In terms of methodology, the process of forming political identity is considered from the standpoint of symbolic interactionism, where the emphasis is placed on political interaction. In addition, in order to objectively assess the effectiveness of the formation of political identity and potential negative consequences in the form of a crisis of statehood, the mechanism for transforming a situational identity into a basic political identity is considered from the standpoint of post-structuralism. The study identifies and formulates criteria for constructing this basic type of political identity, the prerequisites for their formation and correlation with the actual political situation in Ukraine. The multitude of approaches to the study of the formation of political identity is complemented by the consideration of various models of its construction. Fragmental, elite and organic models are considered. Particular attention is paid to the leading role of the state in the process of forming political identity, where the key participants are political elites, the media and civil society. To determine how the perception of the degree of influence of each participant affects the process of political identity formation by the population of Ukraine at different periods of time, with its intermittent outbursts of social activity, the method of factor analysis is used. On the basis of the results of the analysis of the constructed triangular diagrams, two patterns are extracted. According to one, an increase in positive perception and integration into the process of socialization of models of the political identity formation proposed by the political elite is observed in society after each surge in mass protests that leads to a regime change. The other pattern is manifested in the revealed tendentiousness of the influence of the media and political elites on the security level of Ukrainian statehood and the growth of tension in society.Item Political Regime Type and Regional Cooperation – a Case Study of Arab States(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Grabowski, WojciechThe purpose of the article is to show how the type of political system (authoritarian regime) influences the shape of regionalism in the Middle East and to what extent this political system determines the features of cooperation between Arab states. To this end, a hypothesis was put forward according to which the authoritarian political system is a key obstacle to the successful integration and unification of the Middle East. Middle Eastern regionalism serves to protect and legitimize the political power of authoritarian leaders, whereas in Europe it guides to peace, stabilization and development. Authoritarian regionalism tends to reduce democratic ambitions and maintain the authoritarian status quo. In order to verify the hypothesis, the following research questions were posed. First, how is the type of political system related to successful integration? Second, can autocracies work effectively together? To verify the hypothesis and answer the research questions, the author referred to the theories of realism, constructivism, neo-functionalism and the typology of political systems to show that there is no single theory that could fully explain the processes in international relations. The conclusion of this article is that regional organizations created by authoritarian states are only symbolic and instrumental in nature and are oriented towards internal policy (the survival of the regime) rather than regional cooperation.Item Right to Privacy and State Policy on Cyber Security. Necessity or Threat from the State(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Maciejewski, RobertIn the era of extremely rapid technological development, the state is directing particular interest towards security in cyberspace and cyber security is becoming a dominant value in its policy. Such a policy may cause a number of negative consequences, such as the willingness to introduce legal regulations that may limit civil rights and freedoms, and in the next stage may lead to violence. As a result, their implementation causes excessive, and often unauthorized, interference of public authorities in the sphere of citizens’ privacy. It should also be stressed that the global nature of the Internet means that mechanisms based on territoriality in a rather limited way ensure effective protection of individual rights against violations by public authorities in cyberspace. In addition to significant physical damage and direct financial losses, the mere likelihood of future cyber threats may cause social distrust and unwillingness to work with new technologies.Item Russia’s Exogenous Factor in the Donbass Conflict(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Ryabinin, YevgenyThe hypothesis of this research is that Russia has been imposing its influence on Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Before the political and military crisis in 2013, it was an indirect influence, whereas since 2014 it has been a direct impact in many spheres. It is necessary to underline that Ukraine has always been split into two parts in terms of foreign policy priorities, language, religion, and culture. This fact was mentioned by Samuel Huntington, who predicted an intense crisis in bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine in his work Clash of Civilizations. There were two parties in Ukraine that were widely supported in South-Eastern Ukraine, namely the Party of Regions and the Communist Party. The former never spoke about the integration of Ukraine as part of Russian integrational projects because its politicians were afraid of aggressive Russian capital. So they only used pro-Russian rhetoric to win elections. The Communist Party openly backed integration with Russia, but didn’t get enough support as for this idea. It is also demonstrated that there were no parties that were backed financially by Russia, because the parties that offered a kind of a union with Russia never got any seats in the parliament. Since 2014, Russia has been imposing its influence on Ukraine in various spheres, such as economics, politics, diplomacy, the military sphere, etc. Having signed two cease-fire agreements, Russia and Ukraine have failed to apply them and the crisis continues to this day.Item Sanctions, Accommodation, and Defiance. A Long Track of US Sanctions Targeted at Iran. Radosław Fiedler’s Interview with Richard Nephe(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Fiedler, RadosławInterviewItem Saudi Arabia as a Regional Power and an Absolute Monarchy Undergoing Reforms. Vision 2030 – the Perspective of the End of The Second Decade of the 21st Century(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Czornik, KatarzynaThe research objective of this paper is an analysis of the determining factors which allow Saudi Arabia at the end of the second decade of the 21st century to hold the position of a regional power and to maintain it at least in the medium-term perspective. This paper also aims at an analysis of the potential effectiveness of the reforms which have been implemented by the authorities in Riyadh in order to build a new, modified image of the feudal monarchy – Saudi Arabia as an enlightened (but permanently absolute) monarchy undergoing reforms. The hypothesis formed in this paper is as follows: Saudi Arabia at the end of the second decade of the 21st century is a regional power and an absolute monarchy undergoing reforms, which intends to build a new, positive and friendly image of the kingdom by way of reforms introduced in the economic, political and social spheres. The reforms, however, actually take place only at the economic level, which results from the fact that they do not undermine the foundations of the sharia law and the doctrine of Wahhabism. In the political and social spheres the reforms are just a façade. The methods used in this paper include: content analysis, systemic analysis and comparative method. The findings: the hypothesis posed above has been verified positively. Saudi Arabia at the end of the second decade of the 21st century is a regional power and an absolute monarchy undergoing reforms, which intends to build a new, positive and friendly image of the kingdom in the international community through introduction of reforms. The reforms undertaken within the framework of the Vision 2030 initiative are revolutionary, but actually they take place only in the economic sphere. However, in the political and social spheres – especially as regards granting further privileges and rights to Saudi women – although they are extremely important and even of breakthrough character and the very fact of their existence should be recognised, in reality they are only a façade and their implementation meets resistance not only from a part of political elites and radical clergy but also from the society itself, which is not mentally prepared for such changes.Item Scenarios for the Development of the Migration Problem in Russia(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Stepanov, Sergey; Ivanova, EkaterinaThe article is devoted to the impact of migration processes on public opinion and possible solutions to the migration problem in modern Russia. An analysis and comparison of the results of sociological surveys conducted by various sociological agencies over the past five years has made it possible to identify the most vulnerable points in interethnic relations. Speaking about the future prospects of Russian migration policy, the authors offer scenarios for the development of the migration problem in Russia. To study the experience of the organization, as well as to determine the specific features of the functioning of the migration process, comparative methods are used to identify the main ways of regulating the migration policy in Russia and to compare this practice with international experience. The generalization method is also used, allowing the authors to identify common properties and characteristics of the objects of study by moving from a particular or less general concept and judgment to a more general concept or judgment within the framework of this study. The methods of induction and deduction are widely used in academic research. Thanks to these methods, researchers have the opportunity to examine certain processes in detail, build logical relationships and sequences, and identify patterns. The use of induction made it possible to derive general propositions from a series of particular statements and isolated facts based on data from past experience.Item Securitization of Memory: a Theoretical Framework to Study the Latvian Case(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Pakhomenko, Sergii; Sarajeva, OlgaThe article suggests and argues a theoretical framework for studying a particular case of memory securitization. It is based on the constructivist perception of security that is systematically framed in the studies of representatives of the Copenhagen School, who consider security as a socially constructed phenomenon and define identity protection to be one of its primary goals. Pursuant to this approach, the article presents a correlation between memory and security in at least three aspects. In the first instance, similar to security, collective memory is socially determined. In the second instance, collective memory lies at the core of various forms of identity, including national identity. In the third instance, collective memory is not only an object of protection but also a resource, which is used by securitization actors for threat identification, enemy image modeling as well as for defining the means of protection. The Latvian case is applied for setting the theoretical framework of the memory securitization model. In future, it might be used to study specific juridical and political mechanisms of memory securitization in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The authors perceive the securitization of memory as a diverse complex of measures aimed at establishing and setting a certain historical narrative, as well as convincing society to be actively loyal to it. Accordingly, the policy of memory is defined as a mechanism for putting securitization in practice. The initial conditions for understanding this process in Latvia are the post-communist transition, ethnocultural divisions of the society, and the external factor represented by Russia, that promotes its historical narratives. In one respect, R. Brubaker’s concept of the “nationalized” state is taken as a theoretical model of the politics of memory in Latvia. According to this concept, the official narrative of post-communist countries has been set as a nation-oriented one. On the other hand, the concept of the memory regime developed by M. Bernhard and J. Kubik is also considered. As per their theory, the memory regime in Latvia can be described as being divided into the official and alternative narrative of counter-memory, which is based on the Soviet legacy.Item Selling Insecurity via Twitter: Ukrainian President’s Posts and Modern Political Discourse(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Steblyna, NataliiaIn modern political discourse, the topics of foreign aggression and insecurity are strongly influencing voter perceptions. In the unpredictable and polarizing environment of Twitter, references to crisis events may be used without justification. The character of tweeting during the peak phase of a crisis may differ, and it is possible to identify such differences analyzingthe tweets. To compare the pre-election period with the period of foreign aggression, and to study the manner of tweeting of a political leader, the Twitter account of the fifth Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko was observed between November 2018 (Azov crisis) and July 2019 (early presidential election). A total of 2,519 tweets were content-analyzed (the character of references to Russian aggression, newsbreaks, intensity, language justification were studied). Tweeting during the Azov crisis was an everyday activity with a large number of tweets over a long period. Pre-election tweeting included commenting on specially created events (commemorations, celebrations) with a large number of mentions for short periods of time and constant online presence with a small number of tweets posted even without a special occasion. Approximately one out of three tweets was written without reference to any newsbreak. Among the most popular newsbreaks, traditional subjects dominated (meetings, signings of laws etc.). Thus, the term “aggression” was mainly exploited during specially created events after the crisis. Additionally, the stylistic features (authentic language, amateurism, unpredictability, breaking rules, incivility and impoliteness) that are widespread across social networks arenot typical of Poroshenko. A “polarization” of the political discourse, however, emerges. It is possible to observe it especially before the second round of elections, when the polls were predicting victory to Poroshenko’s opponent.