Przegląd Strategiczny, 2018, nr 11
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Item A Strategic Review of the Security of European Countries(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Magiera, Maciej; Donaj, ŁukaszThis paper combines a review of the strategic security of European countries in 2017, and the creation - on the basis of the international scenario method - of short-, medium- and longterm forecasts. The authors address both the nature of armed conflicts (including the so-called ‘frozen conflicts’) and the escalation of terrorist acts. Also, the issue of the immigration crisis has been highlighted as causing both the rise of radical public sentiments and being a ‘source’ of the smuggling of people (including terrorists) and goods (including weapons which are later used in attacks).Item A Tale of Two Countries: Nat ion Building and Security Challenges in Myanmar and Indonesia(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Russell, MartinFor most of the former European colonies of South and Southeast Asia, the end of the Second World War was also the beginning of the end of colonial rule. With independence came the challenge of unifying disparate ethnic, religious and linguistic communities into cohesive nations - a challenge that some countries met more successfully than others. The price of failure could be high - hundreds of thousands were killed, and many millions displaced in 1947, as inter-communal conflicts tore British India apart. Indonesia declared independence in 1945 (a declaration not recognised by the country’s Dutch colonial rulers until 1949), while Burma (as Myanmar was then known) was granted independence by Britain in 1948. Both countries were able to avoid tragedies on the scale of the Indian Partition. Nevertheless, nation-building has been a difficult and as yet uncompleted process, the source of continuing challenges to national security. This article looks at the situation in the two countries, traces the origins of some of the current problems, and attempts to explain why Indonesia has generally been more successful in this respect than Myanmar, despite the similarities in the initial situations of the two countries.Item Badanie polityki zagranicznej państwa, Edward Haliżak (ed.), Rambler, Warszawa 2018, 590 pp, ISBN: 978-83-62751-64-8.(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Osiewicz, PrzemysławItem Brics and New Multilateral Development Banks: Towards Recalibration of Global Economic Governance(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Rewizorski, MarekThis article addresses selected issues enmeshed into global economic governance debate. It focus¬es on a role of international institutions in transforming world order, in particular the rise of emerging powers increasingly categorised or acronymised as BRICS, their resources, power and vested interests. The main narrative brings close the phenomenon of the new reshuffling in multilateral development banking (MDB). The New Development Bank (NDB), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as ‘products’ of the third wave of MDB emergence, fit well into the proc¬ess coined as ‘the recalibration of the world economy.’ It is expressed by shift of the centre of glo¬bal economic gravity towards non-western actors and can be explained by arguments derived from game theory. They elucidate exit - voice nexus, where the cost of exit for both organisation leaders (Western donors) and members (EMDCs, BRICS) is fragmented multilateralism and where the cost of voice is decreasing capacity to influence principles and procedures of multilateral develop¬ment lending. The article in the first section starts with overview of three waves of multilateral development banking, where the most recent of them is partially explained using game theory argument. Second section starts from accentuating common characteristics of NDB and AIIB and then examines the differences between NDB and AIIB - entities which emerged during the third wave. The final section provides summaries and conclusions.Item British Scientific Journals in the Area of International Relations – 2017 Review(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Jędrowiak, PatrykThe text constitutes a review of articles published in 2017 on the pages of British academic journals dealing with international relations. The author has selected texts from issues of: “European Political Science Review”, “The British Journal of Politics and International Relations”, “Politics”, “Cambridge Review of International Relations” and “Political Studies.” The pre¬sented articles have been analyzed in the context of thematic groups such as: Brexit, elections, trust in politics, Middle East issues and others.Item Challenges and Opportunities for the EU Digital Single Market, Brussels, 23 April, 2018(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Morozowski, TomaszItem Counter-Terrorist Security: the Example of the Special Powers of the Polish Special Services in the Field of Surveillance of Foreign Nationals(2018) Rosicki, RemigiuszThe material scope of the analysis presented in this paper refers to special powers held by the Polish special services with respect to the surveillance of foreign nationals in connection with terrorist threats and terrorist offenses. This paper connects the issue of anti-terrorist measures with the assessment of the effectiveness of the Polish special services and with the assessment of potential social costs, which are related to the increase in the powers held by these services in the field of surveillance of Polish citizens and foreign nationals. The analysis of the powers of the special services focuses on the powers of one of the counterintelligence services, i.e. the Internal Security Agency (Polish: ABW). The purpose of this paper is to indicate the consequences of the introduction of legal changes concerning the powers held by the special services in the scope of applying particular types of surveillance activities (operational-and-intelligence activities). It poses the following research questions: (1) To what extent can mechanisms in Polish law influence the effectiveness of combating terrorism by the Polish special services? (2) To what extent can mechanisms in Polish law in the field of combating terrorism violate the rights and freedoms of Polish citizens and foreign nationals? In order to answer the research questions, the activities and powers of Polish special services were analyzed from a legal and institutional point of view. On the other hand, to analyze legal regulations related to surveillance, the author applied a dogmatic and doctrinal interpretation and a pro-constitutional interpretation of the provisions of criminal law.Item Current Challenges for the Application of the Rule of Law in European States, Poznań, 12–13 April, 2018(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Bainczyk, MagdalenaItem DESTABILIZATION OF THE INTERNAL SITUATION AS ONE OF THE MAIN THREATS TO THE SECURITY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Kusa, NataliaFor the first time internal security has been clearly articulated in Russian National Security Strategy of December 2015. That is when the so-called colour revolutions and “radical social groups which use nationalist and extremist religious ideologies, foreign and international nongovernmental organisations, as well as private citizens who act against the Russian territorial integrity and destabilise political processes” have been deemed the most significant challenges to the Russian security, together with the North Atlantic Alliance and the United States of America. As a response to such defined threats, Russian legislation introduced solutions that attempt to prevent the danger. The aim of this article is to answer the question, whether Russian authori¬ties treat the destabilisation of internal situation as one of the main challenges to the Russian security, and if yes, what are the indications of that? Does Russian legislation (especially from the last few years), actions of the Russian authorities and Russian subject literature, include evidence confirming this hypothesis?Item Europe Within the World of Regionalisms(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Bach, Daniel C.The surge of diversified forms of regionalism and regional integration within the past few decades has stimulated the reappraisal of the conceptual tools traditionally designed to benchmark and monitor region-building processes across the world. More recently, the Brexit negotiations have become a reminder that the EU remains an unfolding experience. This article argues that the study of African regionalisms constitutes a timely invitation to revisit the experience of the EU and its contribution to the world of regionalisms. After a brief survey of the classic definition of the region, we will discuss the ongoing relevance of European integration and the implications of the analytical distinction between regionalism, regionalisation and regional integration, before drawing from the study of Africa five threads which set the basis for a comparative study of regions and regionalisms beyond the classic emphasis on the EU or the world of regions.Item EUROPEAN SECURITY ISSUES AS SEEN BY POLISH PARLIAMENTARIANS(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Malinowski, Krzysztof; Nowosielski, MichałThe article attempts to explore the views of the Polish parliamentarians on threats to the security of Europe and the EU and their implications for Poland and its relations with Germany in the context of the Ukrainian conflict, NATO transformations, divergent energy interests and the refugee crisis. We follow the hypothesis, that the opinions on the threats and conflicts in the neighborhood of Europe were consistent across party lines in Europe’s neighborhood and they suggest a strong consensus on the necessity to strengthen the cooperation in NATO. The article examines the responses of members of the Polish parliament (members of parliamentary committees on foreign and European affairs and security, members of the Polish-German parliamentary group) and all Polish members of the European Parliament to a dual survey carried out in 2015 and 2016. The questionnaire was completed by 22 respondents in the first and 21 respondents in the second survey. The respondents represented diverse political parties (Civic Platform, Law & Justice, Democratic Left Alliance, Polish People’s Party).Item GREENLAND - FROM AUTONOMY TO (IN)DEPENDENCE(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Brańka, TomaszThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the process of development of Greenland’s autonomy, especially vis-à-vis the Act on Greenland Self-Government of 2009, which ensures that decisions on the future status of the island will be made by the people of Greenland. Compared to other entities, Greenland is the only Arctic territory which can feasibly gain independence. This study also discusses the relations between Denmark and Greenland in terms of post-colonial relations between the former metropolis/colonizer and the island, outlining also the discourse on independence in Greenland. The hypothesis posed in the paper is that the proceeds from mineral extraction will not enable Greenland to become economically independent and abandon Danish subsidies, and that the process of gaining sovereignty might result in Greenland becoming dependent on external powers which will have a considerable impact on social relations on the island. This means that the matter under negotiation is not so much whether or not Greenland has the right to declare independence, but rather if it should take this step.Item Internal Factors and its Impact on Iranian Foreign Policy(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Fiedler, RadosławThe Islamic Republic of Iran has a political structure with co-shared and competitive activity in the field of foreign policy. There are two power centres the president and the supreme leader. Iranian political elite is composed of factions of the conservatives, moderates, pragmatists, and reformers. Each faction has influence on the course of Iranian foreign policy. The dominant faction, conservatives, has caused isolation and imposition of severe sanctions on Iran during Ahmadinejad’s presidency Although domestic sources of foreign policy reveals competition among different factions there is consensus in principal goals of Iranian foreign policy.Item Iran’s Engagement in Syrian Conflic t. Causes and Consequences(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Ożarowski, RafałSince the 2011, Iran is deeply engaged in Syrian war in order to support and keep President Bashar al-Assad in power. Firstly, Iran started with political and diplomatic support and later turned into military and economic assistance. At the moment, it is believed that Syria is financially sustained by Iran. The main reason that Iran has determined for wide-scale engagement was the existential need for maintaining and then expanding its own regional power influences in the Middle East. If Syrian regime collapsed, Iran would be dealt with a big dilemma and it would loss Syria as a key military and political ally. Thus, Iran would have cut off his transit route to supply weapons to Lebanon for Hezbollah, as these transports still go across Syrian territory. It would surely diminish the Iranian position in the Middle East. Preventing such a case, Iran has been determined to engage in the Syrian conflict to a great extent, which, as a consequence, is charged with heavy costs. Although there is no exact data of Iran’s expenses for the Syrian War, it is supposed that this is in the range of 6 billion USD to 35 billion USD. At the moment, it can be said that engagement in Syrian war was beneficial for Iran, mainly in political sphere, yet the full consequences of this involvement will only be known in many months.Item Is this the Collapse of Islamic State? The Evolution of the Terrorist Threat in the Mi ddle East in 2017(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Wejkszner, ArturThe main aim of this article is to present an evolution of the terrorism threat in the Middle East in 2016. For this purpose, firstly, the essence and determinants of the contemporary terrorism threat have been analyzed. Some main Middle East terrorist organizations, actively operating in this area, have also been indicated. Secondly, the chronology and the most important terror¬ism trends in the region have been presented. A special attention has been paid to consequences of the fall of the Islamic State. And last but not least some predictive scenarios regarding the development of above phenomenon in 2017 and beyond have been pointed out.Item National Media as a Projection of a Devastating Effect of External Influences(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Danylenko, Serhiy; Nesteriak, Yuliia; Grynchuk, MarynaThis article is devoted to the research of media space of several countries in the Western Balkans and the Baltics, where we can observe the emergence and effective use of dubious media, in order to promote aggressive narratives, identified as a destructive influence of the Russian Federation. It is considered as the threat to the national security of these states. The informa-tion tools of a destabilizing nature include diplomatic, intelligence, and energy tools. The me-dia component of information influence has become the central object of research. It is stated that the destructive use of dubious national media, as well as their replenishment, takes place systematically and efficiently in those areas, where Russia’s state interests are focused on the restoration of its domination. On this basis we can conclude that dubious media is used within Russia’s hybrid aggression in relation to Ukraine, where it is seen as a mean of animating the externally initiated destabilizing political influences. However, Russia will be forced to spend more and more resources (financial, organizational and informational) on such operations, and their effectiveness will fall as local governments, society and citizens will learn how to recognize the threats, retransmitted by dubious media, public associations, populist politicians or radicals.Item ON THE NATURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Baranowski, PiotrAuthor discussed various theoretical difficulties connected with the concept and dynamics of international system. He claims that many misunderstandings in political science, including inaccurate predictions as well as real-time-analysis, are caused by lack of precise theory of international systems within international relations as well as failure to adapt some concepts regarding systems from General System Theory, Cybernetics, Chaos Theory and Catastrophy Theory (or paradigm of complexity as a whole), that seem to be used with success in other disciplines like biology or physics. The author proposes five essential dimensions where structure of the system could be successfully measured. He argues that systemic approach based on various theories concerning complexity can lead to resolving some essential questions concerning the nature of the system with the most important one concerning mechanisms at various levels of the system, need to be answered.Item Polish Strategic Analyses – Review of 2017 Publications(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Wiśniewski, RafałThe text is a review of selected articles from leading Polish academic journals dealing with the topic of international security. It aims to present the most important topics of current debate taking place in Polish strategic studies.Item PRETEXTS AS THE MOTIVES FOR TRIGGERING ARMED CONFLICTS AND STATES PARTICIPATION(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Malendowski, WłodzimierzThe causes of armed conflicts are a subject of constant interest to the social sciences. This has resulted in many theories and findings regarding the selection of different criteria in determining conflict-triggering factors. In international practice, states decide to declare war citing reasons connected with the state or vital national interests. Sometimes, the true motivations for the use of force are hidden. The history of armed conflicts includes many cases of using contrived pretexts or outright lies to start a war. External circumstances which were beyond the control of the state starting the war and which did not depend on the state’s will and actions have been used as pretexts. Some of the pretexts, however, were deliberately fabricated to justify and explain military operations. States taking advantage of pretexts to use force can be observed from the time of the Trojan War to the attack on Iraq in 2003. Among the countries using pretexts to start a war, the superpowers occupy the leading position – they claim higher purposes, despite the fact that there are no objective criteria upon which to establish their superiority over the conventions of morality and international law.Item SIPRI Yearbook 2017(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2018) Magiera, MaciejThe study is dedicated to the most important trends confirmed by current knowledge in the SIPRI Yearbook 2017. SIPRI annually issues a study which shows a comprehensive picture of the activity of international actors in terms of world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, armed conflicts and multilateral peace operations, as well as the promotion of security and development.