Przegląd Strategiczny, 2022, nr 15

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Abraham Accords Against the Backdrop of the Middle East Political Mosaic
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Kosman, Michał M.
In the second decade of the 21st century, many processes destabilized regional security in the Middle East. These include, first of all, the Arab Spring and the civil war in Syria, in which Russia, the United States, a number of regional powers and many non-state actors were involved. Iran’s nuclear ambitions turned out to be another major challenge, especially after the US withdrew from the JCPOA agreement in 2018. The pro-Israel stance of President Donald Trump’s administration has also strongly influenced the Middle East mosaic of interests. Under these circumstances, in 2020, Israel’s agreements with several Arab states, known as the Abraham Accords, were concluded. The aim of the article is to describe these agreements, analyze their causes and outline their consequences. The author adopted the hypothesis that the Abraham Accords constitute a significant step towards strengthening the acceptance of Arab states for Israel and its strategic interests. In the preparation of the text, the method of document and literature analysis was used primarily.
Cuba and Poland: an Outline of Comparative Analysis of Totalitarian Regimes
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Bäcker, Roman
The aim of the article is to find the similarities and differences between Poland and Cuba by comparing them totalitarian regimes. The research problem consisting in determining the importance of exogenous and endogenous factors favoring the regime or disintegrate it. In this case, the method of desk research is appropriate. The comparison was made using the same and operationalized criteria (hegemony or domination of the party-state apparatus, the intensity of political gnosis, and the scope and extent political mobilization) based on Juan Linz’s modified concept of totalitarianism. At the beginning of the 1960s, in Cuba, the uncivil society had a hegemonic position. In the 21st century, its status changed from hegemonic to dominant, closely linked with the totalitarian party-state apparatus. The political regime slowly evolved from strong to weak totalitarianism. In post-war Poland, the political regime evolved from strong to weak totalitarianism, to become authoritarian after 1980 behind the façade of an inoperable party-state apparatus, and in 1989 it collapsed. In both cases, exogenous factors were of much less importance than endogenous ones.
Fake News and Content Manipulation Under Russian Information Aggression
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Kornieiev, Vitalii; Ryabichev, Vyacheslav; Glushkova, Tetiana
The article explores the information aggression of Russian mass media in the hybrid war against Ukraine by analyzing cases when Russian media spread distorted or fake information in their coverage of the annexation of Crimea, the military conflict in Donbas, and political events inside and outside Ukraine. The research employs content and comparative analyses to study the structure of fake news as well as methods to use and disseminate the news among readers. In particular, attention is paid to manipulation technologies in social media. The article examines the concept of hybrid war that Russia managed to actualize during its occupation of Crimea and a part of Eastern Ukraine, its methods to expand into external information space during the Ukrainian presidential election and its increasing tension in relations with the United States and Iran. The results of the research consist of the analysis of techniques used in Russian mass media texts to spread fake news and influence audiences; the article also puts forward a classification of fake news as well as offers recommendations on ways to counteract disinformation in crisis communication. It is also argued that Russia is waging the war not only in the content environment of Ukraine but also that of many other countries. It is urgent that various forms and methods of Russian influence on the public opinion, its attempts to shape pro-Russian views in the democratic Western world, imposition of one-sided interpretation of international treaties should be resisted by teaching media literacy to audiences as well as by granting them with transparency and unimpeded access to original information sources.
From Rhetoric to Posture: a Comparative Study of George W. Bush, Barack H. Obama and Donald J. Trump’s Stances Towards DPRK Nuclear Issue
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Al Hashimi, Shurooq
This article explores the postures of the last three former US presidents towards North Korean nuclear issue. The study applies Fairclough’s critical discourse analysis (CDA) model as a new approach to examine this topic. By analyzing 17 speech corpuses, this study sheds light on the foreign policy adapted G. W. Bush, Obama, and Trump to address North Korea Nuclear issue. Theoretically, the study uses both Waltz’s foreign policy analysis model and Aristotle modes of persuasion to analyze the findings. It also clarifies the original foundations of each presidents’ foreign policy based on the four American IR school of thoughts. Results indicate that the legacy of the Cold War continues to shape and influence the stances of US presidents toward DPRK, despite the differences in their rhetorical and political strategies. While this study focuses individually on presidents as the main unit of analysis, future studies can further expand the use of CDA analysis to examine the stances of other key decision makers in the presidents’ administration to fully understand the relation between discourses and power structure.
From Speech Acts to Extraordinary Measures - Securitization and Hybrid Warfare in Iran-Israel Relations
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Grabowski, Wojciech
The purpose of this article is to investigate Iranian-Israeli relations, which are based on hate speech and hybrid warfare, but can actually be reduced to a struggle for power and domination. In order to legitimize their military actions against an enemy state, both Iran and Israel must securitize the threat, which means they must convince the public that the opposing state poses an existential threat. Hate speech and aggressive rhetoric are used by both countries and represent a subjective perception of a threat, as well as a legitimizing tool to justify extraordinary measures to counter the threats. Appealing to fears and threats and the method of creating an enemy are well-known political strategies that ensure the legitimacy of power.
Historical Development of Cybersecurity Studies: A Literature Review and Its Place in Security Studies
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Tarhan, Kamil
This study discusses the formation and development of cybersecurity studies since the creation of the Internet. Although the origin of cybersecurity studies dates back to the 1970s, hacking, malicious software, computer intrusions, and espionage attacks that took place in the 1980s led cybersecurity studies to form in the area of computer science. By the 1990s, the Internet began to be used widely, and an increase in the level of attacks in cyberspace began to occur. This period was a major reason for the growth in writing on software and network security. Network security has become a key priority for governments and many industries. Cybersecurity studies have become a priority area in security studies with the increasing complexity of cyber threats towards 2000s. States and some supranational organizations have started to create cybersecurity strategies. The security of critical infrastructure and computer networks has begun to emerge as a high-priority area. It has been observed that the transition from classical security policies to modern security policies, which should be established in the information age, has begun. Cybersecurity studies were taken more seriously after the 2007 Estonian attacks, especially in the 2010s. In this period, the intensity of attacks on critical infrastructures and the occurrence of some physical attacks caused cybersecurity to deepen and become an issue on an international scale. Cybersecurity studies continue to be shaped by being influenced by many different disciplines, regardless of any discipline, with the important discussions and cyber incidents that have taken place in recent years. Therefore, the studies were handled from a multidisciplinary perspective.
Insecurity in the Middle East: Why Do the Reformist Movements Constantly Fail? Towards a New Conceptual Framework
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Dolatabadi, Ali Bagheri; Shafie Seifabadi, Mohsen
Over the last three decades, the Middle East countries have frequently witnessed popular protests against the authoritarian regimes. The question is why these protests never come to a desirable end? Regardless of the role played by foreign actors in perpetuating the authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, it seems that what causes the protests not to be pervasive and the political infrastructures not to collapse is that the protests have not been supported by the people’s majority. The present article argues that such a dearth of support refers to a fundamental cause that we named the fear cycle. This cycle includes the masses’ fear of the regime, fear of the movement’s failure and its dire consequences, and fear of the political system that is supposed to come to power after the overthrow of the incumbent government. The governments have an important role in creating and perpetuating this fear and turning it into a panic.
Japan’s Taiwan Policy in the Xi Jinping Era: Moving Toward Strategic Clarity
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Chen, Yu-Hua
Like the United States, Japan views its relations with Taiwan through a greater China framework. It uses a similar strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan to navigate its relations with China and Taiwan. However, Japan’s recent strong support for Taiwan to counter China’s pressure on the island seems to suggest that Japan’s Taiwan policy is moving away from its old strategic ambiguity toward a new strategic clarity. Why has Japan started to protect Taiwan proactively and directly in recent years? How to explain the transformation of Japan’s policy regarding Taiwan from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity? Drawing upon various primary materials, this article approached those questions from a social constructivism lens. It argues that Japan’s new identity is a critical factor in Japan’s strategic transformation of its Taiwan policy. Japan’s new identity has first taken shape due to the growing challenge from China, and second been accelerated and hardened by the caprices of the United States. It is this new identity and its associated normative expectations that have caused Japan’s foreign behaviour to change fundamentally. This article will detail the process in which how Japan steadily changed its state identity over the years after showing that the existing explanations are unable to properly account for the shift of Japan’s policy toward Taiwan. Some policy implications will be offered in the conclusion section.
Mohammed Bin Salman’s Rising to Power. Chances for Transition in Saudi Arabia?
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Ożarowski, Rafał
The aim of this paper is to present the outline of planned and already implemented social, political and economic changes in the context of gradual transition of power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The main thesis put in this paper relates to Mohammed bin Salman’s leading project – “Vision 2030” which assumed gradual multi-dimensional transition in Saudi Arabia. Many of changes implemented already, including the limitation of clergy’s activity will not bring about quick social-political transition due to long-lasting and deeply rooted alliance between Saudi ruling clan and radical movement of Wahhabis, that determines conservative regime in the country. Basing on the main thesis Author tries to give the answer to research questions correlated with the thesis and touching the issue of possibility for implementation political, economic changes in Saudi Arabia by Mohammed bin Salman. In the paper following research methods has been applied: historical method, which refers to analysis of historical process of shaping and development Saudi monarchy; documentary analysis - relating to governmental project “Vision 2030” particularly; elements of systemic approach in which system is constituted by political regime of Saudi Arabia; elements of statistical method employed in the context of variable economic or social data and elements of predictive referring to the model of Saudi Arabia’s development under the rule of Mohammed bin Salman.
Peculiarities, Models and Problems of Interaction of International Non-Governmental Organisations With Other International Actors in Ensuring Peace and Security
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Kruchinina, Oksana; Dorosh, Lesia; Ilnytska, Uliana
The efficiency and effectiveness of the international non-governmental organisations (INGOs) in ensuring peace and security as relevant and growing only in dynamic interaction and cooperation with other international actors (international governmental organisations, non-governmental actors, and civil society institutions) have been justified. The features, models and problems of interaction of INGOs with other international actors in maintaining peace, stability and security, solving and preventing modern security challenges of the international system have been comprehensively studied. Such interaction and coordination of the efforts of INGOs and other international actors is viewed through the prism of expanding the areas of competence of non-governmental international organisations and increasing their activity in various areas. Some examples of an active involvement of non-governmental organisations in the activities of the UN (and its structures), NATO, OSCE, CoE, EU are given. Challenges of the interaction of governmental and non-governmental sectors in the international arena are analysed. International non-governmental actors, being independent (mostly) of their governments and officials of other international structures, are emphasised to have the opportunity to respond to strategic security challenges quickly and effectively, update public opinion, and mobilise the international community to address security issues at the regional and global levels.
Realism – Forgotten Theory for Peacebuilding
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Baihuzhakava, Alina
The article brings attention to the gap in the research on peacebuilding from the perspective of realist theories. Started by Johan Galtung, the peacebuilding field has been largely influenced by his understanding of peace and violence, as well as by the peace studies discipline itself. An Agenda for Peace turned the theoretical concept into international practice, and the liberal spirit accompanying it imprinted on the research approaches that guide peacebuilding activities. Executed in the form of democratic transformation and statebuilding, peacebuilding operations often did not bring the expected results and called on a lot of criticism. Besides, throughout the decades dominating approaches (liberalism complemented by institutional and critical IR theories) have not been able to explain the continuous unattainability of sustainable peace and exacerbation of violence. A little attention has been given to peacebuilding by the realist theory, which has limited interest in local conflicts. In this aspect, the article aims to discuss how the realist theories have been addressing the topic of peacebuilding so far, analyse what are the main assumptions related to peacebuilding from a realist perspective; and assess if the realist theories can be helpful in resolving the problem of peacebuilding ineffectiveness. The article opens further discussion on whether the realist perspective and its focus on states’ interests, rather than (democratic and liberal) values and institutions, can be used for analysing the problems of the peacebuilding process and can help to better understand situations, where it is ineffective.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy Towards Turkey During and After Arab Uprising: A Defensive Realism Approach
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Kural, Muzaffer; Erdem, Gökhan
The Arab Uprisings in 2011 have led to redistribution of power in the Middle East. It has brought challenges and opportunities for regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. While Turkey has perceived the developments as an opportunity to increase its influence in the region, it has created threat perceptions for Saudi Arabia’s hegemony in the Middle East. Especially, due to Turkey’s rising influence in Egypt and Syria it has been perceived as a second rival, after Iran, by Riyadh. This article argues that due to Turkey’s rising power in Egypt and Syria, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy towards Turkey has been shifting by supporting local actors in Egypt and Syria in order to maintain the status quo. The paper aims to analyze shifts in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy towards Turkey during and post-Arab uprisings in the Middle East in the framework of defensive realism through the regional level of analysis.
Scientific Research in Austrian Security Strategies and Research on Security and Defence
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Szewior, Krzysztof
Official documents of the Austrian government indicate the growing dependence of the economy and society on technical infrastructure, which required continuous research. Austria has developed a national research program to promote its economy, technology and cooperation. It is also intended to support the Austrian defence and civilian economy as a coherent part of the EU’s research, technology and economic structures. This text is based in particular on primary literature, which includes documents of EU institutions, Austrian security and defence strategies, and statements of the Ministry of Defense. This publication attempts to answer the question of how Austria made an effort to integrate security and defence issues with the national research-technology-innovation system (Forschung-Technologie-Innovation, hereinafter FTI), with the specificity of the domestic industry dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper is based on the analysis of documents and scientific interpretation of key EU and Austrian positions. The research aims to analyze and understand the role of research in the concept of (national) security in Austria and to link it with the EU’s security and defence policy. Research and this publication verify the assumption that the security and strategic autonomy of the EU / Member States require integrated solutions (Europeanization process). Going beyond the soft impact toward hard instruments requires a knowledge-based development and synergies of coherent strategies, technologies and research. The EU saw the need for a structured promotion of research and innovation in the field of security and defence. Austria has been developing such research for several years, mainly at the national level and application. The steps taken by Austria demonstrate the will to operate in wider EU (infra) structures and to benefit from financial instruments while supporting and profiting from socio-economic processes.
Terrorism and Jihadism in the Islamic Republic of Iran
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Czulda, Robert
Although from the very beginning of its existence the Islamic Republic of Iran has been regularly accused of supporting international terrorism, including Sunni organizations, this phenomenon is also a significant and growing threat for Tehran itself. In recent years Iran has become a target for the Sunni jihadists, who have even announced that in the near future the Shi’ite regime in Tehran would collapse and the Islamic State would take over. At the same time Iran has to cope with more traditional threats, posed by ethnic separatists – mainly Arabs, Kurds and the Baloch people – as well as by the MEK (People’s Mujahedin of Iran). This paper analyzes main terrorism-related threats to contemporary Iran and to present both their causes and dynamics. The main argument of the paper is that although these challenges are mainly local (provincial), they have a potential to trigger a snowball effects and can weaken already a vulnerable stability of the Islamic Republic even further. Moreover, it is argued that decision-makers in Iran do not solve structural problems, but react with a further securitization. A risk is even higher now, when an increasing number of Iranians have become highly dissatisfied with their living conditions.
The Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy in Syria: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Karaca, Bilal Bahadir; Köksal, Berk
Since 2011, the Syrian Civil War has become an arena of international competition between regional and global powers. As a dominant regional actor, Turkey has important interests in this conflict. However, although great importance is given to civil war factors and power balances at the field level, Turkey’s internal conditions play a role as well as these externalities. Therefore, an analysis of Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria from a local perspective is needed to reveal some negligible dynamics. In this direction, this study aims to analyse Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria, taking into account the interaction between Turkey’s external and internal dynamics within the framework of neoclassical realist theory. Within this scope, we ask “how do Turkish external and internal dynamics explain its foreign policy in Syria?” as the leading search question and conduct our analysis using the explanatory case study method. Based on our findings, we provide a broad perspective on the significant impacts of four main internal factors on Turkish foreign policy, from the start of the Civil War to the most recent “Operation Spring Shield” by the Turkish Army and local Syrian armed groups.
The End of Artic Exceptionalism? New Artic Approach after February 24, 2022
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Brańka, Tomasz
Since the end of the Cold War, the Arctic has often been portrayed as a symbol of model cooperation. Individual states were prepared to cooperate extensively despite disputes in other areas. The Arctic was therefore customarily regarded as an area with little potential for conflict. Cooperation between states that were in strong competition with each other in other regions or areas was so rare that the “Arctic exceptionalism’ was commonly recognized. This article examines updated Arctic strategies of states directly involved in the region. It analyzes the changes over the past few years, which have mostly been a consequence of Russia’s aggression (as early as 2014) and its strong militarization of the region. The article discusses the initiated process of Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO and the consequences of this historic change for the High North. Finally, it analyses decisions taken by a number of Arctic organizations to exclude, freeze, or “pause’ their relations with Russia in consequence of the February 24, 2022 attack on Ukraine. This raises questions about whether the Arctic can be managed without Russia and whether measures adopted can be effective.
The Evolution and Relevance of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) in Shaping the Asylum and Migration Securitization Process in the European Union
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Tomaszewska, Sara
The aim of the article is to analyze the importance of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency in the ongoing process of securitization of asylum and migration in the European Union countries. Therefore, the paper will attempt to answer the following research questions: how has the evolution of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency’s activities contributed to the ongoing securitisation of asylum and migration in the European Union and can all of Frontex’s core tasks be considered securitisation practices? The article also attempts to attribute Frontex’s main tasks to two types of securitisation practices proposed by Thierry Balzacq: (1) traditional activities that have been implemented to address what are largely perceived as security issues; (2) extraordinary activities, not only in the sense of ‘exceptional’ or ‘illegal’ but more broadly in the sense of ‘unusual’ that is, never before used or rarely used in relation to migration and asylum.
The Global Pandemic of Terrorism – Another Mutation of The Terrorist Virus
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Wojciechowski, Sebastian
From the editor
The Policy of Maximum Pressure on Iran. US Policy Objectives and Effects
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Fiedler, Radosław
The main goal of this paper is to examine the Trump administration’s maximum-pressure policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran. The main causes and rationale for withdrawing from the nuclear JCPOA are identified. In addition, the consequences of maximum pressure are addressed, which harm the so far failed JCPOA restoration negotiations. An additional thread in the article is a critical appraisal of the sanctions policy, which for decades has failed to deliver the results expected by the USA, which is an inhibiting factor in a dynamically changing international environment. Moreover, the costs to the US of sanctions pressure on Iran have been identified.
The Politicization of Intellectual Property Rights in the Context of Karabakh
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2022) Muradov, Adalat; Hajiyeva, Nargiz
Until recently, intellectual property law has been kept away from the political realm, as it was merely linked to economic and legal factors. However, in light of recent geopolitical processes and politically charged conflicts, political science has taken dominance in terms of intellectual property (IP) development and proclivities. In contemporary international politics, it is critical to explain and perceive IP tendencies and systems from the perspectives of political science and political economy, to consider appropriate retorts to processes arising from IPR conflicts in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan during the occupation. Azerbaijan had been confronted with limitations of its control over its territory due to the nearly three decades of the Karabakh conflict. In this regard, the article will answer questions related to the violation of intellectual property rights, the exploitation of goods and services, as well as the other IPR problems encountered by Azerbaijan during the occupation of Karabakh.

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