Uwagi do metodyki prognoz frachtowych
Loading...
Date
1972
Authors
Advisor
Editor
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
Title alternative
Remarks on the Methodology of Freight Forecasts
Abstract
Some remarks on the methodology of freight forecasts are presented in the
article. The problem of choise of the best method of freight forecasts is the subject
of this study. Linear regression functions of nine and eight variables and some
methods of analysis of time series of freight indexes are considered, and among
them — a method of harmonic weights, exponential smoothing and adaptive forecasting.
It is shown, that both the methods have to be used because, regression functions
better explain the mechanism of freight rates and they give better forecasts
of turning points. Adaptive forecasting, with parametres α=0,7; ß=0,38, give the
best forecasts among the methods of trend analysis.
Description
Sponsor
Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/2016
Keywords
Citation
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 34, 1972, z. 2, s. 159-173