Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny, 1979, nr 2

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O dyskryminacyjnych prognozach produktu regionalnego na podstawie pewnego szczególnego modelu zintegrowanego
(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1978) Starzeński, Oskar
A specific problem of multi-stage forecasting total production of a region is presented in the article. The analysis starts from an input-output model (1), in which branches have been divided into two groups: branches producing goods balanced on a region scale , and branches producing goods balanced within the whole economy . After distinguishing „strategic" branches in both sets, first a "demand" forecast of total production (X) is accomplished for the θ period according to (2) on the ground of estimated reduced form of econometric model of final production (3), in which decisive variables of a definite level are distinguished. With the aim of consistence preservation of production programmes for final production (Y) solution of the problem (4) is postulated, which serves as a "correction" of a forecast (2), and then calculation of . A corrected "demand" forecast of values of total production is in turn of service to determination of discriminative forecasts of total production from the "supply" point of view (6) satisfying a condition of minimization of cost function (7), connected with definite choice of a performance variant in respect of distinguished production factors.