Browsing by Author "Polovyi, Mykola"
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Item A forecast of international migration flows into EU countries until 2050(Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2018) Polovyi, MykolaThe subject of this paper is international migration into EU countries. The research objective is a quantitative estimation of the volume of international migration flows into European countries and their close neighbors until 2050. The forecast of international migration flows is based on the author’s own model of global international migration. The model is based on a synergetic approach and assumptions that the level of migration is determined first of all by the number of existing migrants from that country. The data used for the forecast is UN data on migration flows in 1990-2015, and the UN’s predictions regarding changes in population between now and 2050. The forecast is based on the medium scenario of demographic development offered by the UN. Countries with a current population of more than 5 million are taken into consideration as potential sources of immigration. The predicted values of the total number of international migration flows to each of the EU and neighboring countries for each five-year period until 2050 are determined. The predicted migration flows from EU countries are also determined. It is concluded that the forecasts allow us to claim that the problem of migration will continue for EU countries. However, the essence of this problem is not the prevention of excess migration, but attracting migrants to the countries of the ‘second Europe.’Item Institutional Mechanism to Ensure National Security in the Information Space of the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa UAM, 2020) Bondarenko, Sergii; Nagornyak, Tetyana; Polovyi, MykolaThe paper is devoted to an analysis of the institutional mechanisms that ensure national security in the information space of several leading countries – the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation. It is stated that institutional mechanisms that ensure national security in the information space of the leading countries all have a similar structure. The main components of these mechanisms involve public authorities (state leaders – president or prime minister, government, ministries, and agencies), local government bodies, civil society institutions, the academic community, business community, and the media. The gradual expansion of the system of institutions that ensure national security in the information space and increase in their powers occurs in all these states. The analysis also demonstrates the paradigm shifts in the development and implementation of US and UK information policy in the context of modern nonlinear processes. Paradigmatic shifts are currently being reoriented towards the interests and needs of target audiences, diversification of channels and mechanisms of the distribution of meaning (strategic narratives) in the information space, from vertical to horizontal interaction with internal and external audiences. Emphases are shifting to the involvement of a wide range of institutions and other stakeholders in the implementation of information policy and delegation of powers from the center to the periphery, while preserving the main parameters of the policy established by state structures.