Badania nad optymalizacją rozmiarów handlu międzynarodowego (model J. Tinbergena)

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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM

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The purpose of the paper is to get acquainted the Polish reader with the econometric model of J. Tinbergen and — if applied — with the obtained results of statistical analysis as well as J. Tinbergen's interpretations. The author undertakes also an attempt to assess the usefulness of said model to the optimization of international trade of the socialist countries. Stressing the undisputable valours of J. Tinbergen's analysis and not questioning the possibilities of adapting this model for the assessment ex post of the level of international trade within the countries of the socialist camp — the author draws attention to some difficulties related with the extrapolation of said model. The above mentioned difficulties originate from the methodological traits of Tinbergen's model as well as from the different principles which govern the international trade in the socialist and — on the other hand — in the capitalist countries. The Tinbergen's model is lacking the optimization criterion. As a basis for the assessment of the volume of international trade of various countries serves the average level of trade (on the international scale), which is also being defined as a „standard level", „normal", or „ideal" level. From the optimization point of view that criterion does not offer a possibility to assess the international turnover for a group of countries. Furthermore, it does not permit to assess positive deviations from the „ideal" level. The Tinbergen's model does not take into consideration the efficiency problem of international trade. This problem is very essential in the conditions of socialist economy, since there is no automatic mechanism of international market, which regulates the volumes of exchanges according to the degree of profitability of transactions. The adaptation of said model to the socialist economy is also very problematical, especially in the ex ante analysis, for which the extrapolation of the parameters values — would be a very practical solution.



Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/2016



Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 28, 1966, z. 3, s. 153-167



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Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Ministerstwo Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego