Badania nad optymalizacją rozmiarów handlu międzynarodowego (model J. Tinbergena)
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Date
1966
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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
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Abstract
The purpose of the paper is to get acquainted the Polish reader with the
econometric model of J. Tinbergen and — if applied — with the obtained results
of statistical analysis as well as J. Tinbergen's interpretations. The author undertakes
also an attempt to assess the usefulness of said model to the optimization
of international trade of the socialist countries.
Stressing the undisputable valours of J. Tinbergen's analysis and not questioning
the possibilities of adapting this model for the assessment ex post of the
level of international trade within the countries of the socialist camp — the
author draws attention to some difficulties related with the extrapolation of
said model. The above mentioned difficulties originate from the methodological
traits of Tinbergen's model as well as from the different principles which govern the international trade in the socialist and — on the other hand — in the capitalist
countries.
The Tinbergen's model is lacking the optimization criterion. As a basis for
the assessment of the volume of international trade of various countries serves
the average level of trade (on the international scale), which is also being defined
as a „standard level", „normal", or „ideal" level. From the optimization point
of view that criterion does not offer a possibility to assess the international turnover
for a group of countries. Furthermore, it does not permit to assess positive
deviations from the „ideal" level.
The Tinbergen's model does not take into consideration the efficiency problem
of international trade. This problem is very essential in the conditions of socialist
economy, since there is no automatic mechanism of international market, which
regulates the volumes of exchanges according to the degree of profitability of
transactions. The adaptation of said model to the socialist economy is also very
problematical, especially in the ex ante analysis, for which the extrapolation of
the parameters values — would be a very practical solution.
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Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/2016
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Citation
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 28, 1966, z. 3, s. 153-167
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ISBN
ISSN
0035-9629