Rozwój gospodarczo-społeczny Polski w latach 1971 - 1975 (Analiza ekonometryczna)

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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM

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The subject of the analysis is a problem of the theory of growth and econometric models. The concept of a complex analysis of the development of the Polish economy in 1971 - 1975, namely a model of dynamic equilibrium, is presented. The time horizon of the model has been divided into five shorter periods of time, each one year long, called stages. There was elaborated a macroeconomic multistage mathematical models in which are considered the effects of three basic factors of growth, namely: the amount of capital invested, the degree of modernization of the production apparatus and the "human capital", on individual components of the national income in various stages and in all the horizon. The "human capital" is understood as the potential of education, science, technical progress, health care, sport, tourism, rest, culture and arts accumulated over a certain period of time as a result of the activity of a society in the nonmaterial sphere of production. The subject matter of the paper is the optimization of production — financial flows in the national economy using a multistage transportation problem. As parameters of the model there have been assumed the components of the produced national income (amortization, wage fund, profit and import), called input, the components of the national income distributed (consumption, investments, export and inventories), called output and the coefficients of efficiency of input. Decision variables are the production-financial flows from the input funds to the output funds. The objective function is the minimization of the total social cost of economic activities over the whole time horizon. It is assumed that the model has been subjected to balance constraints formulated in the paper. From the analysis of the optimum solution it results that in the years 1971-1975 there will exist additional possibilities of a better utilization of productive resources and capacities of the national economy, particularly possibilities of raising the wage fund, the consumption, the investment outlays and the export and possibilities, of decreasing the inventories.



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Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 36, 1974, z. 2, s. 137-163



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Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Ministerstwo Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego