Międzynarodowa wymiana handlowa a deformacja światowego cyklu koniunkturalnego
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Date
1966
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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
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Abstract
The characteristic feature of the capitalist economy are its trade cycles,
alternating periods of rising and falling levels of economic activity with similar
characteristics in fluctuating output prices, etc. from one cycle to another. The history of crises — one of the cycle's phases — can be traced back to
the end of the XVIII century — but the first cyclical crisis of general overproduction
took place only in 1825. Then the scope of economic downturn or
contraction got gradually ever larger. The greatest world crisis had taken place
in the years of 1929—1933. Since then the capitalist economy did not experience
any world-wide depression, the world's conjuncture cycle got deformed.
A certain influence on the deformation of a cycle exerts the international
trade, an outer factor determining to some extent is course. The looming crisis
in 1937—1938 was finally checked by the outbreak of the world war II. After
the war the law of postponed demand — made itself felt in international trade
relations. This situation was particularly advantageous to the highly developed
capitalist countries. The first after-war collapse of conjuncture in USA took
place in 1948—1949. It was not strong enough, however, to pass its impulses to the
European continent, thus there was no mutual resemblance in the prevailing
phases of a cycle in the two greatest industrial regions of the world, This
situation repeated itself during the subsequent economic recessions which swept
the two continents. The changes in export and import indices in conjuncture
with specific growth or decelerating factors — explain the above mentioned
dissimilarity in the phases of a cycle.
The interventionist policies of a state which aim at preventing all too abrupt
changes in the volumes of foreign trade and in price fluctuations, in concert
with close cooperation with the monopolies and the shortdated American cycle
and the feebleness of the westeuropean recessions as well as the structural
changes in the international trade of the highly industrialized countries — all this
contributed to the deformation of the world's cycle. On the other hand, it is
difficult to measure the influence of the westeuropean integration processes in
the sphere of internal trade (in the framework of a community) on mutual penetration
of crisis impulses. The foreign trade can be — in that respect — even
a factor which facilitates the passing on of said impulses.
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Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 28, 1966, z. 3, s. 139-151
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0035-9629