Próba budowy demoekonometrycznego modelu gospodarki Polski
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Date
1984
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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
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Attempt at construction of demo-econometric model of Polish economy
Abstract
The study presents a structural form of demoeeonometric model of Polish
economy. Generally, demoeeonometric models are mathematical ones, which are
coding relations existing between basic economic and demographic values in formalized
way. They allow to examine mechanisms of interactions of economic and
demographic factors and to establish whether changes in demography are determined
by economic phenomena and vice versa.
The described model is linear with the exception of equasion determining
variables Y5, Y6. It consists of 58 variables, 39 out of which are endogenous. The
endogenic sphere of a model is divided into 6 blocks i.e.: employment, GNI, investments,
foreign trade, consumption and demographic phenomena. Dynamic series
of the period of 1960-1981 (21 years) became a basis of model estimation.
Demo econometric model of Polish economy will be used for ex-ante simulation
and construction of variant prognoses. Having assumed defined sequences of describing
variables for future periods, it would be possible to calculate expected
values for endogenous variables representing basic economic and demographic
phenomena and to find their paths of growth.
Description
Sponsor
Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/2016
Keywords
Citation
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 46, 1984, z. 1, s. 171-185