Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne, 2019, nr 2

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The impact of Brexit on the member states’ ability to build blocking coalitions in the Council
(Wydawnictwo Naukowe WNPiD UAM w Poznaniu, 2019) Kleinowski, Marcin
Using a proprietary computer program, simulations of voting in the Council after Great Britain’s withdrawal from the EU were carried out. In the case of some of them, a methodological innovation consisting in departing from the assumption that the emergence of each possible coalition is equally probable was used. The analysis conducted indicates that after Brexit the ability of the Council members to form small minimally blocking coalitions will change significantly. At the same time, the assessment of the ability of states to block decisions in the Council and made on the basis of the Preventive Power Index, differs fundamentally from the results of the analysis focusing on building small minimally blocking coalitions. This research is funded by the National Science Centre, Poland, under project no. UMO-2016/23/D/HS5/00408 (SONATA 12 grant) entitled “The Impact of Brexit and Unconditional Introduction of the ‘Double Majority’ Voting System on Decision- Making in the Council of the European Union.”