WSKAŹNIKI MONETARNE A INFLACJA W POLSCE W LATACH 1999-2003
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Date
2004
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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
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MONETARY AGGREGATES AND INFLATION IN POLAND IN 1999-2003
Abstract
Linkages between inflation and various monetary aggregates and other instruments of
monetary policy are a basic subject of central banks’ attention. This article aims at answering the
question, whether in the period of direct inflation targeting, being a strategy for monetary policy
in Poland, the shifts in instruments of monetary policy and monetary aggregates were a cause for
shifts in core inflation and inflation measured by CPI.
Central bank interest rates (such as lombard rate, reference rate, rediscount rate and
refinancing rate), reserve requirements, open market operations and monetary aggregates MO,
Ml, M2 and M3 have been brought under study. It has been decided to measure the influence of
these instruments on the three core inflation measures (15% trimmed mean, core inflation excluding
most volatile prices and core inflation excluding most volatile prices and fuel prices) and on CPI.
According to our results, shifts in interest rates levels are generally reflected in the inflation
level after 3 or 4 quarters. Reserve requirements ratios influence CPI to a much lesser degree
and do not influence measures of underlying inflation at all. Open market operations have no
impact on inflation either. As far as monetary aggregates are concerned, it is visible that only the
widest measures of money supply affect inflation.
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Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 66, 2004, z. 3, s. 225-244.
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0035-9629