Uwagi na temat koncepcji długich cykli koniunkturalnych N. D. Kondratiewa

Abstract

One of the concepts interpreting long run economic processes encountered in the capitalist states is the already classical theory of N. D. Kondratiev concerning the ,so called long surges. The adherrents to that theory explain the present economic difficulties of a crisis type with the fact that a majority of capitalist economies found themselves in a downward phase of the long N. D. Kondraciev cycle. The task of the article is examining the applicability of the long surges of N. D. Kondratiev in relation with the present economic situation of the highly developed capitalist economies. The theoretical discussion in the article as well as the empirical analysis allow to find that the roots of present economic recession in the capitalist states differ from those described by N. D. Kondratiev. Therefore there are no grounds to advocate the appearance of the so interpreted downward tendency of the long business cycle. The present economic decline of the capitalist states is effected by a crisis of socio-economic structures which is visibly manifested in difficulties to accumulate constant capital and in a decrease of productivity of that capital.