Podejście prognostyczne w badaniach naukowych
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Date
1988
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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
Title alternative
Prognostic approach in scientific research
Abstract
One of the conditions of ensuring to prognoses the image of the future consistent
with the reality is the way of treating the future by means of a „prognostic
approach". It is seldom explicated in research, yet it functions in a more or
less conscious way. In effect it is either characterized by a weak theoretical
justification or it is burdened with narrow pragmatism.
Each prognosis should be based on a so-called initial state, i.e. the knowledge
of a researched object. Otherwise one will obtain a forecast, not a prognosis. An
important problem to be considered here is the question about relations between
a prognosis and the future reality. A prognosis creates the imagined reality. However,
the above does not settle the question whether the propositions about the
future are true or false. Another question concerns the character of prognostic
procedure. One deals here with prognostic hypothetism referring to objects which
will appear in future or to objects which already exist yet may undergo changes
or disappear later. Prognostic hypothetism is a justified explanation of the future
reality.
Sometimes in research praxis it happens that the object of a prognosis is
treated as an autonomous entity, with an acting human being eliminated from
the analysis. In order to avoid the above, a prognostic approach should comprise
both bojective and subjective factors as basic elements of a social process. An
objective factor denotes the results of human activities, material bases and
conditions of those activities. A subjective factor denotes puposes, values, the
state of knowledge of the reality and the entire sphere of motivation to which
also the prognosis about the future belongs. Needless to say, it does not mean that
the future will be in agreement with the intentions of acting subjects. Treating
both factors integrally not only defines their role in creating the future, but
is the basis for explaining it as well.
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Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/2016
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Citation
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 50, 1988, z. 1, s. 279-291