Modelowanie obiegu wody i transportu materiału zawieszonego w dorzeczu Parsęty
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Date
2014-03-19
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Modelling of water circulation and transport of sediment suspended in the Parsęta river basin
Abstract
Problemem badawczym rozprawy doktorskiej jest geoinformacyjne modelowanie obiegu wody i odpływu materiału zawieszonego w warunkach zlewni młodoglacjalnej. Badaniami objęte zostało dorzecze Parsęty, które ze względu na jego wewnętrzną strukturę uważane jest za reprezentatywne dla obszarów młodoglacjalnych umiarkowanej strefy klimatycznej. Problem badawczy pracy zrealizowany został z wykorzystaniem numerycznego modelu hydrologicznego i jakości wody Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) zintegrowanego z systemem informacji geograficznej. Na kolejnych etapach modelowania ocenie poddawane były dane przestrzenne w różnej rozdzielczości i dokładności, a także procedury i algorytmy obliczeniowe w celu weryfikacji możliwości ich zastosowania w specyficznych warunkach środowiskowych dorzecza na obszarze młodoglacjalnym. Kalibrację i walidację modelu przeprowadzono w oparciu o dane pomiarowe IMGW z trzech posterunków hydrometrycznych na Parsęcie z lat hydrologicznych 1966-2010. Uzyskane wyniki pozwoliły na analizę zróżnicowania przestrzennego elementów bilansu wodnego oraz analizę serii czasowych odpływu wody oraz zawiesiny. Otrzymane wyniki charakteryzowały się wysokimi wartościami współczynników oceny statystycznej zarówno dla elementów obiegu wody, jak i odpływu zawiesiny. Przeprowadzono także próbę symulacji wpływu zmian klimatycznych na bilans wodny i odpływ zawiesiny. W analizie zastosowano scenariusze zmian klimatycznych A1 oraz B2 prognozowanych dla lat 2070 – 2100 dla obszaru Europy w projekcie ACACIA, których rezultaty wchodziły w skład tzw. Trzeciego raportu IPCC.
The research issue of doctoral dissertation was geoinformation modelling of water circulation and suspended sediment transport in the conditions of lowland catchment. The subject of the research included the Parsęta river drainage basin, which in view of its internal structure is considered as representative for the last glacial lowlands within temperate climatic zone. The analysis was carried out using a numerical hydrological and water quality model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with geographical information system. The spatial data resolution and quality for hydrological modelling was evaluated. At the following modelling stages the procedures and computational algorithms in order to verify the possibility of their use in specific environmental conditions of lowland catchment was also evaluated. Calibration and validation was performed on the basis of the data collected at three water gauging stations for the hydrological years 1966-2010 (the measurement data were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management). The results allowed the analysis of the spatial diversity of water balance elements and variability analysis of time series of outflow water and suspended sediment. The results were characterized by high values of the statistical evaluation coefficients for both water and sediment outflow. An attempt of climatic changes simulation impact upon the water circulation and sediment transport was also carried out. Scenarios of climatic changes forecast for the area of Europe for the years 2070-2100 in the ACACIA project, which was included in the third report of IPCC, were used. Scenarios A2 and B1 were applied in the analysis.
The research issue of doctoral dissertation was geoinformation modelling of water circulation and suspended sediment transport in the conditions of lowland catchment. The subject of the research included the Parsęta river drainage basin, which in view of its internal structure is considered as representative for the last glacial lowlands within temperate climatic zone. The analysis was carried out using a numerical hydrological and water quality model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with geographical information system. The spatial data resolution and quality for hydrological modelling was evaluated. At the following modelling stages the procedures and computational algorithms in order to verify the possibility of their use in specific environmental conditions of lowland catchment was also evaluated. Calibration and validation was performed on the basis of the data collected at three water gauging stations for the hydrological years 1966-2010 (the measurement data were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management). The results allowed the analysis of the spatial diversity of water balance elements and variability analysis of time series of outflow water and suspended sediment. The results were characterized by high values of the statistical evaluation coefficients for both water and sediment outflow. An attempt of climatic changes simulation impact upon the water circulation and sediment transport was also carried out. Scenarios of climatic changes forecast for the area of Europe for the years 2070-2100 in the ACACIA project, which was included in the third report of IPCC, were used. Scenarios A2 and B1 were applied in the analysis.
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Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych: Instytut Geoekologii i Geoinformacji
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Keywords
GIS, modelowanie, modelling, obieg wody, water circulation, transport zawiesiny, suspended sediment transport, dorzecze Parsęty, Parsęta river basin