Choice of Econometric Model for the Discriminative Prediction
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Date
1981
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Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM
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Wybór modelu ekonometrycznego dla predykcji dyskryminacyjnej
Abstract
The author occupies himself in the article with conditions that should be fulfilled by an econometric model that is supposed to serve a purpose of the discriminative prediction. After brief remarks on the subject of discrimination prediction (para 1) six fundamental conditions are discussed in the next part that should be fulfilled by a good model. In turn, Section 3 is devoted to discussion of the notions of efficiency and reliability of decisive variables. Efficiency is understood as intensity of stochastis connection of these variables with goal variables, and reliability of decisive variables — as probability of actual reaching the desired values in the predicted time by them. Section 4 is devoted to considerations on economic effectiveness of decisive variables changes of which are combined with cost of action and with reliability. Section 5 concerns elasticity of decisive variables (understood as a degree of ability to show significant changes values from time period to time period). Then, in the sixth part of the article proposals are presented of some aggregate measures enabling the analysis of the extent in which changes of goals variables, designed for the future, result from changes in decisive variables level, purely exogeneous variables, delayed endogeneous variables and from random factors.
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Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/2016
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Citation
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny 43, 1981, z. 4, s. 101-112