Global warming and climate change: science and politics
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Date
2013
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Publisher
Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza
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Abstract
The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global
temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per
year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threatened
by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model)
because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of
annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when
the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the
greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the
main greenhouse gas. The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from
the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less
alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases.
There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle
24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on
scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser,
the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept responsibility
for their projections.
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Keywords
global warming, temperature, sea level, ice caps, solar cycles
Citation
Quaestiones Geographicae vol. 32 (1), 2013, pp. 61-66.
Seria
ISBN
978-83-62662-62-3
ISSN
0137-477X