ItemChanges of agricultural landscape pattern – non-natural driving forces analyzing based on the North-Western Region of Poland(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Markuszewska, IwonaIn this paper, preceding changes and current situation in agricultural landscape pattern were elaborated as well as future transition was discussed. The North-Western Region of Poland was chosen as a study area, however, the research was conducted at the regional level, in provinces of this region including: Lubuskie, Wielkopolskie and Zachodniomomorskie. For analysis statistical data from Common Agricultural Census, containing the last two decades, between 1990–2010, were extracted. Based on established knowledge and proposed approach driving forces of landscape changes were identified. The research deals with the following aspects: 1) identification of underlying trends of landscape changes that took place over the study period, 2) finding driving forces responsible for cause-effect relationships in landscape alteration, 3) recognition of farmers’ reasons for what they took actions leading to landscape changes, and 4) identification of major current and foreseeable future tendencies of modification of landscape pattern. Political, economic and social driving forces, as the most affecting, were recognized and their influence on agricultural landscape structure was analyzed. ItemThe developmental stages of an accumulative cone of dry valley as an indication of change in natural environment conditions (Western Pomerania)(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Paluszkiewicz, RenataThe aim of this paper is to present the stages of development of an alluvial cone as an indication of change in natural environment conditions. a detailed research was conducted within the upland regions of Drawsko Lakeland. At the valley mouth of one of the erosional-denudational valleys an alluvial cone in question splays out. The imparity between the capacity of the erosional-denudational valley and the capacity of the alluvial cone indicates that the main stage of erosion had taken place before the cone’s deposition. During the beginning stage the material acquired from the dissection was most likely delivered directly to the channel of Dębnica river and was incorporated in the fluvial transport. The cone was formed during the later stage. The results of the radiocarbon analyses reveal that the formation of the alluvial cone and the valley associated with the cone took place during the Subatlantic. It was also estimated that the cone aggraded with the rate of approximately 3,9 mm per year. ItemLake evolution in the Żnin region in the years 1912–1960 (central Poland)(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Ptak, MariuszThe evolution of lakes, which, in the final stage, leads to their disappearance, is mainly based on the analysis of surface area change. However, there is one more, frequently overlooked process, which determines lake disappearance – namely the lake shallowing. The present paper presents the direction and rate of such evolution, taking both these processes into account. It is a comparative analysis of 9 lakes in the Żnin region – which has the greatest water deficit in the whole of Poland. Based on bathymetric plans from two periods (early 20th century and early 60’s of the 20th century), the author was able not only to evaluate the scale of surface area change but also to determine the value of lake basins volume change. Both these values were negative and amounted 9.1% and 14.9% respectively. Assuming that the said processes are invariable, the prospective period of lake functioning is about 500 years when taking into consideration surface area change only, and is 150 years shorter when allowing for aquatic resources change. The presented approach to lake disappearance analysis, which treats this phenomenon as a decline in aquatic resources rather than a simple decrease in surface area, is more reliable and therefore, scientific works in this field should take the results of lake shallowing into consideration. Item18th century Vistula river geography in view of Franciszek Florian Czaki’s maps(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Strzelecki, KrzysztofOld maps are proven to be very useful when it comes to solution of the modern research problems and are widely used in various science disciplines connected with specification of mutual relations between elements of the geographical environment. This fact stems from the increased consciousness of unique information recorded on old maps, which at their time constituted a basis for subsequent cartographical studies. The geographical characteristics of the Vistula river were depicted in a handwritten 12-sheet map made the first half of the 18th century by Franciszek Florian Czaki, a military cartographer. On the basis of his own terrain mapping, Franciszek Florian Czaki succeeded in creation of his work, which was intended to provide an example for the designed, detailed map of Poland, ordered by Józef Aleksander Jabłonowski, the Nowogród voivode, and later by the king Stanisław August Poniatowski. The map was fully based on terrain mapping, which included such details as: settlement, road and water networks, forests, land relief as well as main types of ownership: crown-, church-, and nobility-owned. ItemEvaluation of thermal conditions in Jeziory (the Wielkopolski National Park)(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Szyga-Pluta, Katarzyna; Półrolniczak, MarekThe purpose of this paper is to present selected methods of evaluation of thermal conditions in the Wielkopolski National Park and their initial characterization. The analysis was based on data from the automatic meteorological station in Jeziory measured during the period 2001–2010. The calendar of thermal classes graphically shows the variation in thermal conditions for each month and deviation from the standard adopted for the period concerned (Table 2). A good complement to the calendar seems the graphs of mean daily air temperature for months above and below the standards that enable their connection with the peculiarities of weather occurring in the area of Central Europe (Fig. 1). In addition to complete characterization of thermal conditions, specific number of days according to the average daily temperature ranges (Tavr): tavr. < 10°C, tavr. 10.1–15.0°C, tavr. 15.1–20.0°C, tavr. 20.1–25.0°C, tavr. 25.1–30.0°C and interdiurnal changes of average daily temperature (ΔTavr): Δtavr. < 2°C, Δtavr. 2.1–4.0°C, Δtavr. 4.1–6.0°C, Δtavr. >6.0°C were calculated (Table 3, 4). They were the basis for separating the year into thermal seasons (Table 5, Fig. 2). Ward’s method was used giving the best results in the case while both Tavr and ΔTavr were taken into consideration. The results obtained allow concluding that different methods of evaluation of thermal conditions applied separately do not give a full picture of thermal conditions of the area. Only a combination of results obtained using the Ward’s and calendar methods can give a complete thermal conditions characterization. ItemUncertainty of flow regime characteristics of rivers in Europe(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Wrzesiński, DariuszThe aim of the paper is to describe spatial differences in the uncertainty of features of the flow regimes of rivers in Europe on the basis of measures whose methodological assumptions derive from Shannon’s information entropy theory (1948). They included: the entropy of monthly flow volumes, the entropy of the flow distribution over time, and the entropy of maximum and minimum monthly flows. An analysis was made of monthly flow series for the years 1951–1990 from 510 gauging stations located on 369 rivers in Europe. It allowed a quantitative determination of the degree of uncertainty of the four regime characteristics, indirectly establishing the predictability, regularity and stability of their appearance and their spatial variability. In the procedure of identification of spatial differences among rivers concerning the uncertainty of their flow regime features, use was made of local indices of spatial dependence. On application of LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) based on Moran’s local Ii statistic, a typology of rivers was obtained in terms of the kind and statistical significance of spatial associations involving the uncertainty of the flow regime variables in question. ItemAfter Rio+20: Preparing for Sustainable Retreat?(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Nováček, PavelThe industrial age has brought us much good: a higher quality of life which is reflected in better healthcare and education, a longer life expectancy etc. But besides the indisputable benefits, the industrial age has also caused many problems which are now assuming global proportions. In 1987 UN Commission on Environment and Development attempted to propose how to enable people and whole nations to develop while sustaining functioning ecosystems and healthy environment. The key term became “sustainable development”. But problem with sustainable development concept is that it is so vague and “all-embracing”. Its biggest deficiency is the fact that it fails to attempt to even define human needs. The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20 conference, June 2012) did not change current unsustainable development trends. Therefore we should allow for and ponder the possibility that effort at sustainable development will fail and the human community will experience great civilization turbulence. Maybe it is too late for sustainable development, what we need is a sustainable retreat. Our abilities are limited and promoting sustainable development may prove to be beyond us. In comparison with our ancestors we have much greater opportunities. But this has not been counterbalanced by greater responsibility and foresight. We should explore and study future opportunities and dangers that could occur under certain conditions. These images of possible futures may help to make our present decisions more qualified and responsible. ItemGlobal warming and climate change: science and politics(Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza, 2013) Ollier, CliffThe threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threatened by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the main greenhouse gas. The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases. There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept responsibility for their projections.