Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny, 1981, nr 4
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Item Spis treści RPEiS 43(4), 1981(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981)Item Profesorowi Stanisławowi Borowskiemu(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981)Item Działalność organizacyjno-naukowa i dydaktyczna Profesora Stanisława Borowskiego(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Wierzchosławski, StanisławStanisław Florian Borowski, an outstanding economist, statistician and demographer, professor at the Academy of Economics in Poznań, for many years head of the Department of Economic Statistics and Demography, director of the Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, former Deputy Rector for research, died suddenly July 10th 1977 while conducting demographic surveys. Prof. Borowski was an outstanding scholar having great and original achievements in research. He left a great research outcome encompassing more than 250 publications, in that number 14 monographies and over 50 studies and dissertations. A substantial part of his publications was issued in foregin languages. As the scholar he presented himself as a very rich personality interested in many, different spheres of Knowledge. Prof. Borowski was the scholar of great caliber, of rare intellectual culture. He represented a deep and exploratory intellect. He was involved, with a great passion, in all his research activities, in which he presented his humanism as well as an uncompromising attitude when truth in science was concerned. Prof. Borowski was an outstanding research organizer. In Poznań Academy of Economics he established the Department of Economic Statistics and Demography. That department became one of the strongest demographic research centers in Poland being also respected abroad. In 1972 Prof. Borowski was appointed to a post of Chairman of the Comittee of Demographic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences, (he fullfilled this duty till his sudden death). As a research organiser in the field of demography he made agreat contribution to new research initiatives as well as to research development projections. He was an active member of the Polish State Commission on Population Policy founded by the Ministry Counsil. Thanks to his efforts an intensive cooparation with research centers abroad was developed. He organized several national and international conferences on demography. Prof. Borowski had a big share in education of young scholars. Thanks to his initiative the Subsection of Demometrie of the Polish Academy of Sciences has been created. That subsection has contributed to promotion of the newest statistical-mathematical methods in demography. Prof. Borowski confered a doctor's degree on 14 people creating a basis for development of his own, modern school of demography. He made a great contribution to a popularization of science being an editor of several scientific periodicals. He was an editor of the economic division of the quarterly „Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny", co-editor of „Poznańskie Roczniki Ekonomiczne", subeditor of „Studia Demograficzne" and editor of the annal „Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski". Prof. Borowski was entirely devoted to science. Unfortunately he could not finish his great work for the benefit of science. His health condition was weadend after many years spent in concentration camps during the last world-war and after many years of an intensive research work. An extremely modest, noble and honourable man, a scholar of rich intelligence and an indefatigable, broad-minded researcher departed from this world.Item Profesor Stanisław Borowski jako statystyk i demograf(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Wierzchosławski, StanisławProfessor Stanisław Borowski is one of the most distinguished researches of demographic phenomena in Poland in the post-war period. He was prepared for a research work not only thanks to his many-sided education (economics, law, mathematics) but also thanks to his personal predispositions such as deep intellect, rare organizational skill, great admirable diligence and consistency in accomplishing his research aims. Prof. Borowski's research interest was concentrated on several subjects among which the following have to be distinguished: 1. Statistical methods in population processes studies; 2. Studies of time-spatial trends of demographic and economic development; 3. Studies on factors of population reproduction. Prof. Borowski's methodological interests were concentrated on transformations of source-information into statistical cathegories, in quantification rules of mass-phenomena and on measurement of their numerical value. He paid a big attention to, the identification of statistical sources and to the comparative analysis. He created a basis for a new, unknown branch of statistics: source-knowledge in the field of socio-economic phenomena. The published articles concerning this new subject have been very well received by scholars in Poland and abroad. In his research work Prof. Borowski was using new tools-mathematic-statistical methods. Thanks to this he could create on a large scale scientific synthesis based on an enormous historical and contemporary sources. During the last years of his life he concentrates his efforts on factor, taxonomie and cohort analysises being a pioneer of their implementation in Poland. Being an advocate of a modern-type of numerical description of demographic phenomena he contributed to the development of a new discipline called demometry. He presented this attitude in many works. His inspirations in this field are also to be found in the doctor's dissertations of many of his students. The second part of Prof. Borowski's research effort concerns secular trends of the demographic development of the Wielkopolska region and of the whole country. One has to mention broad, historical studies on rural and nonrural labour market. In this field he created monumental works being a turning point in existing historical demography studies. He presented in them a new approach based on the implementation of the newest mathematical and statistical methods. This research approach is then continued in his studies concerning contemporary transformations of population. Prof. Borowski conducted studies on measurement of labour source resources in agriculture and on division of labour force between agriculture and non-agricultural branches of national economy. His three-part monography on economic and demographic development of Wielkopolska region in last 170 years is strongly related to this area of his research interest. He stressed there relations between land reforms, creation of modern agriculture, capitalistic and socialist industrialization and development of the Wielkopolska region. Studies on the Wielkopolska region created a basis for broad studies on the demographic transformations in the whole country. Using a rich empirical data Profesor Borowski studied a process of demographic revolution in Poland (so called demographic transition) and a tendency to a demographic stabilization related to socio-economic transformations in Poland. Broad studies on factors determining processes of population reproduction in Poland belong to the third part of Prof. Borowski's interest. Those studies were interrupted by his sudden death. They were conducted as a part of a broader subject "Optimization of Demographic Structures and Processes in Polish People's Republic". Prof. Borowski initiated and coordinated them in a close cooperation with the Comittee of Demographic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The implementation of rich and reliable statistical information was one of the characteristics of Prof. Borowski's research-approach. When information was not available or when available data could not be treated as reliable, Prof. Borowski and his students created with an enormous effort their own information sources. Prof. Borowski conducted on a big scale survey studies and laborious archival studies in the whole country. As a result a unique data bank on demographic processes in Poland has been created. Prof. Borowski's research output in the field of demography represents a fully mature scientific approach. It evoluated from analytical studies to theoretical and methodological synthesisses. Prof. Borowski has creatively contributed to the development and to the modernization of demographic sciences in Poland. Thanks to his efforts demography has found an important place among social sciences on national and international level.Item Profesor Stanisław Borowski jako historyk gospodarczy(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Rusiński, WładysławProfessor Stanisław Borowski, though professionally connected with statistics and demography, stalled his economic activity with research on economic and social history. As a participant of a seminar conducted by Prof. Jan Rutkowski, who was one of co-originators of the science of economic history in Poland, he earned first knowledge on research methods of economic historian. First of all, he learned to- esteem and use in practice principles of closeness and reliability in all scientific undertakings. He stayed true to the principles until the end of this life. After Prof. Rutkowski's death (1949) Stanisław Borowski put forth further scientific activity under direction of the author. The protection turned into a sincere, obliging friendship later on. Scientific output of Professor Borowski is impressive in the scope of economic history. It is mainly devoted to the history of Wielkopolska agriculture and country in the 19th and the 20th centuries. It comprises a few voluminous monographic works, f. ex. a great monographs entitled „Genesis and Labour Conditions of Agrarian Workers in Wielkopolska During Great Agrarian Reforms (1816 - 1860)", the work qualifying for assistant-professorship entitled „Stratification of Wielkopolska Country in the Years 1807 - 1914", numerous minor treatises and articles, methodic studies, papers prepared for scientific congresses and conferences (in which Prof. Borowski participated intensely) and critics of Polish and foreign publications in the scope of economic and social history. All Prof. Borowski's works are based on very profound source data. Owing to wide utilization of statistical methods and stress put on research on social structures they liken the trend represented by the French „histoire quantitative" Unusual dilligence of Professor Borowski won over the common respect for him. The premature death, unfortunately, put an end to his further scientific plans. His voluminous output, however, in the scope of economic history has remained. It occupies a very important place in Polish historiography.Item Stanisław Borowski jako badacz dziejów Wielkopolski(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Topolski, JerzyStanisław Borowski was a scientist, who combined integrally competences of economic historian, demographer and economist. Thanks to methodological and theoretical values He joined the group of best Polish historians and demographers. The Wielkopolska region, considered often with Pomerania and Silesia together, was a main subject and field of research for Professor Borowski, allowing to investigate and to verify regularities of socio-economic and demographic development. S. Borowski started His scientific output with an extensive study devoted to development of labour mechanization in Wielkopolska agriculture in the years 1823 - 1918. Further research aimed at exploration of social and economic action allowing to explain changes in agriculture and situation of peasants in Wielkopolska in the 19-th century. The first place was then occupied by research on influence of incorporating the country in the sphere of market. S. Borowski published two voluminous books on that subject. They significantly enriched our knowledge about the Wielkopolska's country and agriculture in the 19-th century. Simultaneously demographic structure of Wielkopolska in the course of ages was examined by S. Borowski. Demographic changes were always explained in the light of historic events and in the course of phenomena examination in their long-run development. The research pivot is showing and explaining processes of transition from traditional pre-industrial population development model to a modern model, and so analysis of demographic revolution. In that context S. Borowski examined among others factors that determined the process of dying out, questions of emigration from the Polish lands under German sector in the 19-th century and demographic development of Wielkopolska from the end of the 16-th to the 20-th century. A few studies were devoted to methodological considerations on statistical sources. They are original thoughts, still having their full inspirational value. Particularly, penetration in analysis of appraisal criterions of statistical sources should be underlined. S. Borowski was a modern scientist. He combined comprehensive empirical studies with theoretical and methodological thought in His research.Item Jakościowe i ilościowe aspekty badań naukowych w świetle statystyki(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Steczkowski, Jan; Zeliaś, AleksanderIn the elaboration basic problems of qualitative and quantitative aspects of research in empirical sciences have been presented. The central idea of considerations is an opinion that placing these two aspects in opposition is unjustified and also that a division of statistics into quantitative and qualitative is conventional. Difficult qualitative problems of investigated reality can be solved thanks to quantitative methods which fulfil an ancillary role in qualitative analysis. Development of social sciences has caused intensive interest in statistical methods. Such a situation has raised new qualitative problems for statistics. Necessity of measurement improvement of indirectly unmeasurable phenomena has caused development of statistical methods suitable for weaker scales. Application of statistical methods based on these scales simplifies and also objectivizes cognizance. In order to avoid deformation of the studied processes it is obligatory to supplement formal analysis with analysis of the merits of these processes. This quantitative analysis has to be submitted to qualitative analysis.Item Czas, przestrzeń i ich struktury formalne(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Ponsard, Claude; Rutkowska, CzesławaConsideration on formal structures of time and space mainly based on humanistic and social sciences is proposed in the study. The first part answers the question whether these formal structures are similar or different. The author supports the opinion that time possesses one formal structure while there are many different formal structures in the case of space. Time has a structure of complete succession by inclusion relation. It is verified not only by mensurable (or chronological) time, but also by structural (or operational) time. On the other hand, space is connected with so differentiated presentation ways, that it produces various configurations. It results from this, that formal structures with which abstract spaces are equiped, together with considered physical and human spaces are numerous and more or less strongly dependent on this whether metric spaces, topological spaces or graphs are concerned. A problem of supplementary nature towards the first one, and namely of comparative properties of time and space, introduced by their adequate formal structures, is discussed in the second part. The discussion concerns four main properties: direction, reversibility, homogeneity and continuity. Time direction is obvious while space direction refers to examination of isotropy properties. Irreversibility of time is visible for its reversibility, which is sustained sometimes, is a false problem. On the other hand, reversibility problem for space depends on symmetry properties, except directed and non-symmetrical graphs (condition of the lack of peripheries). While time is homogeneous, space is once homogeneous and once heterogeneous. Continuity is connected with the nature of time. In the case of space it depends on conditions of accessibility, and continuity notions in empirical meaning and in mathematical meaning are not similar, unless in some particular case. An opinion is underlined in the conclusion, that time is less abundant than space in proper formal structures and comparative properties.Item Wpływ agregacji i współliniowości na wyniki regresji wielokrotnej w analizie przestrzeni(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Wunsch, Guillaume; Rutkowska, CzesławaSimulated data are used to test the impact of aggregation and of multicollinearity on the results of the multiple regression analysis. Aggregation increases the level of the multiple correlation coefficient. Furthermore, contextual (or ecological) effects can conceal the true relationship between dependent and independent variables. Redundant variables due to multicollinearity are usually eliminated by stepwise regression procedures. However, the variables thus selected differ from one model to another: the actual underlying relation is not dislosed. Various ways of coping with aggregation and multicollinearity are proposed as conclusions.Item Zjawisko oscylacji w przyspieszonym rozwoju gospodarczym(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Hellwig, ZdzisławSince a long time it has been a very puzzling question for economists: how should national income be divided for consumption and accumulation to avoid economic stagnation on the one hand and introduction of too top gear into economic system on the other. Many economic models have been constructed, which should enable answering this question with the aid of various methods or more advanced mathematic tools. It is a common feature of these models that production, savings, investement processes have been considered as some sequential time functions and given in the form of statistical time series. At the same time such function has been sought (known as a strategy of national income division) for which adequate values of an integrated income would be the highest. All the attempts have been of only descriptive significance, since no practical utilization of them has been noted down in literature. In the paper the author is trying once more to answer the old question: how to divide the national income. The considerations concern optimal partition of national income for parts destined for accumulation and consumption with the aid of a mathematical model, in which a Boolean vector is used for optimization. The suggested model has such advantage that its parameters estimation is possible on generally available information of the Cential Statistical Office and it does not call for complicated mathematical calculations. It benefits by simplification of finding the optimal solution and using optimal strategy of accumulation in practice results in a significantly better issue than when stable accumulation rate is maintained. It enables at the same time — what's the most important thing — fulfilment of a strategy of accelerated economic growth with simultaneous quick raise of the population's standard of living. As a result the model enables controlling the economy in a cyclical way. It assumes introduction of accumulation, investment and consumption cycles. Its realization calls for adequate preparation to elastic controlling the economy from technical and economic specialists. From the society a great maturity is required for the acceptance of oscillations and fluctuations.Item Choice of Econometric Model for the Discriminative Prediction(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Pawłowski, ZbigniewThe author occupies himself in the article with conditions that should be fulfilled by an econometric model that is supposed to serve a purpose of the discriminative prediction. After brief remarks on the subject of discrimination prediction (para 1) six fundamental conditions are discussed in the next part that should be fulfilled by a good model. In turn, Section 3 is devoted to discussion of the notions of efficiency and reliability of decisive variables. Efficiency is understood as intensity of stochastis connection of these variables with goal variables, and reliability of decisive variables — as probability of actual reaching the desired values in the predicted time by them. Section 4 is devoted to considerations on economic effectiveness of decisive variables changes of which are combined with cost of action and with reliability. Section 5 concerns elasticity of decisive variables (understood as a degree of ability to show significant changes values from time period to time period). Then, in the sixth part of the article proposals are presented of some aggregate measures enabling the analysis of the extent in which changes of goals variables, designed for the future, result from changes in decisive variables level, purely exogeneous variables, delayed endogeneous variables and from random factors.Item W jakim zakresie gospodarka krajów zachodnich powinna być poddana poszerzonej kontroli państwa?(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Tinbergen, Jan; Byrt, AndrzejIn Western economies the role of the state was minimal in the early phases of industrialization. The old liberalist doctrine was that the maximum of social welfare would automatically be attained if every individual strove for maximum personal welfare. Subsequent economic thinking as well as experience have taught that this applies under very restrictive conditions only. Correspondingly an increasing number of tasks have been assumed by the state, of which a series of examples are given. This is not the end; new tasks are now seen as a consequence of pollution, especially by the development of motor traffic, of the chemical industries and as a consequence of the claim of workers to more industrial democracy. Recently the process of inflation has added the need for control of incomes so as to make income distribution more equitable. Examples are given of the instruments the Netherlands government has now been given by parliament in order to control high incomes. In addition a cultural crisis prevails requiring a stricter application of existing law and new educational policies. Moreover the establishment of the new international order will add new obligations to national governments. Such new obligations may be created by treaties concluded in order to further the development of low-income countries, to reduce the danger of pollution, of overfishing, etc. International taxes may be among the new instruments of national development policies. With the increase in state tasks the danger of overbureaucratization — already expressed in „Parkinson's law" — will grow further. Structural changes will be needed in order to reduce this danger. Generally speaking decentralization of a number of activities is needed; in other words, delegation of tasks to lower hierarchical levels. Another way of reducing the degree of bureaucracy is the simplification of unnecessarily complicated regulations, for instance in social insurance or assistance systems.Item Charakter i miejsce demografii we współczesnej nauce(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Pavlík, Zdeněk; Bielówka, LeokadiaDemography originated by reason of development of empirical approach in science and it has been closely connected with statistical methods from the very beginning. A strong position of methodology in demography and poorly developed demographic theory are explained by that. The process of demographic study starts in contradistinction to many other empirical domains from preparation of demography subject with the aid of statistical description and only then it comes to its closer examination. A basic part of information about reality vanishes in the preparation process and an important position of demographic analysis in demography is explained by that. From the point of view of development principle — on which hither to existing science classifications are based — demography places itself on a border-line between natural and social domains. This principle is, however, insufficient so it is necessary to complete it with complexity principle. Demography can be judged as a rudimental domain that occupies itself with reproduction of human populations as a resulting process as well as with most important factory bs which this process is influenced. In the same way as each other empirical domain demography can be internally divided according to a criterion: complex-fragmentary, real-abstract, general, -detailed, into four basic sub-domains (Fig. 3): population demography, demographic analysis, theory and methodology of demography. Demography is extensively connected with other empirical domains in the frames of science. These domains deal with other aspects of human existence, human populations and society. It is also connected with methodological domains and the Marxist and Lenin philosophy. The demography experience finds its use in economic and social planning and it is a basis of population policy as a part of social policy.Item Nauka demografii a przyszła liczba ludności(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Urłanis, Borys. C.; Walkowiak, HalinaThe significance of demographic sciences has been underlined in the article. The sciences acquire still more importance today. Forecasting questions should be the main subject of interests of those sciences. The narrow ideas of some scientists had to be emphasized that the earth could feed population about 10-13 times more numerous than at present. All the opinions, according to the author, that are based on „uncompetent optimism" (a notion formulated by D. M. Gwissiani — Member of the Soviet Academy of Sciences), should be rejected. It can be assumed on the ground of modern trends in reproductiveness and mortality that the crude natural growth rate will approximate zero at the end of the 21st century. It means stabilization of the earth's population at the level of 13 milliards people on the turn of the 21st century. It should be mentioned here that the earth's resources allow to increase production of foodstuffs and of other means of population's maintenance at the level adequate to human standards about 3 times. It fully suits the triple growth of the earth's population.Item Umiędzynarodowienie problemu demograficznego(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Horváth, Robert A.; Rutkowska, CzesławaThe author revives the brilliant past of demographic science, with after its final start in the 17-th and 18-th centuries found its proper denomination in the middle of the 19-th century after some hesitation and its definite shape among other disciplines only on the turn of the 19-th and 20-th centuries. From this time on its importance and significance was rapidly growing, especially in international life among social sciences and international practice. The author raises the question of how the process of the internationalization of the demographic problem was produced in the 20-th century, by evocating the main stages of this process, At the beginning in 1927, it was the League of Nations that took the initiative to create an International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. It was inaugurated in 1928 and held its first world congress in London in 1931. In this international scientific framework, however, only the demographic problems of the great powers were dealt with, i.e. the failure of the rigidly formulated Malthusian tenets and their possible consequences for the Western world. In this scientific climate the problems of the losers of World War 1 passed unnoticed, despite the fact that radical views of the internationalization of the demographic problem were elaborated and even politically exploited under the „Lebensraum" — theories aspect. This antagonism soon became apparent by the disruption of the 1937 Berlin Congress of the IUSSP, the 1947 reorganization of which started a new era in the internationalization of the demographic problem. This new period was again characterized by the prevailing authority of the new international body, the United Nations organizations, and by a shift of the international demographic problem towards the developing nations and their „demographic explosion". The international demographic congresses held after 1947 were desperately struggling with the complexity of the problem involving demography, population policy, economics and even sociology. Despite efforts to accumulate a solid scientific basis to the solution of the internationalized, demographic problems, they have not brought up generalized solutions, optimists and pessimists remaining strongly divided. These major difficulties worked in favour of a kind of „nationalization" of the problem around 1965 by looking for different national ways and means of the solution in the developing countries with admission of the necessity of restrictive population policies. From this time on a trend toward the international politicization of the problem is perceptible in demography as a new approximation on the side of or superposed on the mainly demographic or economic policy alternatives. The result of this change in scientific approximation may be seen in the 1974 Bucharest Congress held under the auspices of the UNO and the underlying World Population Plan of Action and its linkage with human rights and women liberation. The author claims that the provisions of this plan for international co-operation are opening up a new era in this field, the development of which may not yet be foreseen in its main aspects, but may be characterized by its optimistic approach to the problem.Item O pewnym problemie analizy wzdłużnej. Ocena zdarzeń demograficznych metodą kohort(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Pressat, Roland; Rutkowska, CzesławaA longitudinal analysis requires utilization of statistics of demographic events located in cohorts history. And so, too often, and in practice always, these statistics are prepared by age (in completed years) of units or by antiquity (in completed duration periods) of cohort's elements. That should be then separated what refers to age given in numbers of events regarding each of both cohorts contributing to event's appearance at that age. The article is devoted just to a method allowing to do such a separation, explaining it on the ground of statistics referring to first marriages (of single people) of French women in 1962. Such a re-grouping of data by generations delivers to satisfactory results.Item Model demograficzny w zastosowaniu eksperymentalnym(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Mazur, Denis Peter; Janc, AlfredA demographic model of fertility age curve is simulated to determine the effect of successive shitfs in women's aggregate age at birth. The age limits of women's reproductive span their age structure, and the annual number of livebirths are held constant in the first experiment" The second experiment involves an assessment of variation in women's reproductive-age span, Two experimental populations are distinguished: (1) the actual population by age, and (2) the life table type. The shape of age curve of fertility has a minimal affect on the cumulative rate for the life table age structure. When based on the actual population by single years of age, the cumulative rate of total fertility tends to fluctuate with changes in the peak age of women at childbearing. An increase in the average age of women at birth under the absolute constancy of parameter values usually augments the rate of total fertility. A slight decrease in completed fertility is observed for the life table type of age structure when the upper limit of women's reproductive span is advanced early. In the final simulation, when requirement of the constancy of parameter values is much relaxed the test corresponding to an intermediate value of the average age at childbearing generates the highest level of completed fertility. The author suggests that the most desirable approach seems to be a combination of analytic properties of the model with simulation.Item Badanie własności prognostycznych modelowych tablic trwania życia typu W. Brassa(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Zasępa, RyszardModel life tables can be generated according to the hypothesis of W. Brass by acceptance of an adequate table as standard one and by using the formula (1). The possibility was then examined of using such tables for mortality forecasting. Tables generating a system, by which the tables are generated, depends upon two parameters α and ß, interpretation of which has been described. Model tables closeness has been examined on the ground of existing life tables for Poland by town and villages when (I) the life table 1970 - 1972, or (II) an average of the life tables 1960-1961 and 1970 - 1972 were taken as a standard. Differences in real values lx and in values from model tables occured. An example has been given for men in Table 1, and results have been shown. The results rx occur systematically and runs are created by their signs. Forectasting that is based on model tables delivers biased forectasts. It can be significantly diminished by taking into account the biases estimated from the past data. Such a forecast has been done experimentally in two variants for the year 1980. In the variant I in estimation of parameters α and ß data for age-groups x=1, 5, 10, 15, ..., 85 years have been taken into account, and for the variant II data for the years x=1, 75, 80, 85 have been omitted. Differences in expectation of life at age x, ex have been presented in Table 2, and in Table 3 — death pro probability nqx within the interval (x, x+n) for both forecasts variants. Comparisons lead to the conclusion that both variants are too optimistic, and the projection obtained from variant II is relatively more relevant. The data for the last one are presented in Table 4. Expectation of life at age x, ex and death probability have been compared in Tables 5 and 6, for the years 1970, 1973,1976 and the projection 1980, respectively. The necessity of the Brass model extension to more than two parameters is stated in the conclusion. Further studies will shown, whether proper modifications lead to more realistic mortality projection.Item O potrzebie opracowania koncepcji i metody szacowania struktury ludności bez zniekształceń i zakłóceń(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Valkovics, Emil; Janc, AlfredThe interpretation of age-pyramids representing population structures qualified as distorted may be found mostly in the form of specifying the causes of „cuts" and „protrusions" seen on them, without taking their multiplying effects exerted mostly on the number of birth into consideration. The calculation of age-pyramids or population structures referring to identical dates of observation necessitates to eliminate the effects deemed as causing distortions, occured extraordinarily during the century preceding the observation of the population on the life history of each of the birth cohorts (generations) constituting the population. After calculating (estimating) the population sùrplusses or losses regarded as extraordinary, as well as their structures, we have to elaborate the hypotheses on mortality, nuptiality, fertility and external migration of their — and of their descendants — further lives. Afterwards, on the basis of fictive numbers of the populations of the related birth cohorts for the termination of the effects causing distortions up to the date of the observation „population projections" are to be realized. The age-pyramid and population structure without distortion may be compared with the real (distorted) age-pyramid and population structure in several ways. The calculation of the structure of subpopulations without any perturbation — constituting the population — necessitates also the elimination of the effects of differences in the mortality and external migration of the subpopulations, beyond the so-called rectangular standardization of the age-specific rates of the subpopulation observed transversally. If it is not possible, we have to apply the hypotheses of independency and continuity. However, neither the elimination of the effects of differences observable in the calendar within the individual cohorts concerning the longitudinal sums of the age specific rates of subpopulations can be neglected. Beyond the transversal population structures without any distortion and perturbation, also their longitudinal versions referring to individual birth cohorts (generations) can be calculated, as they are in interrelation with the transversal versions of the former one, that may be described also in mathematical way.Item Spadek płodności we Francji w ciągu ostatniego piętnastolecia(Wydział Prawa i Administracji UAM, 1981) Calot, Gérard; Rutkowska, CzesławaA visible decrease in fertility can be observed in all Western Europe countries from 15 years. More and more frequently families confine themselves to a couple of children. An analysis of the total fertility rates delivers an observation that there occurs a steady decline of them after a transitory increase in the post-war period. It is a result of évolution of family structure by a number of children. After the World War II an increase in percentage of women bearing three or more children occured with simultaneous decrease of childless and one-child families. Then during the last fifteen years the percentage of childless couples has not significantly changed, but a family percentage with one child and especially with two children has increased at the cost of numerous families. A fertility calendar has been also a subject to evolution. Fertility analysis by generations, starting from women born about 1895, according to the author allows to formulate two hypotheses. The first one is that the Western societies are on a road to self-annihilation and that they will be replaced by other emerging civilizations in future. According to the second hypothesis we have to do here with a new type of „oscillatory" fertility, and at present we find ourselves only in depression of demographic cycle from which we must get out in a more or less distant future. No statistical data allow to verify the hypotheses ultimately at present.