Przegląd Strategiczny, 2019, nr 12
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Item Perceptions of China’s Role in the MENA Region, The 5th China and the Middle East and North Africa Conference, Shanghai, 17–18 May, 2019(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Dahl, MichałItem The United States and Poland after 1989, Kraków, 27 May, 2019(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Wycisk, MartinItem Russian Scientific Journals in the Area of International Relations – 2018 Review(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Macuhin, AlexandrItem SIPRI Yearbook 2018. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security and Report from the 3rd Meeting of the Consortium of Academic Departments of Strategic (and Security) Studies(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Magiera, MaciejItem The ‘Museums of the Frontline’ in Stepanakert, or on the Armenian Remembrance of the Armed Conflict with Azerbaijan(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Lorenc, MagdalenaNagorno-Karabakh is currently considered the most militarized area in the South Caucasus region. The key political decision-makers of Armenia come from Stepanakert. The issue of the future of this territory is an important element of any electoral campaign in Armenia. Any plans to make concessions to the Azerbaijani side are opposed by Armenian nationalist and veteran circles. The memory of the armed conflict with Azerbaijan remains vivid and is reflected in numerous commemorative initiatives in the NKR, as exemplified by the Memo- rial Museum of the Perished Soldiers and the Memorial Museum – The Union of Relatives of Missing Warriors of the NKR in Stepanakert. These institutions are a synthesis of museum and funeral practices. To quote Aleksander Wallis, replacing ‘monuments’ with ‘museums,’ it may be concluded that they “were created to historicize current events” which “evoke the greatest emotions, tensions and conflicts” and stem from “profound moral needs.” However, unlike monuments whose “artistic shape and symbolic meaning [...] permit different interpre- tations in formal and artistic categories as well as in the categories of meaning, ideology and politics” (Wallis, 1968), the two museums do not give such freedom. Besides commemora- tion, they also serve the purpose of constructing and consolidating hostility towards Azerbaijan – the raison d’être of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict is the foundation of the idea of Artsakh and the main political implication of the spatial values represented by the MMPS and MMMW. The unique character of these museums, however, is not related to the politicization of re- membrance, which is a common feature of such establishments, but rather to the short temporal distance between the armed conflict and the emergence of the exhibitions. Consequently, the memory of the museums’ creators has not been ‘borrowed’ and the message of the museums reflects the current attitude to Azerbaijan.Item Non-Governmental Organizations as Actors of Ukrainian Politics of Memory(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Kornievskyy, Oleksandr; Rozumnyi, OlexiiThe article investigates the role of non-governmental organizations as subjects (actors) of Ukrainian politics of memory, as well as the mechanisms used by them to influence the forma- tion of the historical memory of Ukrainian society. The authors resort to comparative qualita- tive research, using an empirical-interpretative version of the method of studying specific cases (case study). The objects of analysis are: the Center for the Study of the Liberation Movement, “Tkuma” Ukrainian Institute for Holocaust Studies, and the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center. The results of the study indicate that NGOs are actively influencing the process of form- ing the historical memory of Ukrainian society. Methods of such influence can be both direct (through various educational activities) and indirect (through interaction with state institutions responsible for the implementation of national memory policy). The effectiveness of this influence is determined by such important factors as the availability of sponsors with significant financial means and/or lobbyists in government agencies and institutions that are part of the state memory policy infrastructure.Item Digital Intervention in National Political Systems in the Conditions of Contemporary Information Society(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Volodenkov, Sergey V.The article analyzes the phenomenon of digital interference with national political systems in the conditions of the modern information society and the evolution of the Internet as a space of political communications. It is shown that digital intervention is relevant but at the same time a complex multidimensional phenomenon of contemporary politics. In many respects, the potential of the digital interference phenomenon is closely related to the substantive and functional features of the functioning and transformation of the contemporary Internet, which has been actively used when changing political regimes in many countries. The initiatives of countries to form the sovereign national segments of the Internet space are, on the one hand, an attempt to protect their political systems from external influence and invasion, to ensure their own political stability, and on the other hand, they pose risks to the democratic potential of the Internet. The article substantiates the thesis that the phenomenon of interference with elections in actual practice often becomes not so much an objective process as an instrument of information warfare, mass political propaganda and discredit of political opponents, a manipulative tool that can be actively used not only by authoritarian regimes with a low level of democratic development. It is noted that differences in understanding and defining the essence of the Internet by various countries give rise to a significant potential for political conflicts on a global scale. This leads the author to conclude that it is necessary to form institutions that are able to prevent and regu- late information conflicts in the Internet space, as well as reduce global political risks (including risks associated with potential interference in the electoral process of sovereign states), forming a collective responsibility in the functioning of the global Internet.Item The Effect of the ‘China Factor’ on Taiwan’s Media System Security as an Example of the ‘Privatization and Outsourcing’ of Censorship and Propaganda in the Digital Age(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Skrzypczak, JędrzejThe study aims to examine the security of Taiwan’s media system. Its main hypothesis is that the People’s Republic of China is pursuing a deliberate strategy of influencing Taiwan’s media at various levels by a range of means. Some authors refer to this approach as the commer- cialization and outsourcing of censorship and propaganda. The approach has had the effect of routinizing self-censorship. Research questions are also asked about the methods and strategies adopted by China to influence Taiwan’s media, including the commercialization and outsourcing of propaganda. The idea is to ‘hire’ various state institutions and agencies or their subordinate organizations, commonly from the private sector and from third countries, to deliberately disseminate and endorse views and ideas aligned with China’s interests. The strategy can be described as an invasion of sorts that is not of a coercive and/or external nature but rather is performed from the inside, aimed directly at the hearts and minds of the country’s citizens. The paradox is that democratic media systems that protect freedom of speech are more vulnerable to this strategy. An attempt is made to demonstrate that the ‘China factor’ is increasingly present in Taiwan’s media landscape. Its effectiveness may have grave consequences not only for the me- dia system itself but also for the political system of the Republic of China (Taiwan) in general. In addition, the article seeks to identify the most appropriate and effective strategies and means for countering and combatting such threats. In drafting this article, a range of research methods were employed, including that of inductive and deductive inference, the historical method (used to outline the historical background behind significant social and political transformations in Taiwan), the institutional and legal analysis method (used to explore the influence of institutions on specific social phenomena), the legal text exegesis method as well as the statistical method (to describe Taiwan’s media system).Item Selected Aspects of Iran’s Hydrological Security(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Sakson-Boulet, AnnaThe main objective of this paper is to analyze Iran’s hydrological security and to verify the hypothesis that the low level of Iran’s hydrological security is one of the country’s most important ecological threats. An attempt to answer the following research questions is made using the quantitative method, decision-making method and institutional and legal analysis: (1) what water resources does Iran have, and are citizens suffering from a shortage of water?; (2) is the management of groundwater, closed reservoirs and rivers sustainable?; (3) do the actions of the Iranian authorities safeguard the hydrological security of the state? The analysis of the factors of Iran’s water security carried out in this paper leads to the conclusion that this country is facing a serious ecological crisis resulting from shrinking fresh water resources.Item Water as a Weapon of War in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Krzymowski, AdamThe paper aims to present water as a weapon of war in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin, as well as the role and significance of water for a new architecture of global security. The main goal of the study is to find an answer to the research question of whether water the Tigris-Euphrates Basin will be still a tool for fighting or cooperation as an effective tool for facing strategic challenges. The research hypothesis is that the issue of challenges related to water in the Euphrates River basin will, first of all, follow the social and political-economic relations between Turkey, Iraq and Syria and external factors. The research was conducted using a descriptive-analytical method. Moreover, this research is based on the neorealist theory of international relations, and the concept of international constellation analysis, as well as the theory of neo-institutionalism. Future anarchical global security architecture will lead to a hegemonic system of water relations. Therefore, without international coordination and far-reaching strategy in the face of the emerging anarchic global security structure, stable water cooperation in this region cannot be reached.Item Political Security in Authoritarian Systems with a Resource Rent Economy: a Result of the „Social Contract” and High Resource Prices?(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Akhremenko, Andrei; Shulika, YuliaMost researchers believe that states which are rich in natural resources are more able to main- tain political stability in comparison to countries without such an access to exceptional profits. However, some rent resource autocracies are unanimously considered fragile, and their ability to extract maximum rents does not always contribute to political and economic security during price fluctuations. Based on the idea that the state’s ability to extract resources imposes on it certain ob- ligations, the research question touches upon the quality of governance as a supposed core factor, which mediates the resource dependence and political security in terms of stateness and the ability to fulfil the “social contract.” The latter is described as implementation of political decisions, pro- vision of public goods and services. However, the quality of governance is substantially different in various autocratic systems. Using case-study and descriptive statistics, the authors try to reveal the context and ascertain which factors trigger the horizon length of autocrats` political strategies during rising and falling resource prices. The authors affirm that resource dependence negatively affects political security less due to an absence of economic growth during price breaks, and more due to the struggle of political elites for the redistribution of resources, absence of disciplinary mechanisms, weak representation and accountability systems, and poor enabling environments as a basis for quality of resource management. The authors conclude that political security in autocratic resource economies is achieved through the coexistence of political will and triggers, conducive to specifying the length of the planning horizon.Item Dimensions of Social Diversity in Europe(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Szewior, KrzysztofThe aim of the publication is to learn the dimensions of social differentiation by applying socio- economic indicators, as well as to indicate the importance of economic and social conditions as the leading factors in building the social order of national states and the European Union. The main research question concerned the issue whether and under what conditions it is possible to achieve improvement in the level of social cohesion? The experience and knowledge allow to assume that the most important in achieving social and economic cohesion are: the level of economic development and socio-political consensus regarding the distribution and circulation of social goods, rather than the model of national social policy. The adopted assumption was verified, confirmed the dominant role of the social contract, the scope of social solidarism and the developed GDP. These elements determine social development and determine the competitive advantage of national economies. In view of the weakness of institutions and EU-wide solutions, they consolidate the multidimensional disproportions between European societies. The analysis is based on research methods of politics and social policy. Statistical data was provided by national and EU institutions.Item China’s Strategic Economic Growth (1978-2018)(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Moiseev, Vladimir; Nitsevich, Victor; Sudorgin, OlegToday, China is the leading economic power, its gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 1979 to 2018 in 50 times, to $13,2 trillion. This is 10 times the GDP of Russia and almost 30 times the GDP of Poland. China’s nominal GDP is the second in the world after the United States. The authors not only reveal the factors of the Chinese phenomenon, but also attempt to analyze the main components of China’s success in economic development. The purpose of this study is a comprehensive analysis of key features of China’s economic development strategy. Тhe authors examine the key features of China’s economic development strategy, the priority directions of its modernization: public administration reforms, state regulation of the economy, analyze the features of attracting national and foreign investments for a breakthrough in socio-economic development. Тhe authors used the analytical, comparative, institutional and sociological methods.Item Mega FTA as a Signal Against Trade Protectionism Focused on the EU and Japan FTA(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Park, Sang-ChulThe research questions of the paper are whether the EU Japan FTA can be a win-win approach or win-lose approach? Moreover what are reasons for the two parties to complete the FTA and which industrial sectors can be mostly profited in both parties? Last, but not least how to esti- mate impacts on the global economy? The hypotheses are FTA can reduce trade protectionism, and the former can generate more economic benefits to the participating countries than latter in the long term based on the trade dynamic group. The research methodology is to use cross sec- tional analysis based on statistic data and information collection as well as trade policy analysis. Additionally, critical analysis of literature and inference analysis are employed. The conclusion of the research is that the EU Japan FTA can generate about 0.76 percent GDP growth to the EU and about 0.29 percent GDP growth to Japan additionally per year next ten years long. Furthermore, it also creates new employment in both parties. Although the EU Japan FTA can create some looser particularly in East Asian economies such as South Korea, China, and Taiwan, their total amount is estimated as very low. In the global economy, the EU Japan FTA can generate much larger gains than lost. As a result, it is not only a win-win approach for the EU and Japan, but also for the whole global economy if it enters into force.Item The Issue of Self-defence Based on Crisis Management and Combat System Krav Maga(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Woźniak, MikołajThe goal of this publication is to confirm that the pattern of operation, developed based on the Krav Maga combat system and crisis management, provides an individual with safety against the threat of a street attack. At the beginning of the article, the issues of self-defence were discussed, the Krav Maga combat system was presented and the most important elements of the crisis management theory were introduced. Later in the paper, an analysis of each of the crisis management phases was carried out in relation to the risk of a street attack. The author answers the research questions in detail: What is the best source through which you can learn effective self-defence? How should an individual behave in particular phases of crisis management against the threat of a street attack to ensure its own safety? The analysis made in the paperwork based on available sources, observations and the author’s experience gained gives an unambiguous confirmation that combat systems are the best source through which one can learn effective self-defence, because they take into account all the elements that accompany a street attack. Following the scheme included in the publication, every person, regardless of age, sex or physical posture can effectively increase their own personal safety.Item Social Determinants of Crime and Hatred Incidents at Mass Sports Events in Poland(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Jarczewski, Waldemar; Bogdalski, PiotrCrime and hatred have been a permanent part of mass events organized in Poland. The situation is the most difficult in the case of football matches, especially at the national level. Despite legal changes and many measures adopted by sports clubs, the police and other institutions, not only has the situation not changed but there are symptoms of its deterioration. It is extremely worry- ing that these informal groups form structures that operate following the principles characteris- tic of organized crime. The subject of study in this article are the phenomena of crime and hatred occurring at mass events organized in Poland; its purpose is to identify the causes and present conclusions regarding necessary actions, based on an analysis of statistics and reports. Methods characteristic of theoretical studies have been employed developing this study, as well as the results of surveys conducted in 2014. The basic research problems involve finding answers to the following questions: • – Did the determination of police in ensuring the safety of the EURO 2012 final tournament calm the mood and improve security of mass events? • – What is the current scale of crime, hooligan acts and collective violations of security and public order in relation to mass events organized in Poland today? • – Are the solutions in this area systemic, durable and consistent? The hypothesis was that, although public security authorities have been implementing a wide range of measures, crime and deep-rooted hatred towards enemy clubs and ideological opponents continue to be a hallmark of football fan circles and thus of some mass events organized in Poland. The inconsistent continuation of good practices adopted in the past, perceiving the problem only in terms of isolated incidents, and the lack of statistics that would help to prepare precise scientific analyses, all require moderation in predicting positive changes in this narrow area of public security.Item Security Priorities and their Perception by Local Communities. A Survey of Population in Wielkopolska 2015-2017(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Nowiak, WojciechThe aim of the article is to present the results of studies carried out in Wielkopolska regarding the perception of security by local communities, declared priorities and the impact of public debate and the media on these priorities. The studies were carried out in the former administra- tive region of Konin in 2015, 2016 and 2017. As the analysis shows, the narrative regarding individual and collective threats presented by politicians and the media had a large impact on individual priorities. This is evident from the assessment of the threat to national security and the assessment of such phenomena as terrorism, immigrants or the possibility of aggression from the East. With regard to individual security and changing priorities in this area, the impact of stabilization resulting from the implementation of social programs of the Law and Justice Party, with a special focus on the “Family 500 plus” program, is clearly noticeable. The results of the studies explicitly recommend their continuation in the years to come.Item Migration Policy as Instrument of Ensuring National State Security(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Burda, Mikhail; Gerasimova, Irina; Ochacha, MargaritaIn the article, the authors analyse the relationship of political processes, migration policy and national security of the state. The methodological basis of the research is dialectical, comparative and institutional methods. The dialectical method revealed the dynamics, current regularities and contradictions in the formation of the state migration policy. The compara- tive method contributed to identify characteristic features of the migration policy formation of some EU countries and Russia, taking into account the transformation of political systems. The institutional method allowed exploring the interaction of public authorities with other institutions of civil society. In order to process the empirical evidence, quantitative and quali- tative research methods were used. The factors of the migration attractiveness of the state, the stages of the migration process and migration risks are considered. In this regard, special attention is paid to the migration crisis in modern Europe. It also analyses the growth factors of the popularity of right-populist parties and the idea of the sovereign migration policy of individual member states of the European Union. Special attention is paid to the descrip- tion of the implementation plan for the “Prague Process” mechanisms on the example of the integration mechanisms of migrants to Austria and the Czech Republic, the participation of government bodies and civil society institutions in these mechanisms. Some features of the migration system of the Russian Federation are also considered in the context of ensuring national security. The research presents and analyses some statistical data on migration in Russia and global migration in the world.Item Dilemmas Related to the Poland’s Participation in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Tomaszewska, Paula; Pohl, ArturThe aim of the article is to show the dilemmas related to the Poland’s participation in the Chi- nese Belt and Road Initiative. The theory behind the paper is that the Belt and Road Initiative has divided the mainstream of public discourse into two main threads: an optimistic option – one that sees opportunities in the participation in the initiative – and a pessimistic one, high- lighting the threats to the security of the Polish state. The authors will answer the following research questions: how is the BRI presented in the Polish public discourse? What are the main opportunities and challenges resulting from Poland’s accession to the initiative? A desk research analysis of all types of Polish-Chinese relations will also be conducted.Item African Dimension of the Belt and Road Initiative(Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa Uniwersytetu im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu, 2019) Kaczmarek, FilipThe research purpose of this paper is to examine the role of the BRI in China-Africa relations and the mutual interdependence between the BRI and other forms of Chinese presence in Africa. In order to attain this goal, the method of analysis of secondary data will be employed regarding concluded agreements, trade exchange, Official Development Assistance (ODA), foreign direct investment (FDI), debt, instruments of soft power and plans for the future. The analysis allows the several conclusions to be drawn. The BRI is so flexible that it can be extended in a relatively simple way and in a short period to other African countries. The BRI is the structuring factor in China’s strategic approach to Africa and can give new impetus to Chinese trade, investment and contracts in Africa. The former institutional co-operation framework that encompassed the whole of Africa was very general and did not result in the identification of such concrete sec- toral priorities as is the case with the BRI. The Initiative has exerted influence on China’s policy in Africa. There is no doubt that the Initiative’s core task in Africa is infrastructure connectivity, but one of the tasks proposed for the future is industrial relocation. If this task is accomplished, it may be fundamental for Africa’s development.